Fall in number on Live Register

rte.ie/news/2010/0929/unemployment.html

Is this good or bad? On the face of it it seems positive however the number of new claimants according to the CSO is up. Does this just mean that more people have moved off the live register to jobs or courses?

Eamon O’Cuiv is delighted with the news.

Well the seasonally adjusted figure fell by 5,400, so at face value this is positive. Though do you think this is the result of a net 5,400 jobs being created?

Pat Kenny spent a long time talking about how best to emigrate this morning.

I don’t think this is all about job creation.

More than likely due to an increase in people emigrating and
immigrants returning back home due to the poor employment prospects
here.

No doubt the muppets in government will put some
‘signs of green shoots’ delusional spin on it.

From the RTE article:

Did he really say that?

Edit: Sorry, just to be clear. The Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment. Am I wrong or is he?

I reckon their seasonal adjustments are based on a certain percentage starting courses in September but that hasn’t taken account of the increased third level intake this year. These people might be leaving the live register as full time students but they are only their because they have nothing else today and are still in receipt of their welfare allowances.

I believe that this number also strips out anybody on a FAS scheme or anything like that. So there is a whole group of people there who aren’t employed but who aren’t on the live-register. I wish we had more accurate measures that wouldn’t allow the Gubberment to hide behind mis-leading sound-bites.

Somebody over 21 could use the BTEA as a way to increase their welfare payments as it is not means tested.

Just looking at the CSO unadjusted figures. There was a 24,500 decrease in September compared to August 2010. In 2009 there was a decrease of 17,000 recorded. If their seasonal ajustments are based on previous years then they are not going to take account of the higher numbers on the BTEA scheme.

From Mary Coughlan,

So what is that figure in 2010? 25,000-30,000?

When are the next QNHS statistics out?
We’ll see under one million people in full time paid employment before this administration are finished doing their damage.

Well Conor Lenihan on Frontline last week said FAS places had been doubled from 80k to 160k. Though no doubt still less than the real figure.

I can’t think of anyone better placed to advise on this subject especially from excellent vantage point he enjoys from the subsidised ivory towers. This must be at least his second emigration wave to bare witness too. The man is a pro.