Sure the deficit for Q1 2013 was €3.7bn announced last week. They’ll be lucky to keep it below €13bn by year end.
Growth at all costs dam it!!!
Mesmeric, in a scary way - like a slow motion car crash
So do you reckon the average punter who converted euros to sterling/dollar accounts and who took ryanair flights to the continent opening accounts is now starting to bring it all back home?
The risk of euro break up is even greater now than ever, the spin merchants have successfully diverted attention from that eventuality
Been there bought the T Shirt,money repatriated a good time since and now hopefully to be invested in bricks and mortar in the next few weeks.
Seriously, what makes you think the coast is clear now vs when you put your money abroad?
Is it simply ennui?
The only reason to move into Irish property now is if you think that dropping out of the Euro would see private debts to Irish banks in Euros converted to Punts. Reducing your mortgage debt load probably quite significantly over time.
I happen to think that that’s exactly what will happen. But it’s going to be plenty of fun watching it all blow up.
That’s a massive gamble unless your income comes from outside the State. You could find yourself with redenominated income but debts in Euro.
From what I’ve read there are plenty of Icelanders up that particular shit creek, albeit they started out with Euro debts before the crash.
Daniel, how soon do you see it happening and are there any particular precursors that you’d expect to see before it happens? I know we’ve been down this rabbit hole on the Pin before but I’d be interested to hear your thoughts on the process and the fallout.
As you say this is a gamble…but would you not get the same potential benefit by buying in cash repatriated after the breakup/breakaway??
Judging by recent history, things would have to get worse than Greece and Cyprus before we exit.
Capital controls, 60% youth unemployment, riots, and they’re still in.
You have to be extremely brave to have any assets in the country if you genuinely believe a exit is going to happen.
A conflagration resulting from the following will cause a radical change in our politics;
Further falls in house prices
Entering a 2nd bailout
Necessary cuts in social transfers
Croke Park 3 with a massive reduction in public pensions
Extended and protracted private pension fund taxation
debt to GDP percentage escalation with falling exports
Reducing work force participation and exposure of the ever rising unemployment rate
Ongoing emigration at historic levels
Rising peripheral taxes cars, houses, assets and income including corporation taxes will be further taxed
I think the turning point will come at the next general election, if a party sells the benefits of returning to an Irish currency in the wake of the actions above, I believe that we will decide to leave the euro.
If not then Ireland, like other peripheral parts of currency unions, will end up like Wales, North East of England or N Ireland with a static economy, much lower standard of living, porr investment and debt laden for 10 years at least, except without transfers from London/Brussels.
A currency devaluation is the only move in our power to save this and the next generation from a total melt down in living standards
If I earn in Punts then how is dropping out of the Euro going to reduce my mortgage burden?
If your income does come from outside the state then you’re really laughing. But if it doesn’t -as will be the case for most people- then there will be no alternative than to transfer the Euro debt into Punts, it simply will be unserviceable, and there won’t be any upside to keeping it in Euro anyway because the banks will be zeroed.
Icelanders who borrowed in Euro are entirely different - they knowingly took on foreign denominated debt because they thought it would weaken versus their national currency. It didn’t, tough. As I said: entirely different scenario. The malaise it causes actually indicates exactly why Irish private debt would have to be redenominated in Punts from Euros.
I think it will happen soon after Cyrpus, Greece or Portugal leave. All three are equally likely to jump ship, maybe Greece is slightly shorter odds. When one leaves, I actually expect the Euro currency to hold on fine giving people a false sense of confidence. Then the country that has left will see a (almost immediate) turn around in its GDP numbers and employment numbers (particularly as it steals tourists from the other Med countries - remember tourism is between 10% and 20% of GDP for a number of these states). For example, Cyprus cannot stay in if Greece leaves; Spain (sharing a 1000 mile porous border) cannot stay in if Portugal leaves. It would be like us trying to stay in if Sterling suddenly devalued by 50%, we’d be out in a flash.
I used to be a big believer in the Euro. Unfortunately the numbers and economic misunderstandings mean it is simply not a sustainable union.
Not the end of the world though, it would be the low point of the depression we’re currently trapped in.
Keep your Euro’s out of irish based banks!
Anybody had any success with investing their pension abroad? rg SSAP etc
The question is, what will be sacrificed first, in the attempt to save the Euro.
Not just in terms of money, although that will definitely come first.
This is like a re-run of the gold-standard, which was very similar in many respects to the Euro project - in essence, the gold standard was a political project too - an attempt to extend the domestic market system to the international field.
If you look back, you will see that everything was sacrificed in the vain attempt to save it. - There was such a strong belief in it.
Back then, observe how the self-regulating market was sacrificed at its altar; the balance-of-power-system likewise; and finally, the whole concept of the liberal state itself.
If the Euro is to collapse, we have a long way to go.
So what’s your take on gold?