Ahead of target now it seems
On radio 1 drivetime now
Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) – Ireland’s budget deficit narrowed to
14.4 billion euros in the first 10 months of the year from 22.7
billion euros in the same period last year, the Finance Ministry
in Dublin said today in a statement on its website. The figure
doesn’t include all banking recapitalization costs.
Too right jonny.
It was predicted right here on 'pintime that the government would use the prefunding of the NPRF in 2009 as a ‘saving’ in 2010 on the deficit. Despite the NPRF money being capital spend and not current.
So, let’s get some equality in the figures. At this stage, 3 bn in NPRF and 4 bn in Anglo had been ‘spent’. So 15.7 vs 14.4. Which is on target for the year, but seeing as the target was to cut overall spending by 1.5 bn, it’s no real achievement. Set the bar really low and you can’t help but fall over it.
Always read the small print.
I’m not sure what I’m missing here.
Generally we see a surplus in November as self employed make their returns and then go back into deficit in December. Therefore we’re probably looking at a deficit for the year of 15bn-16bn.
Assuming moderate growth over the next 4 years, GDP by 2014 would be in the region of 160bn-170bn (what’s 10bn between friends).
To get our deficit down to 3% (about 5bn) do we not need to cut 10bn-11bn? Where does the figure of 15bn come from?
Ah, forgot how much they were going to increase by
so the deficit is only 14.4bn and not 15.5bn. uncork the champagne lads. let’s party.
Nobody said that they’d set a high bar but these are the exact same forecasts that were ridiculed by the Pin in January and February. Pinsters said the projections would be out by 3bn-4bn, it would lead to an emergency mid-year budget and called the DoF incompetent for making them.
Every month since when the returns were released it was put down to luck or someone “heard that the receipts for the following month were far worse than expected” and the deficit was still going to be over 20bn.
Every month the Pin has gotten it wrong. so is the new tactic now to argue that the bar was set so low that success was inevitable? Nobody here bothered to mentioned that before when they claiming the projections were ridiculous.
Now I know November is a big month and it could all go tits up yet but 10 months in and they are on target which I reckon deserves some credit.
Income tax reciepts are way off target, in line with projections here on the PIn. Corporate tax is up, to compensate, but I wonder will this continue.
Nonsense. The Pin projection had income tax 9%-10% behind target, it’s currently 5.4%
The Pin projection? The Pin said this,the Pin said that? I must have missed when a spokesman was appointed? I thought this was just a forum, with individual contributers with different points of view.
Having said all that maybe we have turned another corner? Give me a break.
Productivity, manufacturing output and exports are all way up this year.
Spending on target, tax revenue above target.
Unemployment fell last month
New car sales up even after removing the scrappage sales
Proles nicely prepared for a big chop corrective budget
A lot of signs of recovery it has to be admitted.
The high rates charged for secondary market govt debt are a worry but it should be remembered that the state paid an average 4.6% for borrowing last year. The weight of the ECB and commission are clearly 4square behind us as they refinanced all the maturing bank bonds in september. NAMA not turning into the disaster some had hoped or feared it would. Fitch expects NAMA to break even and Moodys says an Irish default is unlikely.
With lower wages, lower commercial rents and a more eager workforce, Ireland is now clearly a more reasonable place to invest than 4 years ago. (this is reflected in the massive increase in FDI last year to 169bn and presumably more this year again). I am very optimistic for Ireland’s future now. Never mind the millenarianists!
I don’t believe I projected tax income this year. I did think that the deficit was not going to fall much.
Others predicted different things.
Perhaps godlikeproductions would be more your thing if you want accurate opinions from more than a bunch of amateurs?
Forsooth thou shalt enrage 2Pack whose predictions are always on target.
Especially with regard to orange juice.
Indeed and once we get outside our comfort zone, the predictions become more erratic. My comfort zone was whether the banks were bust and by how much. Well, that bit is over; it is a bit late for predictions!
I do think that it is a bit rough of people who don’t predict anything taking issue with those who do.
The CSO and ESRI like to highlight oversaving. So what’s up with DIRT being lower than expected.
(they’re hardly talking of a single month/delayed payment from banks?)