Euro Election - Dublin Constituency - Whatdya think?

Euro Elections (3 seats (or 4))

Frances Fitzgerald (Fine Gael) 22 FG 29% in latest IT poll
Barry Andrews (Fianna Fáil) 18 FF 26%
Lynn Boylan (Sinn Féin) 13 SF 15%
Clare Daly (Independents4Change) 10 IFC 2%
Ciarán Cuffe (Green Party) 9 Greens 5%
Alex White (Labour) 8 Labour 7%

total 80%

The other 20%
Likely to gain significant votes - either to get into the running or for their transfers to make a difference

  • Mark Durkan (Fine Gael) - from people who don’t really rate Fitzgerald - and that may make them unlikely to transfer back
  • Gary Gannon (Social Democrats) - SDs have always failed to get votes on the day - intelligent, well meaning with a reasonably coherent set of policies i.e. very hard to convince the electorate. Tranfers will go back to the soft left e.g. Labour, Greens, maybe Higgins (SD have 1%)

Will gain enough votes for their transfers to make some difference

  • Gemma O’Doherty (Independent) - Anti-Corruption but has a mixed bag of beliefs that might not stand scrutiny - transfers will go everywhere
  • Ben Gilroy (Independent) - Anti-eviction (of landowners and the filthy rich!) - we all know this guy - transfers will go everywhere
  • Rita Harrold (Solidarity) - some name recognition - if eliminated votes will go left
  • Alice-Mary Higgins (Independent) - Michael Ds daughter - pissed that the Labour party stood up another old guy as their candidate - votes might go back to labour but more likely to younger, female candidates
  • Éilis Ryan (The Workers’ Party) - some name recognition - if eliminated votes will go left

Unlikely to make an impact

  • Hermann Kelly (Independent) - Irexit - previously advisor to Farage.
  • Tony Bosco Lowth (Independent) - Gardener & Social Entrepreneur
  • Aisling McNiffe (Independent) - Improved Health Services for Children
  • Mark Mullan (Independent) - Humanitarian Aid Worker
  • Eamonn Murphy (Independent) - Anti-Abortion / Pro-Life etc

I think all the established parties (apart from Sinn Fein) made candidate errors here. FG have made the biggest mistake - Frances Fitzgerald has a proven record of incompetence and her ability to shoot herself in the foot with her mouth is legendary, with Mark Durkan they think they are making a generous gesture but given Frances Fitzgerald’s behaviour to running mates in previous elections he will barely get a mention - as a second candidate with a supportive running mate he might have some chance - I suspect his vote will be an embarassment - his only hope is that Fitzgerald makes such a mess that FG voters vote for him rather than anyone else. The Labour Party is the next worst - putting up Alex White is like putting an old horse out to pasture which is pretty much standing operating procedure for parties vis-a-vis Europe. Any hope for Labour supporters that the party might restructure and rejuvenate is dashed by this - Alice Higgins may well eat his lunch and neither will get elected. Fianna Fail just behaved as they always do - time served FF member gets reward with European Salary and Expenses - Barry Andrews is ‘Meh’ but FF supporters will put him in the running. Sinn Fein have a decent, proven candidate in Lynn Boylan - she toes the party line but is pretty unexciting - she has the right demographic to appeal.

The results here will be dependent on how much the electorate has changed - we’re all being told it has but the latest IT poll makes pretty depressing reading - over 70% going to the old parties. There is definitely a disdain for the current government (particularly it’s leader) among younger voters - but if they want that to change they will have to vote differently. I think ‘younger’ is now a much wider demographic. It includes the people who got burned by the GFC and its aftermath - who still have to pay out a huge percentage of their salary just to keep a roof over their heads - that demographic stretches to anyone who has reached ‘normal’ independent living age (let’s say 25) since 2006 - so we are talking about people into their late 30’s who are still angry about the economic system that successive governments have bought into. They don’t like the anti-immigrant sub text that the established parties are peddling (even if it’s subtle) - their partners and co-workers are largely migrant and many of them have been so themselves. But they have to learn to vote in their own best interests - you can see that beginning to happen across Europe - it will be interesting to see if this election follows that trend.

So - how do I think it’s going to go. Looking at the current order in the poll I feel that that will change pretty quickly. I would not be surprised to see Clare Daly top the poll - she has become a much better speaker recently - she’s clear and to the point and now has a history of forensic questioning in the Dail. I think Ciaran Cuffe will move up that list and Frances Fitzgerald move down. Barry Andrews, Lynn Boylan and Frances Fitzgerald will probably be around the same percentage of the vote in second position. Alex White might drop out and be replaced by Mark Durkan (if that’s where Fitzgeralds votes end up).

