Euro break-up now a "possibility" - Noonan

[HouseBuyer]

telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina … aties.html

Firstly, the notion of exiting the Euro was ignored as being too ridiculous to even comment on.

Then an exit of the Euro is completely dismissed by the government.

Now, we have Michael Noonan openly admitting that a Euro exit is a possibility and that no “detailed contingency plans” have been drawn up. In other words, he is saying that we’re now actually discussing the matter and have started to draw up a contingency plan.

[wii4miinow]

Looks like the end is very near for sure now.

Denial First.
Let’s not speak about it second.
Then admit it is possible while denying any plans are being made.

A bit like the IMF are coming etc.

I think we’re looking at a Christmas Time/New Year significant change of affairs in the Eurozone.

[slasher]

selective editing by the Torygraph; those comments were reported on the wires yesterday - and it was business as usual. Noonan’s position hasn’t changed

“Obviously, we have thought about it, but it’s a very remote possibility,” he said.

[roc]

The UK are fucked themselves and they’d like to be involved in any EU wide resolution of the problems. But they’re on their own. Nobody in Europe cares about them so much as they’re outside the EU. If there was a Euro break up they might find more willing ears to take an interest in their problems.

[Mossy_Heneberry]

The UK are fucked themselves and they’d like to be involved in any EU wide resolution of the problems. But they’re on their own. Nobody in Europe cares about them so much as they’re outside the EU. If there was a Euro break up they might find more willing ears to take an interest in their problems.

They’re not outside the EU. Anyways, nobody really gives a damn about anyones else accept their own interests.

Here’s a good article by Daniel Hannan.

standpointmag.co.uk/node/4208/full

[YorkieBar]

the choice seems to be, in very simple terms.

fiscal union

or

euro break up.

when you think about…it should never have been any other way.

I don;t know how to create polls, but would be interesting to see which option people would prefer.

[roc]

The UK are fucked themselves and they’d like to be involved in any EU wide resolution of the problems. But they’re on their own. Nobody in Europe cares about them so much as they’re outside the EU. If there was a Euro break up they might find more willing ears to take an interest in their

problems.

They’re not outside the EU. Anyways, nobody really gives a damn about anyones else accept their own interests.

Here’s a good article by Daniel Hannan.

standpointmag.co.uk/node/4208/full

Sorry I meant Eurozone. And I disagree with your second sentence in this context. The whole aim of the European project was to make the interests of European countries convergent, and the Euro played a very large part in that (that the UK decided not to play a part in, thus their current relative isolation). It is this convergence of interests that constitutes the bigger European picture in many terms, historical, economic, fellowship and more. This bigger picture will drive the smaller picture of monetary device imo.

[Larry]

The take-away from that article is not the stuff about a Euro break-up. That’s mainly just rhetoric and doom-mongering aimed at concentrating minds, and in any case is not likely to effect Ireland.

Rather, the take-away is that it is the most up-front admission yet that the government’s strategy is to be good girls and boys, pay all “our” debt up front, and then morally blackmail the EZ into scrubbing out some portion of that debt later.

[23rdbuchan]

the choice seems to be, in very simple terms.

fiscal union

or

euro break up.

when you think about…it should never have been any other way.

I don;t know how to create polls, but would be interesting to see which option people would prefer.

I would prefer fiscal union. The Euro has made travel so damn easy and predictable in the Eurozone. It has also made price comparison much better etc., etc., etc.

The pros surely far outweigh the cons.

[YorkieBar]

the choice seems to be, in very simple terms.

fiscal union

or

euro break up.

when you think about…it should never have been any other way.

I don;t know how to create polls, but would be interesting to see which option people would prefer.

I would prefer fiscal union. The Euro has made travel so damn easy and predictable in the Eurozone. It has also made price comparison much better etc., etc., etc.

The pros surely far outweigh the cons.

i agree, subject to concession on low corporation tax…

[sorehead]

According to Simon Carswell, Brian Hayes also mentioned the DoF’s new activity - contingency planning.

irishtimes.com/newspaper/fin … 04928.html

THE MINISTER of State for Finance Brian Hayes has said the department had been involved in contingency plans in case there was a break-up of the euro or the establishment of a two-tier euro.
Speaking at a business conference in Dublin, Mr Hayes said that “contingency planning is part and parcel of every government department, particularly the Department of Finance”.
Asked what the plans involved, the Minister joked: “It is a bit like someone says in a middle of a war, ‘If I told you that, I’d have to shoot you’.”

[Open_Window]

Moron.

Nice to see how the practice of using “business” meetings a means to slip out information / communicate to the public.

BIFFO was a fan of that tactic too.

[lord_vader]

id love to see their plan A, B, C D, etc. No doubt they already have a plan in place to cover every conceivable outcome and have just been playing the village idiot to fool merkel/sarky/Nato/Geithner. And they certainly have fooled everybody

Where is peter matthews these days?

[johnnyone234]

how can you plan unless you what way the wind is blowing or where the punches will come from?
As mike tyson once said, Everybody’s got plans… until they get hit.

[Grizzly_Adams]

Then admit it is possible while denying any plans are being made.

Actually he denied that no **detailed ** plans existed - that does not mean no plans. What constitutes *detailed *is anyone’s guess because as you know … it’s all in the detail

[YorkieBar]

So has Brian Hayes been switching all his savings into (a) gold (b) renminbi © swiss francs or (d) all of the above.

[BoyRacer]

Why leaving the euro might not be so scary -> independent.ie/business/euro … 46860.html

Unfortunately, our predicament is far graver now than it was in early 1993. The banks are bust. We have enormous debts. Any choice we make will have unpleasant consequences. We have two alternatives: bad and worse. However, staying in the euro is increasingly looking like a worse or even the worst choice.

However, we may not even a have a choice. While most of the doomsday thinking up to now has focused on what would happen if we either left or were ejected from the eurozone, last week’s dramatic events raise the very real possibility that the eurozone will disintegrate and that instead of it shrinking to a Germanic core, the single currency might disappear altogether.

there is more

[Coles2]

So has Brian Hayes been switching all his savings into (a) gold (b) renminbi © swiss francs or (d) all of the above.

I dunno, but our Minister for Finance has put his money where his mouth isn’t.

A Link to The Journal.ie, Michael Noonan - an owner of German Bonds

[whackojacko]

id love to see their plan A, B, C D, etc. No doubt they already have a plan in place to cover every conceivable outcome and have just been playing the village idiot to fool merkel/sarky/Nato/Geithner. And they certainly have fooled everybody

Where is peter matthews these days?

Was he on the Late Late on Friday , part of the seanad members singing “bridge over trouble waters” with a gospel choir ???
I couldn’t look myself , the missus said it would upset me too much.

[BoyRacer]

Nomura: Investors Must Consider Potential Euro Breakup -> online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-201 … 09152.html

In a “full-blown euro zone break-up,” where the currency ceases to exist, redenomination risk becomes more complex, he said. That could lead to the rise of a special currency that tracks a basket of all the new local currencies, and exists mainly to settle contracts originally denominated in euros.

Under such a scenario all euro-denominated contracts could also be reverted to local currencies, but that leads to even more questions, Nordvig says. What if a British bank loans a Polish company euros, Norvig asks. Does the loan get paid off in pounds or zloty, he questioned.

If only one or two members leave the euro, the risk to investors comes mainly from any contracts executed under local law in the exiting countries, he said. These obligations would be more likely to be exchanged into local currency than contracts governed by foreign law, Nordvig said.

For example, Nomura estimates that outstanding Greek debt was issued under local law, and could be redenominated into a new drachma. However, eurobonds issued under British law or dollar-denominated bonds issued under U.S. law would likely remain in euros or dollars, Nordvig said.

there is more

The Euro in a Break-up Scenario - Michael Hart -> economonitor.com/analysts/20 … -scenario/

The option that probably makes the least economic sense (though it has been advocated by some), is a unilateral exit by Germany, perhaps because it is unwilling to shoulder the required fiscal transfers or face the inflationary risk induced by ongoing ECB accommodation. Such a move would be equivalent to a deval/exit by all 16 other EZ member states though and compound the aforementioned currency mismatch problems on corporate and financial balance sheets.

there is more