Ex Snr IMF man thinks we're fubard

And no we’re not talking about Donal Donovan

Hat tip to Philip Lane over at Irish Economy, sobering article in todays Times by Ashoka Mody who was the IMF’s mission chief to Ireland and heavily involved in Troika bailout negotiations in 2010.

irishtimes.com/newspaper/opi … 79599.html

'scuse me?

should that not read “will start”

Sitting on the sidelines, cribbing and moaning is a lost opportunity. I don’t know how people who engage in that don’t commit suicide because frankly the only thing that motivates me is being able to actively change something.

:smiley:

That cheered me up, at least someone has their eyes open.

Missed growth targets
Missed (un)employment targets
High budget deficits & continued overspending
High government debt
High personal debt/mortgage arrears problems

Part from that it’s all a bed of roses

There’ll never be a better time to buy…

Absolutely

If Juve hadn’t scored three times the other night Celtic might have got a result XD

Stuff like this should really help us too

‘Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, shrank by a quarterly rate of 0.6% in the fourth quarter as demand for its exports fell. France, Europe’s second-biggest economy, also saw output drop by 0.3%. Both economies are now one quarter away from recession.’

rte.ie/news/business/2013/02 … y-falters/

The euro is too strong for them, that’s what is hitting their exports. It’ll hit Ireland’s too as we go through 2013 with a strong Euro. We need a Euro back around $1.21. With german election this year there might have to be an appetite for some policies that encourage devaluation.

Like a dose of controlled inflation, but keep it just below US and UK levels. Which would help with debt burdens also.

They don’t think so at all.
I talk to German financiers every week … they are absolutely inflation-obsessed, it’s completely ridiculous talking to them about it. When it comes to the currency they think a weak Euro will bring cost-push inflation to the Eurozone and (somehow) that becomes hyperinflation and (somehow) that becomes Hitler. How can every country run a trade surplus? It’s logically moronic. The Germans need to start spending or they will collapse the Eurozone.
If Weidmann gets pushed out of the Bundesbank/ECB then the Euro will start to weaken considerably, until then it’s going to be difficult to hold it down.

Youre dead right. But then again, thats been obvious for some time now.

Sure inflation is bad for one’s savings, but so is having almost 1/2 of every young person you know sitting on walls with their mates because they have no jobs to go to.

I agree it is very hard for the PIGIS to regain competitiveness when the ECB is running an inflation target of under 2%, the only quick way is that there is nominal falls in wages and fiscal spending in the PIGiS but that seems very hard to do politicly in first world countries with peoples sense of entitlement and access to debt.

Instead the PIGIS are trying to shut there fiscal deficit by tax increases like VAT rises which is making them less completive with Germany and making them miss growth targets etc. If the PIGIS were able to implement quick adjustments in competitiveness and their fiscal deficits like Latvia did then I think the euro would have a strong chance of survival but politically that is not possible in the Euro