Fallout - A Post Wuhan Coronavirus World


#1

Rather than derail the other thread, I think we should have another to try and begin to make sense of what happens when this ends. Clearly the world is unlikely to fully resemble the way it was before, so it might be prudent to begin conceiving of what it may look like and how people can begin to prepare even now (reports today suggest that the worst could be over in another few weeks).

For example, the following doesnt bode well for the future of the EU,

In terms of economics are we looking at a protracted recession (indeed how likely is the virus to come back in the Autumn?). Or will it be a short sharp shock followed by Trumpian recovery?

In terms of property how likely are the many young Brazilian/Indian/chinese service economy employees to leave Ireland? Could this precipitate a rental price crash? What about residential market? Will we see a repeat of the aftermath of 2008? Worse?

What of Irish politics? Will this result in Leo and co being viewed as a safe pair of hands for the foreseeable?

Theres many more. Fire at will…


#2

It’s noticeable that a lot of things that were deemed impossible before C-19 are being belted out without comment. Money being thrown at everything. Rent freezes were unconstitutional and now they’re not. Mortgage freezes impossible, now sure there’s one for everyone in the audience.

I have noticed a couple of Italian tweeters I follow are unhappy with Germany in particular and the EU in general for the lack of solidarity shown to it.

Just In Time delivery is being noted as a problem with C-19. Because everything is JIT then there is no excess capacity to simply delivery simple things like PPE and more complex things like ventilators. I can see basic medical supplies being treated like defence equipment and being exempt from trade agreements from now on.

That’s just off the top of my head.


#3

I agree.

Locally produced health products and food supply will likely be deemed of paramount importance to any forward thinking society. Proper universal healthcare will also likely be demanded by a large cohort.

I would worry about potential for people who are at risk of having this virus being excluded from certain activities such as travel or sporting activities. Will bouncers in pubs require vaccination certificates if or when a vaccine becomes available, before allowing people enter crowded premises?

What about cash? Will handling it come to deemed a high risk activity when it comes to things like obtaining health insurance?

I could also envisage a return to religious practice for many who may/will have been confronted with their own mortality for the first time. Walking down OConnrll Street earlier today passed about 20 mainly young people on their knees praying the rosary. Its a long time since Ive seen anyyhing like that in Dublin.


#4

To add to JIT, flex capacity in many industries, the health service, etc. is clearly required. An actual disaster plan that covers real what if planning, not some Joe Jacobs posting of Iodine tablets. Sepatate out the scenario builders and the responders (e.g. build a series of Futureshock type scenarios, draw up a response plan for them). This would have to include working with the large agri-firms and road hauliers.

I have vague memories during the Falklands war that the British put into action long held MOD plans to requisition private sector assets on a temporary or permanent basis, with payment for them deferred. This happened in short order (i.e. was part of a pre-existing plan). We don’t need a response to be army-led, but we should have a proper civil response plan.


#5

The politics in Ireland is a weird one. It seems even NIrn are looking to the Irish state for guidance, not trusting the noises coming from London? It may be that a caretaker/minority government without a majority is the ideal situation, so a broad consensus has to be reached. The EU suffers from not having a treasury/not having the tools of economic carrot or stick. The desire for small government (the EU bureaucracy is tiny) has resulted in a paper tiger. Whether a larger EU would help is anyone’s guess - the US with its large Federal government still seems to struggle, and it’s been reported that Germany is also experiencing different state-level responses and different reporting.


#6

For the industry I work in - travel and tourism - it’s a disaster. I’m waiting for the axe to fall at work to see what’s coming on top of the pay cuts (vountary outside the US for the moment). The big airlines, I suspect, will pivot as they have done in the past to the leisure traveller, using their size (and bailouts) to beat the low cost carriers. Customer loyalty is going to be key, and here Ryanair seem to be on their game - instant refunds, no quibbles. Aerlingus (now operating like a mini-British Airways) offerring only vouchers and being quite mean about that too.

edit: oh yeah, I expect vaccination cards to become a thing again too. Maybe not just for travel!


