Excess construction expressed as a percentage of GDP

Saw this article in the SanFran Chronicle
sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c … ss.opinion
(Thanks someassemblyrequired).

At the bottom is has these figures from the Centre for European Policy Studies expressing excess construction as a percentage of GDP:

U.S. 7.1
Germany 6.5
Spain 24.6
Ireland 44.3

What I think it means is that we’ve built too many houses to the tune of 44.3% of GDP (thank goodness they didn’t use GNP). Even if it doesn’t mean that, it still looks really bad!

:open_mouth: and double :open_mouth: :open_mouth:

Almost twice as bad as Spain. And Spain are very, very bad. Bloody heck.

Don’t be so negative, we’re number ONE again!!!

Go team!!!

*Its the empties stoopid *

But nicely put, anyone got linkees to the original report so that I can critique it just a tad ??

Table on pg 13.

Bubbles in real estate? A Longer-Term Comparative Analysis of Housing Prices in Europe and the US
shop.ceps.be/downfree.php?item_id=1545 [adobe acrobat required]

We’re going to have to rename GB the mailman!

Have I been typecast.

On Page 15

This is expanded on page 16

Why dont we export some of our surplus housing stock to France and Italy? :laughing:

Housing market in France isn’t so healthy either. You’ll need to find somewhere that has a chronic shortage of housing. Sardinia or something I read somewhere else.

Would sort out our economic woes big time if we could just lift Adamstown The Paddocks completely and entirely and dump it on a Mediterranean island.

The most damning bit is on Page 22, it restates a long held view by many of the Pins Residents.

For the n00b I will state my version of it.

The Housing Boom from 1995-2000 was characterised by

  1. Tumbling interest rates as the € approached
  2. High levels of immigration / de-emigration by the Irish themselves.
  3. Rents rising in tandem with house prices .

The Housing Boom from 2002-2007 was characterised by

  1. Rents being static, indicating no real demand for all these homes
  2. Ultra high levels of output into a speculative market ,.
  3. Despite the holding back of much marketable supply by speculators, the Empties Stoopid bit, rents STILL did not rise.

Therefore the 2002-2007 boom was built on shifting sands. This turned out to be easy credit which has now been withdrawn , thereby leading to what I hope is a rapid deflation of the bubble and a return to sustainable patterns of production and usage of housing …bar in the *Midlands Ghost Estate Belt *where systemic retirement of stock must be considered.

I broke that story ages ago on the pin, look a picture to remind you! A whole new manufacturing export market… :wink:

France overpriced? The country that features in the Irish Times “Take 5” piece in comparison to Irish houses almost every week? 14 bed chateau versus 3 bed in Stillorgan, etc… Say it ain’t so!

Is that Batt O’Keefe on the bow?

No, Batt got off that ship last Wednesday to another berth (any port in a storm?). A new Captain is being appointed tomorrow but he/she will not be able to turn the ship around before it hits the rocks.