exchequer returns dec 2009, full year (forecast)

Due out later today. Thoughts from the assembled minds of ye pinsters?

Apparantly exactly as I predicted at the time of the April budget - taxes down €2billion from estimates at circa €32billion.

A bit higher than I thought, I think I was saying about 31bn? Totally random made-up number though :smiley:


Seriously though, I don’t see any reason why they can’t publish made up figures so they’ll come in at €33.1 - it’s close enough to the estimates to make government look competent, but sufficiently off such that people might actually believe it’s true.

It was 30.7 in November, so just over 33 and we will be told that it is more or less the 34 predicted in April. 2.3m for december will be due to end of year bonuses etc.

i had thought 30-31, so 31-2-3 would be reasonable, and seems to be a consensus. tax was 38.8 to nov 08, total for year was 40.7, 1.9 or 4.6% of years take in december, that would on a straight line increase give us 3.7*1.046=32.1
Anything much less than that would be the decline intensifying…

The decline is getting declinier?

I do not get the government optimism on the figures. Income Tax is going to start really falling off a cliff next year as all the paycuts feed in through out the year, mostly at the marginal rate and as more and more people fall off the marginal rate of tax and completely into the standard rate as well as continuing job losses. The economy is now down 250k jobs from its peak with up to another 100k to go in 2010. Construction employment alone will fall below 100k in 2010 from 151.5k in Q3 2009.

presumably they’ll be listed here:
finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?D … CatID=5&m=

or maybe in a press statement first?

and dont forget the self employed tax take will be down further.

100k more unemployed would increase the deficit just above 1.5 billion with loss of tax and increase in spending for dole payments etc. Most businesses are preparing for a “worse 2009” this year.

This is a forecast thread so I have renamed accordingly.

Someone please post a new thread when the actual figures are published.

Does the Public Sector pension levy get included in the revenue figures?

If yes, what heading is it under and how much would this add to revenues? There is one heading in the November monthly bulletin finance.gov.ie/documents/exchequerstatements/2009/NOVexcheqstat.pdf under other receipts but it’s less than 6m, so that can’t be it.

It does not go through the tax system as such. It appears in both the gross spending of a department and again in the revenue of a department.

rte have em:


Almost right for once?

Nothing to see here… except :open_mouth:

Well, you know what they say about forecasts…

fixed that typo for ya… :mrgreen:

So the pension levy shows up in the national accounts by reducing the expenditure by departments? That’s one way to do it. I must be polishing turds too long and expected to buff up the revenue figures a little. It’s what I’d do :nin

Gross spending on pay is not changed by the pension levy, but the income of the department is increased by the figure of the levy as it is taken out of every pay packet thereby reducing net, but not gross, expenditure by the amount involved,

Just anecdotal, but contacts tell me that the recent cold snap has been a boon for Dublin-based retailers, as formerly unpatriotic punters have been unwilling to brave the snowdrifts to harvest the goodies in Norn Iron over the last month.

I expect this to be reflected in better than expected turnover results, incl. VAT receipts for December and January and will be spun to fit the Brian Lenihan It’s All Stabilised Now ™ song and dance routine.

It may well have given a lot of retailers who’ve been hanging on by their nails some breathing room. And the cash for clunkers scheme is going to do very well in 2010, I predict, which will keep what’s left of the motor trade on life support.