Eur Wedge On De Edge


#1681

People who control governments and want to maintain their positions would and could make the decision to do so if they felt it to be jeopardized (by people not paying their debts and paying back what they owe them for stuff that they’ve bought, etc.).

As you’ve said, it’s happened before. It could happen again. It wouldn’t be the first morning that I’d be worried about. It would be the following ones.

At the moment in socialist Europe the way it is that even those who don’t work get incomes. Some of them get incomes more than those who would work for less. There is actually a strong impetus at low earning levels in this country to choose not to work and to enjoy relatively better conditions (in some respects, not all admittedly).

So it’s actually those who are unemployed that are holding onto power. They’ve become used to handouts. And the receiving of them. They are likely to vote and to swing in a political way to those who ensure their payments.

If unemployment goes to 50% (we’re near enough to that already in this country if you consider unemployment without age boundaries). Note that we’ve got more people not working than we do who are (not necessarily unemployed (i.e. include children, the sick, the old age etc), but the economic end point is essentially the same).

It’s a very sad state of affairs.


#1682

The ruling elites in many countries could have their Euro debts effectively written off if they left the Euro and denominated their debt into a new local currency they could print themselves.


#1683

They’re not worried about their debts, they’ll get the plebs to pay them. It’s their lifestyles they’re concerned about and if leaving the euro threatens that then they’ll stay in.


#1684

with what happened in cyprus and their “bailin” of depositors and with the increased likelyliness of our “pillar” banks needing more money do you think its possible they would ever consider going below the 100k limit? I have only modest savings but increasingly I think it would be best to spread my money across a few accounts just in case… or maybe the paranoia is getting to me!


#1685

Do everything possible to protect yourself - after the pension fund levy nothing is off limits.


#1686

Never say never but I can’t see deposit holders under 100k being subject to haircuts.


#1687

If I had to guess the consequences of a bail-in and capital controls I would have predicted riots, looting, mass protest, civil disobedience and politicans being lynched. Since none of that happened in Cyprus the government must be confident about pulling the same trick here without upsetting the status quo.

A lot of people will have taken precautions on the assumption that up to 100k will be guaranteed so the bar will have to be set lower to have the desired outcome. How much lower I have no idea but whatever it is there will be a lot of people in for a shock.


#1688

Is it possible to hold a euro account in a branch of one of the ‘pillar banks’ in Northern Ireland and would that protect the funds against a bail-in???


#1689

Who knows. All of these edge cases, like UK banks with branches here, and Irish banks with branches elsewhere, will be up for grabs. You should be safe with a Euro account held abroad, but they may decide to tax it at 80% if you bring it back in. There’s a Russian saying that applies: if the shit hits the fan, prove to them that you’re not a camel.


#1690

That’s why I decided to lock in some of the decent interest rates on offer from Irish banks last year. If you’re going to get mauled anyway, you might as well do it such a way that you can still show a profit over a few years after, say, a 10% mauling (optimistic I know).


#1691

I assume my shares which make up the majority of my savings would be safe in this scenario? UK companies mostly…


#1692

Diversify diversify diversify. I wouldn’t feel comfortable holding 100% equities at the moment.


#1693

In a bail-in scenario? Would have thought so, although it’s conceivable that it depends on how they’re held.


#1694

What about an investment in German property ?


#1695

Hi Eddie long time no hear :stuck_out_tongue:


#1696

Wha, you mean Ireland? :wink:


#1697

Can’t see how that would be a problem, although you never know what taxes will apply on bringing currency back into the country.


#1698

True. But we are talking in this thread about a lot of uncertainty. I’m looking for a way to reduce that. Re the Eddie Hobbs comment, I’m not thinking in terms of a syndicate. My interest, first and foremost, is not to lose money. I’m after protection of my savings. Any gain would be considered a bonus.


#1699

Just go the German Bond route then. You now need to buy through a German bank, can’t do it direct any more.


#1700

Did that, through a stockbroker, in the first 6 months of 2012 for a small negative return. When I say that I don’t want to lose money I mean that I, at least, want to match inflation. Might take another look at bond yields though to see what’s on offer.