When the bottom five from my list are eliminated I don’t see any major change in the running order. It’s the next five that are interesting - I think ODoherty and Gilroy will be first to go and since their transfers are likely to go everywhere (including the eliminated candidates) I don’t see that changing things much. Of the next three the order of elimination will dictate things. If it’s Alice Higgins then I think some of her votes will go back to Labour which might keep Alex White’s head above water (if he is ahead of her - remember we might be
talking about Alex White being eliminated at this point or some point near it) and to Gannon. Transfers from Harrold and Ryan will more than likely go to Daly and Boylan but .I think by the time these eliminations are complete the order will be something like this with Boylan either being elected or very close to it-

  1. Daly (elected)
  2. Boylan
  3. Fitzgerald
  4. Andrews
  5. Cuffe
  6. White (or maybe Higgins)
  7. Gannon
  8. Durkan

Durkans elimination might not make much difference to any of the candidates except Fitzgerald. It will keep her above the waterline.

The next elimination is impossible to call - I think White/Higgins, Cuffe and Gannon will be very close together, and not far behind Andrews. If I’m right then the votes that they have accumulated at this point will be enough for one of them to overtake Andrews. If it’s Gannon it will probably favour Cuffe and White/Higgins. If it’s Higgins it will probably elect Boylan. If it’s White it might give clear water to Fitzgerald. If it’s Cuffe I think it will be spread fairly evenly but it will probably push Andrews down the list. At this point I think the list looks like

  1. Daly (elected)
  2. Boylan (probably elected - if not then very close)
  3. Fitzgerald
  4. Cuffe/White/Higgins/Gannon
  5. Andrews

The distribution of Andrews vote will almost certainly not favour Fitzgerald (anybody still voting for FF or FG obviously believes that there is a difference between them) but there may not be enough transfers to push anybody above her.

It is possible that by the time we get to the last count it is Fitzgerald rather than Andrews that is getting eliminated but my feeling is that if she gets enough 1st count votes and transfers from Durkan to stay above the cut line the huge push of votes to Boylan and Daly will allow her to sit it out. The only way I can see this not happen is if Durkan and Fitzgerald end up staying in the race long enough for others to overtake them and for them both to be eliminated. Much as I don’t want to see Fitzgerald in the seat I can’t see the left getting 2 seats here in addition to Sinn Fein.

I do reserve my right to change my mind on this as the facts change:slightly_smiling_face:

Going by odds on bookie sites (which is a reasonable steer to filter down the candidates, but far from fool proof)

Frances Fitzgerald is (quite unbelievably IMO) a shoe in at 1/20. After that Andrews and Boylan are fairly safe at 1/8.

For the forth and final seat it is see-sawing between Ciaran Cuffe and Claire Daly.

I would have thought Claire Daly would be further up and not fighting for the forth seat, and I’m not totally convinced Fitzgerald will top the poll and saunter in there.
Will this election see the full redemption of the Greens. Is 2011 really that far away in the minds of so many, again not sure about that.

My local Fine Gael councillor in DL-Rathdown who’s been there for as long as I can remember put his spam thru the letterbox today. Strangely his little reminder to vote FG in the Euros mentioned Mark Durkan first and Frances Fitzgerald second. She’ll certainly be getting pride of last place on my paper (although there’s a decent chance I’ll find someone I like even less to occupy that spot).

Ben Gilroy?
Claire Daly?
Id say Claire is in with a shout

Boylan i think will underperform in a crowded left of field space

Things seem to be panning out as I expected to some extent. FG have suddenly realised that they need to get Mark Durkan more votes lest he be eliminated with not enough to carry Fitzgerald over the line. Fitzgerald has of course resisted but I think HQ have given her the message. The question will be whether Durkan can get enough votes on his own or will he get transfers before he exits. The only transfers Fitzgerald will get will be Durkans - I think Durkans transfers will be low - I can still see FG getting 25% of the vote - that will probably be enough . The survivors in this will be the transfer friendly Clare Daly is more so than Lynn Boylan, and Ciaran Cuffe even more so. I think Barry Andrews needs to be worried - if there is an old politics seat there it looks like the FG strategy of running two sht candidates is better than the FF strategy of running 1 sht candidate. I still think it’s Fitzgerald and 2 from Daly/Boylan/Cuffe and I think Boylan is the vulnerable one.

Frances Fitz topping the poll in dublin? seriously guys?

<\steve balmer laugh>

mainstream parties and the approved lefties are all the same to me

Defence Forces personnel voting against Fine Gael in protest over pay and conditions

Defence Forces members, their families and retired military personnel are expected to vote en masse against Fine Gael in both the local and European elections.

The Irish Examiner has learnt that already many soldiers, sailors and air crews have used their postal votes to vote against Fine Gael candidates.

Their families and retired members of the Defence Forces are likely to follow suit on Friday when polling gets underway around the country.

A major campaign has been launched on social media against the Government in recent weeks by a number of groups associated with military personnel, including those who organised two protest marches in Dublin and Cork to highlight the near-poverty being endured by military families.