#7

The thing that is required to bounce back from this quickly is proper helicopter money for the masses. The day the lockdown is lifted, money hits citizens bank accounts and maybe have a bank holiday too then have people get out there spending. The Irish and World economy needs the equivalent of a defibrillator, dragging out treatment will only cause more trouble.


#8

The fiasco of EU leadership is obvious. They just stated that they will make decision in 2 weeks.
“The sky is falling, oh lets wait 2 weeks…”

Total disgrace to ignore the risk in first place, then when risk become reality, still pretend its not there. Not a single EU country prepared for it, EU was acting like nothing is happening in early March when Lombardia was in flames already. All of it will be remembered and it will lead to more radical shift across the EU.

Personally, I hope that lazy bastards will not damage the view of remote working.
In my current place there is good few people which are super unresponsive for most of the day, god knows what they do, but I depend on them. I am a contractor so I am bit unsure about the future. I hope that after this, companies will be more open to remote working. I’ve worked from home for over a year, but when I decided to switch choice was very small.

What would be really great for us all to get the politicians act like leaders not vote hungry idiots. I hope that EU will not follow random money spraying which can end in massive inflation. Our leaders should bring back manufacturing of healthcare components and drugs back to EU, come up with some combination of tax cuts and “ultra cheap” lending.
We should invest the money for our future, not to bring back the past.

Sadly I think it will end up with more split inside :confused:


#9

I think the politics of this goes one of two ways.

First, the pan global approach is accepted as rational in the face of such a cross border threat to humanity. Problem with this outcome is that the pan national organisations such as the EU and WHO have perforned bady thus far. They appear very much deatached from whats happening on the ground.

Second outcome (more likely based on events to date), populations demand proper preparedness for similar future scenarios. At this point it looks like this could only be achieved by more political autonomy allied to a degree of increased economic self suffiiciency when it comes to the production of essentials as mentioned above.


#10

This isn’t our first rodeo. We know from 2008 that when a government tries to bail out the banking and rentier class they can grossly fail.

I don’t see any other way out from this but mass debt restructurings, write offs and debt for equity swaps. This realization will be slow to drop.


#11

Well Ireland is well ahead of the curve on bailouts and debt write offs. It’s been a test tube for over a decade.

But we all know you can’t bailout the majority. By definition. The majority will still end up footing the bill whatever you call it or whatever mechanism is used.


#12

I don’t think this is so like 2008. Its not US bonanza crash with ripples across the world any more. It’s collapse of US bubble and massive halt everywhere for… nobody knows how long.


#13

Maybe it’s time to look at the whole “debt based” monitory system and see that it really has reached the end of the line as it requires infinite growth to continue indefinitely, which on a finite planet is simply impossible. It has been fine tuned to the point that it is completely destabilized by any disruption, let alone a speed bump like COVID-19.

Perhaps it’s time to look at an investment based economy where money is sent into the economy at the bottom and flows up the path of least resistance as opposed to “trickle down” where most stays up at the top. Lets look at UBI as the economic “sump” and start from there.


#14

Maybe that is actually what is happening or something along similar lines. :ninja:


#15

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-26/the-second-virus-shockwave-is-hitting-china-s-factories-already

The factories might be up and running but where are the orders?


#16

Across the pond here in the UK I envisage the aftermath as a double-edged sword.

This could slow Brexit because negotiations will take a back seat or cause Brexit to be hastened as every single economic and financial catastrophe will be blamed on Cov19, not Brexit; this will embolden the Ultras.

Six of one…

My personal view is that the Post-19 world is further away than many think and over a longer period.
A potential second wave in Autumn will have profound social, political and economic effects across the world.

The 1000 deaths mark was passed today here and its a major topic of conversation… reality is hitting. The next 4-6 weeks will be the hardest.


#17

Topic created specific to Ireland - Coronavirus - Ireland: Economic Fallout, Radical Times


#18

There will be serious questions to be answered about the EUs response to this when the dust settles

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/f94725c8-e038-4841-a5f6-2e046ae78e95


#19

https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/w/spain-become-first-european-country-introduce-universal-basic-income

Could C-19 hasten the introduction of UBI?


#20