In 2002 the buoyancy of the Exchequer returns was one of the factors that helped return the Government with a handsome majority. The message from yesterday’s Exchequer figures is that this buoyancy has now disappeared…
As we now know from yesterday’s figures, total tax revenues grew in the first three months of the year by 10.2 per cent, practically identical to the 10 per cent profiled for the period last December.
The big question now relates to whether this deceleration will continue. If it does, years of revenue overshoot may suddenly start turning into undershoot.
The risk that this could happen is evident from that most talked about category of taxation: stamp duty. Last year revenue growth overshot expectations by a whopping 37.4 per cent. In the year to March 2007, the extent of that undershoot has fallen drastically.
Compared to expected growth of 11 per cent, stamp duties have grown by 12.8 per cent, but this should be no comfort whatsoever to the Government, far from it…
If stamp duty receipts continue to slow rapidly, any remaining buoyancy in corporation taxes will not be enough to prevent total taxes from falling below forecasts. If that happens before election day, expect to hear a lot about it.