Report here from the UK Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government
Analysis of the determinants of house price changes
If the number of households increases by 1 per cent, house prices would increase by about 2 per cent;
A 1 per cent rise in real incomes would increase house prices by 2 per cent;
If interest rates increase by one percentage point then house prices would fall by around 3per cent; and,
If housing stock increases by 1 per cent, house prices would fall by around 2 per cent.
In 1991, the population of England was 47.1 million
In 2016, the population of England was 54.5 million
This is equivalent to an increase of 16 per cent over this period (1991 to 2016). Applying the relationship from the University of Reading model set out in the methodology section above (a 1 per cent increase in the number of households leads to a 2 per cent increase in house prices)
this increase in the population is expected to have led to a 32 per cent increase in house prices,
holding all else equal.
Over the same period (1991 to 2016) the non-UK born population of England increased by 4.8 million; from 3.5 million to 8.4 million (these figures do not sum due to rounding).
Applying the relationship between household growth and house prices derived from the University of Reading affordability model, the increase in the non-UK born population in England is expected to have led to a 21 per cent increase in house prices; holding all else equal.
2016 April Census: 4,739,600
2021 April Estimate: 5,011,500
5 year increase: 271,900 or 5.7% total
5 year increase: 150,000 or 3.2% total Non-Irish net migration
So if we take it the above report findings that every 1% increase leads to a 2% price increase, Ireland’s population growth since 2016 accounts for house price increases of
+11.4% from all population increases
+6.4% from all Non-Irish net migration
Of course some of us are sceptical that the 5m population and the numbers of Non Irish net migration are undercooked, and it certainly feels that way it has to be said.
Many incomes have been stagnant in this time, yet tax incomes are rising and the country has gone from ghost estates to a housing crisis within 10 years, all of this adds to the feeling that the volume/population element of the equation is a very strong driver of the problems we are seeing.
Official CSO estimates are +271,900 population increase since 2016. Last Census was underestimated by 84,000 so this figure could actually be closer to +350K.
But if we use the current estimates +271,900 / 5 years = 54,380 increase per year.
We are told (no reference I’m afraid) average per household is 2.7 persons, so 54,380 increase per year / 2.7 persons = 20,140 new housing units per year required.
So this report also foound, like the UK one above, that for every 1% increase in interest rates, house prices fall by 3%
Research I published 9y ago shows that interest rate changes have some of the strongest effects on house prices. If intr. rates were to go up by 1%, prices were to fall by 3%, all else equal. This is using US data; the effect in the UK should be stronger. https://t.co/B5MD8TnQir