EU growth again, but . . .

Max_Headroom · November 15, 2009, 12:58am

Fri, Nov 13 2009, 14:43 GMT by UniCredit Research

fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/friday-notes/2009-11-13.html

Review. It is now official: In the third quarter, the eurozone emerged from the deepest recession since the Great Depression. With +0.4%, EMUwideGDP posted its first expansion again since the beginning of 2008, although it was slightly below consensus. Germany and Italy led the pack in terms of growth. France disappointed, while the Spanish economy continued to contract.

Preview. Even though the momentum still carried over into the fourth quarter, the (pace of the) recovery is not sustainable. This holds true primarily for the first half of 2010 (cf. chart). Once government stimulus programs have ended and inventories been replenished, the impulses from final domestic demand will be lacking for self-sustaining growth. Given the bleak labor market outlook, private consumption throughout the EMU will not post growth again until the second half of 2010. We do not expect a real recovery until 2011

https://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Reports/2a585f32-5c3a-4539-970b-4be9098205f0/dfasfsdaf_20091113145121.jpg

watch_wait · November 15, 2009, 1:42am

At least the sucking sound is dissappearing in the international market,
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