ESRI/PTSB for September

The Irish Property Bubble (2006) The Republic of Property
1

[code] Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) – Following is a summary of September Ireland
house prices from permanent tsb and ESRI in Dublin:
*T

                   Sept.    Aug.    July    June     May   April   March
                    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007

============================================================================
-------------------------- YoY -------------------------
National -2.8% -1.9% -0.7% 0.9% 2.6% 5.1% 7.4%
-------------------------- MoM -------------------------
National -0.3% -0.3% -0.4% -0.5% -0.8% -0.8% -0.6%
--------------------- Price in EUR ---------------------
National 299,483 300,375 301,267 302,605 304,166 306,619 309,071

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2

:open_mouth: :unamused:

3

At some stage the PTSB/ESRI index will have to ‘adjusted’ significantly to reflect the truth. Prices are falling by at least .50% per month.

4

[code] Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) – Following is a breakdown of September Ireland
house prices from permanent tsb and ESRI in Dublin:
*T

                   Sept.    Aug.    July    June     May   April   March
                    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007

============================================================================
-------------------------- YoY -------------------------
National -2.8% -1.9% -0.7% 0.9% 2.6% 5.1% 7.4%
Outside Dublin -3.4% -2.9% -1.8% -0.4% 1.5% 4.1% 6.7%
Dublin -3.4% -0.6% 0.5% 4.1% 7.6% 10.6% 11.7%
New Houses -1.7% -1.2% 0.1% 1.7% 3.3% 5.5% 7.0%
Existing Houses -4.8% -1.8% -0.4% 1.0% 2.4% 4.7% 6.4%
First Time Buyers -4.7% -2.4% -1.2% 0.6% 3.3% 6.5% 8.9%
Second Time Buyers -3.1% -2.0% -1.0% 0.7% 2.6% 5.0% 7.2%
Commuter Counties -4.7% -3.7% -1.2% 0.9% 3.0% 4.8% 8.0%
3 Bed Semi -2.4% -2.3% -1.4% 0.2% 2.3% 5.6% 8.0%

============================================================================

                   Sept.    Aug.    July    June     May   April   March
                    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007

============================================================================
-------------------------- MoM -------------------------
National -0.3% -0.3% -0.4% -0.5% -0.8% -0.8% -0.6%
Outside Dublin 0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.9% -0.8% -1.3% -0.6%
Dublin -1.2% -0.1% -1.9% -1.3% -1.2% 0.1% 0.1%
New Houses 0.0% -0.4% -0.4% -0.7% -1.0% 0.0% -0.7%
Existing Houses -2.2% -0.4% -0.3% -0.3% -0.8% -0.8% -0.6%
First Time Buyers -1.6% 0.0% -0.4% -0.9% -1.8% -0.8% 0.1%
Second Time Buyers -0.3% -0.2% -0.7% -0.5% -0.5% -0.9% -0.5%
Commuter Counties 0.1% -1.3% -0.3% -0.7% 0.3% -1.8% -0.8%
3 Bed Semi 0.6% 0.9% 0.5% -1.4% -1.9% -0.9% 0.7%
--------------------- Price in EUR ---------------------
National 299,483 300,375 301,267 302,605 304,166 306,619 309,071
Outside Dublin 257,372 256,991 257,372 257,945 260,234 262,333 265,767
Dublin 405,343 410,466 411,069 418,905 424,631 429,754 429,151
New Houses 296,796 296,796 297,879 298,962 301,128 304,161 304,161
Existing Houses 295,398 302,143 303,492 304,391 305,290 307,763 310,236
First Time Buyers 264,548 268,904 268,904 270,093 272,667 277,617 279,795

                   Sept.    Aug.    July    June     May   April   March
                    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007

============================================================================
Second Time Buyers 336,111 337,119 337,875 340,143 341,906 343,670 346,946
Commuter Counties 325,813 325,568 329,732 330,712 332,917 331,937 338,062
3 Bed Semi 302,982 301,197 298,520 296,958 301,197 306,998 309,675
--------------------- Index Levels ---------------------
National 134.3 134.7 135.1 135.7 136.4 137.5 138.6
Outside Dublin 134.9 134.7 134.9 135.2 136.4 137.5 139.3
Dublin 134.5 136.2 136.4 139.0 140.9 142.6 142.4
New Houses 137.0 137.0 137.5 138.0 139.0 140.4 140.4
Existing Houses 131.4 134.4 135.0 135.4 135.8 136.9 138.0
First Time Buyers 133.6 135.8 135.8 136.4 137.7 140.2 141.3
Second Time Buyers 133.4 133.8 134.1 135.0 135.7 136.4 137.7
Commuter Counties 133.0 132.9 134.6 135.0 135.9 135.5 138.0
3 Bed Semi 135.8 135.0 133.8 133.1 135.0 137.6 138.8

NOTE: For the index, base year = 2003.
The commuter counties are Louth, Meath, Kildare and Wicklow.
3 Bed Semi shows the prices for 3 bedroom, semi-detached houses.
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Second hand houses got hit the hardest in Sept.

5

I’d just like to repeat what was stated on another thread: John Beggs, Cheif Economist at AIB stated in an internal meeting with staff that the ESRI/PTSB number was not reflective of reality and that prices are down at least 10% and possibly as much as 15% from their peak.