Exchequer Returns End October

€7bn worse than this time last year .

finance.gov.ie/ViewDoc.asp?D … atID=5&m=f

EXCHEQUER STATEMENT 		
				
STATEMENT OF EXCHEQUER SURPLUS/(DEFICIT) IN THE PERIOD ENDED 31 OCTOBER 2008 	
				
			                                01 January 2007 	01 January 2008
			                                                  to 	to
Receipts and Expenditure 			31 October 2007 	31 October 2008
			                                     €000 	€000
Receipts 				
Tax Revenue 	Note 1 		    34,935,001 	31,475,729
Non-Tax Revenue 	Note 2 		450,632 	652,042
Sinking Fund (Capital) * 			465,571 	474,271
Other Capital Receipts 	Note 3 		908,985 	882,269
Total 			36,760,189 	33,484,311
				
Expenditure 				
Expenditure 				
Voted (Departmental Expenditure Voted ) 		35,699,982 	39,439,867
Non-Voted (Non-discretionary Expenditure charged directly on the Central Fund) 			
Sinking Fund * 	Note 5 		                        465,571 	474,271
Other Non-Voted Current Expenditure 	Note 5       3,175,702 	3,223,142
Non-Voted Capital Expenditure 	Note 6 		1,361,303 	1,360,014
Total 			                                       40,702,558 	44,497,294
				
Exchequer Surplus/(Deficit) 			(3,942,369)  (11,012,983)
				
				
Source and Application of Funds 				
Total (Borrowing)/Repayment 	Note 7 		

(8,458,918)
	

(25,067,108)
Total Increase/(Decrease) in Exchequer Deposits and Other Balances 	Note 8 		

4,516,549
	

14,054,125
				
Exchequer Surplus/(Deficit) 			 (3,942,369) (11,012,983)

That’s not as bad as I expected to be honest.

here’s the link:
finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=5525

and the direct link to the pdf:
finance.gov.ie/documents/exc … toct08.pdf

I expected worse myself

Still to come are

  1. November Vat returns which will be ugly
  2. Self Employed Taxes submitted through ROS and not manually

The next statement will have the final deficit more or less .

In 2006, the exchequer returns in November were what turned budget into a surplus. how times change.

Are you for real? Now bad to you need it to be? Tax revenue for October came in at just €2.4billion compared to €3.6billion forecasted, A €1.2billion deterioration in a month where there is no big VAT returns to be made. A FULL 33% FALL IN TAX RECEIPTS COMPARED TO EXPECTATIONS???

Irish Government Bonds listed on the Irish Stock Exchange.. 3 01,085 ( 6,853,340)
Other Irish Government Public Bond Issues................................. 0 35,242
EIB Loans.................................................................................... 0 74,575
Medium Term Notes..................................................................... 0 0
Private Placements...................................................................... 0 0
National Saving Schemes............................................................ 2 69,944 ( 1,194,839)
Commercial Paper.....................................................................( 9,587,697) ( 17,736,212)
Miscellaneous Debt....................................................................6 64 3 17
(Borrowing from)/Repayment to Ministerial Funds...............................5 57,086 607,149
Total (Borrowing)/Repayment ( 8,458,918) ( 25,067,108)
Note 8: Increase/(Decrease) in Exchequer
Deposits and Other Balances
Increase/(Decrease) in Exchequer Balance................................ 4,454,676 13,739,905
Increase/(Decrease) in Other Bank Deposits.............................. 295,000 300,000
Increase/(Decrease) in Other Balances....................................... ( 233,127) 1 4,220
Total                                                                                   4 ,516,549 14,054,125

Borrowing is €10bn higher than this time last year

Yah but MORE self employed are filing through ROS this year than last so we cannot be sure about this until the next lot of returns!

Septembers figures here

finance.gov.ie/documents/exc … tatsep.pdf

I was expecting us to be in the hole by another €0.5-1.0 billion.

And I would expect the Dept to have made allowance for that in their monthly profiling.

Can anyone tell me quite why the government borrowed €25billion so far this year only to squirrel away €14billion of it into departmental balances, presumably costing a lot of money in interest costs, when the exchequer deficit should fall over the November/December period with the November taxes?

Maybe they expected even worse exchequer figures than what we had?

With self-employed tax receipts due on 31 October or 15 November if using ROS, does any of this money get counted in October? (Apart from the really organised people who send a cheque off early!).

Even more to the point, does it not contain the 31.10.07 and 15.11.07 receipts which would be much higher than the 2008 comparative figures?

Yes. The tax I have just filed is for last year. So the figures will not be as bad as next year’s figures.

edit: Ah, slight senior moment - I paid the difference between the advance for 2007 that I paid in 2007 and the final figure (a rebate) and the advance for 2008.

The 2008 advance is either 90% of your expected tax for 2008 or 100% of what you paid last year (or some other random figure that you and your accountant cook up!), so yes, I would expect them to be particularly bad as I expect many self-employed people will be saying that they have earned next to nothing this year.

Yeah and that’s inspite of taxes on petrol and cigarettes being significantly increased during october.

Income Tax Header

Sept 2007 Sept 2008 ( down 130m)

8,823,406 8,690,515

Oct 2007 Oct 2008

10,322,214 10,253,220 ( down 73m)


Income Tax Receipts actually IMPROVED IN OCTOBER, relatively .


OVERALL TAX RECEIPTS

Sept 2007 Sept 2008

31,462,230 28,478,147 ( down €3bn)

Oct 2007 Oct 2008

34,935,001 31,475,729 ( down €3.5bn)

The bulk of the overall disimprovement is in EXPENDITURE and not RECEIPTS

The bulk of the disimprovement in receipts is Stamps and CGT which account for over half of that €3.5bn drop.

The headline I saw was that VAT was €770m behind ( sept - sept) but is €900m behind (oct - oct) which is a very serious and sudden deceleration in VAT which accounts for 1/3 of all tax receipts .

I shall be watching the VAT trend strongly in November . It is a **big **VAT month .

At the end of November 2007

VAT Rose from Oct 07 by €1.9bn
Income Tax Rose from Oct 07 by €1.2bn

My fear is that the VAT total in the next exchequer figures will only rise by an anorexic €1.6bn to a total of €12.9bn . That is a key number people . Anything above that is actually good news.

However this drop in VAT (in my opinion) will be a permanent trend and when taken with an expected very large YOY drop in new car sales in January will mean a March Emergency Budget is urgently required and we will all know that in early February .

It also means that Irelands GNP is heading for about -8% next year and unemployment is heading north of 10% :frowning:

**New car sales down 55% in October
**

And the downward spiral continues apace. :nin