They have been angered that the Government hasn’t moved to improve pay and conditions for Defence Forces personnel, who are the poorest paid public servants.

There is more as the fella says

So the Greens have come out of the wilderness, all is forgiven. There isn’t a lot to hold back the full rehabilitation of FF as we turn into the new decade, especially once Martin gets dropped, and they present it as a fresh start.

While Fitzgerald is not guaranteed to take a seat in Dublin after the transfers take effect.

After this South County Dublin doesn’t ever get to look down its nose at the likes of the Healy Rae’s base ever again.

Returning Frances Fitzgerald is quite a statement.

When’s Bertie coming out of retirement?

Can’t believe Cuffe’s vote but those exit polls have been accurate in the past so based on that I would guess that Cuffe’s surplus will be the first distribution. That will probably go everywhere but generally left. It might be more biased to the soft left - i.e. Gannon/White/Higgins. When you eliminate everybody under Alice Mary Higgins it will again go everywhere but probably mainly left. Andrews will probably get more than Fitzgerald out of the eliminations from the right. I don’t think there’s much soft left in that round of eliminations so one of the soft left will be next to go - there’s too little between the three of them although people have said to me that Gannon is very transfer friendly, White not so much - I didn’t hear much about Higgins so I think Higgins will go. Question is whether Higgins vote goes back to Labour. I think a lot of it will. At this point I think Daly and Andrews will be above Fitzgerald - Daly further ahead than Andrews. Boylan might also have crept up - her 10% must be devastating for Sinn Fein - SF are not transfer friendly but they have most hope in the main group of eliminations. I find it difficult to see Boylan even getting level with Fitzgerald though.

So who’s next - I think Durkan (he may even go before Higgins). I don’t think he will have accumulated many transfers so his max transfer to Fitzgerald will be 5%. At the very most she might get 4% - however that would put her on 18% where the quota is 20%+1. She could creep in if she gets transfers but I’m hoping for a Lucinda situation where she stalls on the 18% - but even at that she could get elected without reaching the quota.

At this point it’s White or Gannon to go - there may not be much to transfer here. I think White will go first and Gannon could get transfers - FF and FG might get some pickings - I don’t see Daly or Boylan getting much.

The next elimination is impossible to predict. Cuffe was elected on first count, I think Daly will be at the top of the heap, Fitzgerald could well be next then Andrews/Boylan/Gannon. The elimination order here is crucial. Andrews isn’t transfer friendly and won’t transfer to Fitzgerald but might give a few votes to Boylan. The only people standing who Boylans votes might transfer to are Daly and Andrews. Gannon will probably transfer to everybody - I think Daly might be the main beneficiary and Boylan the least so.

I think Boylan is most likely to go and Gannon the least likely. Daly might get elected at this point but I wouldn’t be surprised if Cuffe is the only one elected with a quota.

So now only Gannon Andrews and Fitzgerald are left. Getting this far has been so tortuous that this line up could be completely different but its my best guess. I would like to see Gannon elected and I do think he has a real chance but the Big Beasts always manage to eke out the votes in these long counts. I think it will be Gannon with Fitzgerald in the fourth seat - so if we get Brexit - it’s a double whammy as we’ll get Fitzgerald as well.

That’s my best and final guess - off down to Lidl now for a tray of beer and a few kilos of Nachos to settle in for tomorrow.

i think Fitzgerald with get the 2nd or 3rd seat. transfers from FG/FF pool will get her across the line early. She isnt even that toxic to the left vote…

Connaght /Ulster looks interesting. Id havea good laugh if Ming doesnt get back. The Green candidate apparently killed it during the debates. Even still its quite remarkable that the Whest will elect a greenie. FF collapse will be remarkable if it performs as bad as the exit poll.

No drama in Dublin. Cuffe, Fitzgerald, Andrews and Daly. SF are transfer toxic so Boylan may as well conceed now

Think there’s a bit of drama to come. I felt that Gilroy and O’Doherty were the last chance for Barry Andrews to pull clear before the left transfer tsunami came in - he got 1100. I don’t see him getting many more - I think he could be in trouble - at best he’ll get the fourth seat. Daly pulled in 2700 which didn’t surprise and Cuffe got 1100.

I think Fitzgerald will still get a seat but if she isn’t over 70000 with Durkans transfers she could be in trouble. She has only got 1000 votes in transfers in 10 counts - that’s pretty Lucinda like given the numbers of votes swilling around. Like you I thought Boylan was dead in the water but Gannon is way behind and if she gets the accumulated left vote rather than him then she is in with a chance. If that accumulated left vote goes to one of them it will elect them - even Gannon has a chance if he pulls ahead and gets Boylans votes on her elimination. By my calculation it’s even possible that both Boylan and Gannon could get elected but that would require a level of transfers that even the big parties struggle to achieve - and the left is known more for division than unification.

I’m keeping the popcorn warm.