Euro Elections (3 seats (or 4))
Frances Fitzgerald (Fine Gael) 22 FG 29% in latest IT poll
Barry Andrews (Fianna Fáil) 18 FF 26%
Lynn Boylan (Sinn Féin) 13 SF 15%
Clare Daly (Independents4Change) 10 IFC 2%
Ciarán Cuffe (Green Party) 9 Greens 5%
Alex White (Labour) 8 Labour 7%
The other 20%
Likely to gain significant votes - either to get into the running or for their transfers to make a difference
- Mark Durkan (Fine Gael) - from people who don’t really rate Fitzgerald - and that may make them unlikely to transfer back
- Gary Gannon (Social Democrats) - SDs have always failed to get votes on the day - intelligent, well meaning with a reasonably coherent set of policies i.e. very hard to convince the electorate. Tranfers will go back to the soft left e.g. Labour, Greens, maybe Higgins (SD have 1%)
Will gain enough votes for their transfers to make some difference
- Gemma O’Doherty (Independent) - Anti-Corruption but has a mixed bag of beliefs that might not stand scrutiny - transfers will go everywhere
- Ben Gilroy (Independent) - Anti-eviction (of landowners and the filthy rich!) - we all know this guy - transfers will go everywhere
- Rita Harrold (Solidarity) - some name recognition - if eliminated votes will go left
- Alice-Mary Higgins (Independent) - Michael Ds daughter - pissed that the Labour party stood up another old guy as their candidate - votes might go back to labour but more likely to younger, female candidates
- Éilis Ryan (The Workers’ Party) - some name recognition - if eliminated votes will go left
Unlikely to make an impact
- Hermann Kelly (Independent) - Irexit - previously advisor to Farage.
- Tony Bosco Lowth (Independent) - Gardener & Social Entrepreneur
- Aisling McNiffe (Independent) - Improved Health Services for Children
- Mark Mullan (Independent) - Humanitarian Aid Worker
- Eamonn Murphy (Independent) - Anti-Abortion / Pro-Life etc
I think all the established parties (apart from Sinn Fein) made candidate errors here. FG have made the biggest mistake - Frances Fitzgerald has a proven record of incompetence and her ability to shoot herself in the foot with her mouth is legendary, with Mark Durkan they think they are making a generous gesture but given Frances Fitzgerald’s behaviour to running mates in previous elections he will barely get a mention - as a second candidate with a supportive running mate he might have some chance - I suspect his vote will be an embarassment - his only hope is that Fitzgerald makes such a mess that FG voters vote for him rather than anyone else. The Labour Party is the next worst - putting up Alex White is like putting an old horse out to pasture which is pretty much standing operating procedure for parties vis-a-vis Europe. Any hope for Labour supporters that the party might restructure and rejuvenate is dashed by this - Alice Higgins may well eat his lunch and neither will get elected. Fianna Fail just behaved as they always do - time served FF member gets reward with European Salary and Expenses - Barry Andrews is ‘Meh’ but FF supporters will put him in the running. Sinn Fein have a decent, proven candidate in Lynn Boylan - she toes the party line but is pretty unexciting - she has the right demographic to appeal.
The results here will be dependent on how much the electorate has changed - we’re all being told it has but the latest IT poll makes pretty depressing reading - over 70% going to the old parties. There is definitely a disdain for the current government (particularly it’s leader) among younger voters - but if they want that to change they will have to vote differently. I think ‘younger’ is now a much wider demographic. It includes the people who got burned by the GFC and its aftermath - who still have to pay out a huge percentage of their salary just to keep a roof over their heads - that demographic stretches to anyone who has reached ‘normal’ independent living age (let’s say 25) since 2006 - so we are talking about people into their late 30’s who are still angry about the economic system that successive governments have bought into. They don’t like the anti-immigrant sub text that the established parties are peddling (even if it’s subtle) - their partners and co-workers are largely migrant and many of them have been so themselves. But they have to learn to vote in their own best interests - you can see that beginning to happen across Europe - it will be interesting to see if this election follows that trend.
So - how do I think it’s going to go. Looking at the current order in the poll I feel that that will change pretty quickly. I would not be surprised to see Clare Daly top the poll - she has become a much better speaker recently - she’s clear and to the point and now has a history of forensic questioning in the Dail. I think Ciaran Cuffe will move up that list and Frances Fitzgerald move down. Barry Andrews, Lynn Boylan and Frances Fitzgerald will probably be around the same percentage of the vote in second position. Alex White might drop out and be replaced by Mark Durkan (if that’s where Fitzgeralds votes end up).
When the bottom five from my list are eliminated I don’t see any major change in the running order. It’s the next five that are interesting - I think ODoherty and Gilroy will be first to go and since their transfers are likely to go everywhere (including the eliminated candidates) I don’t see that changing things much. Of the next three the order of elimination will dictate things. If it’s Alice Higgins then I think some of her votes will go back to Labour which might keep Alex White’s head above water (if he is ahead of her - remember we might be
talking about Alex White being eliminated at this point or some point near it) and to Gannon. Transfers from Harrold and Ryan will more than likely go to Daly and Boylan but .I think by the time these eliminations are complete the order will be something like this with Boylan either being elected or very close to it-
- Daly (elected)
- White (or maybe Higgins)
Durkans elimination might not make much difference to any of the candidates except Fitzgerald. It will keep her above the waterline.
The next elimination is impossible to call - I think White/Higgins, Cuffe and Gannon will be very close together, and not far behind Andrews. If I’m right then the votes that they have accumulated at this point will be enough for one of them to overtake Andrews. If it’s Gannon it will probably favour Cuffe and White/Higgins. If it’s Higgins it will probably elect Boylan. If it’s White it might give clear water to Fitzgerald. If it’s Cuffe I think it will be spread fairly evenly but it will probably push Andrews down the list. At this point I think the list looks like
- Daly (elected)
- Boylan (probably elected - if not then very close)
The distribution of Andrews vote will almost certainly not favour Fitzgerald (anybody still voting for FF or FG obviously believes that there is a difference between them) but there may not be enough transfers to push anybody above her.
It is possible that by the time we get to the last count it is Fitzgerald rather than Andrews that is getting eliminated but my feeling is that if she gets enough 1st count votes and transfers from Durkan to stay above the cut line the huge push of votes to Boylan and Daly will allow her to sit it out. The only way I can see this not happen is if Durkan and Fitzgerald end up staying in the race long enough for others to overtake them and for them both to be eliminated. Much as I don’t want to see Fitzgerald in the seat I can’t see the left getting 2 seats here in addition to Sinn Fein.
I do reserve my right to change my mind on this as the facts change:slightly_smiling_face: