Hi guys, can I please pick your brains on this. Looking for fair value on this house: it’s in Knocklyon, in a very old established estate, on a road where all houses where sold as plots and where all individually built by the owners. It’s a bungalow, over 2000sq feet, good distribution, big sitting room, big kitchen, utility room, tv room, dining room, four bedrooms (two en-suite) and main bathroom. In good condition inside but needs a little bit of decorating, nothing mayor, a lick of paint etc. Big gardens from and back, own gate and detached garage with own door.
So what would you consider good value for this? Thanks
See that’s the difficulty, there isn’t really. I have tried checking bungalows within D14 and D16 but to be honest most of them are not as big inside or outside.
Presumably you know what you rent it for. Multiply your annual rent by 15 and that will give you a figure that is generally viewed to be the long term trend value of your house. So if you pay 1500 a month you come out at 18000*15 about 270k. The figure varies between 14 and 17 depending on where you get it. Ireland is still way above this at the moment but look at any graph of real house prices in Ireland for the last 30 years and you will see just how out of whack we are with the long-term trend.
I see where you guys are getting at but right now rents are very low and frankly I feel that the EA has done the owner a disservice because the property was not shown for what it really was at all. Last year it was rented for twice the price we’re paying now and property is not worth that much but not far off. Plus there’s something else as well: I want to get it at a fair price but I want a chance to get it. If I came up to the owner with anything that even approaches TWICE that figure he’s going to laugh at me. I mean this is a 4-bed 2000sq feet detached house on grounds in a desirable part on south Dublin, if that sells for 270k, what is the 3-bed semi going to sell for, 50k?
But I do see the rationale for your calculations and I appreciate you taking the time to answer me.
The mistake you are planning to make is to purchase a house using the inflated value of its past and not on the likely reduced value of its future.
Now is simply not the time to to purchase a house in Ireland as prices will continue to fall to levels that seem silly now ,just as prices paid in the past were silly then.
If you buy now you will soon regret you purchase.
There is no one on this site that could correctly value the house you are looking at as the price of irish houses are unstable to say the least.
If I was you I would simply wait, and, remember that the buyer sets the price.
OK, let’s take the problems I have with that one by one.
He might laugh, if like you and a lot of other people his idea of value is based on some notion about the peak
of the boom. At the peak of the boom things were crazy, completely irrational. By definition the true value after the
bust has to seem crazy and irrationally low by comparison.
More succinctly: If your offer doesn’t seem ridiculously low, you’ve offered too much.
Knocklyon is desirable to you and that’s great, but don’t kid yourself. There are ghost estates
all over Ireland which are described as “sought after”. If there’s so much seeking going in why
are they empty? You’re in the middle of a property bust. Nowhere is desirable.
You have to clear your mind of all EA bullshit.
If it sells for 270K what’s the 3 bed going to sell for?
Less than 270K.
You think the guy would laugh at over half a million euro for a 4 bed house in the suburbs of
a small city, on the edge of Europe, with terrible infrastructure, terrible public transport,
rocketing unemployment, and an economy doing it’s best to top the great crash of 1929?
Laugh all the way to the bank I think.
Hey! If you’ve got the money, and want the house then you don’t need our help. Pay
what it’s worth TO YOU. That by definition is the value of the house.
I agree with what you say, however, I don’t think we’ll see 4-bed detached houses on grounds in South Dublin tumble to under 400k. But we’ll wait and see I suppose
How much land are we talking about here?
When I hear “grounds” I think country estate.
I presume we’re talking a lawn and maybe patio/deck, rather than a sweeping driveway lined with trees.
As for whether they’ll fall below 400K.
This one only has 25% to go. www.daft.ie/1439992
You’ve certainly opened my eyes though. I lived out that way a few years ago. I haven’t looked at
prices there recently. Some of them are the craziest I’ve seen for a long while. 700K+ for fairly
ordinary looking houses.
Of course it’s not a country estate in D16. It must be about 0.2 of an acre or so. there is no comparison between those two houses no offence, the one that I rent is twice as big and has more than twice the outside space plus I hear there is a road that is to pass literally beside the back garden of that house in Coolamber which is probably the reason they are in such rush to have it sold.
As for those 700+ houses some of them have been in the market for the guts of 2 years and none will sell in any rush.
Having not seen a photo, but following your description. I’m guessing 3 reception rooms to go with your 4 beds. Sounds to me like it’s probably in the 500K area. That’s based on a review of the kind of person who could have bought it before the boom at 3 times salary with a bit of equity from a previous sale or a windfall. So that’s some of the professionals, airline pilots and business owners. Remember it’s still Knocklyon, not Sydney Parade where I’d expect a house like yours for that kind of person topping out at 750K. Excluding the Embassy brigade.
