Fallout - A Post Wuhan Coronavirus World


#9

I think the politics of this goes one of two ways.

First, the pan global approach is accepted as rational in the face of such a cross border threat to humanity. Problem with this outcome is that the pan national organisations such as the EU and WHO have perforned bady thus far. They appear very much deatached from whats happening on the ground.

Second outcome (more likely based on events to date), populations demand proper preparedness for similar future scenarios. At this point it looks like this could only be achieved by more political autonomy allied to a degree of increased economic self suffiiciency when it comes to the production of essentials as mentioned above.


#10

This isn’t our first rodeo. We know from 2008 that when a government tries to bail out the banking and rentier class they can grossly fail.

I don’t see any other way out from this but mass debt restructurings, write offs and debt for equity swaps. This realization will be slow to drop.


#11

Well Ireland is well ahead of the curve on bailouts and debt write offs. It’s been a test tube for over a decade.

But we all know you can’t bailout the majority. By definition. The majority will still end up footing the bill whatever you call it or whatever mechanism is used.


#12

I don’t think this is so like 2008. Its not US bonanza crash with ripples across the world any more. It’s collapse of US bubble and massive halt everywhere for… nobody knows how long.


#13

Maybe it’s time to look at the whole “debt based” monitory system and see that it really has reached the end of the line as it requires infinite growth to continue indefinitely, which on a finite planet is simply impossible. It has been fine tuned to the point that it is completely destabilized by any disruption, let alone a speed bump like COVID-19.

Perhaps it’s time to look at an investment based economy where money is sent into the economy at the bottom and flows up the path of least resistance as opposed to “trickle down” where most stays up at the top. Lets look at UBI as the economic “sump” and start from there.


#14

Maybe that is actually what is happening or something along similar lines. :ninja:


#15

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-26/the-second-virus-shockwave-is-hitting-china-s-factories-already

The factories might be up and running but where are the orders?


#16

Across the pond here in the UK I envisage the aftermath as a double-edged sword.

This could slow Brexit because negotiations will take a back seat or cause Brexit to be hastened as every single economic and financial catastrophe will be blamed on Cov19, not Brexit; this will embolden the Ultras.

Six of one…

My personal view is that the Post-19 world is further away than many think and over a longer period.
A potential second wave in Autumn will have profound social, political and economic effects across the world.

The 1000 deaths mark was passed today here and its a major topic of conversation… reality is hitting. The next 4-6 weeks will be the hardest.


#17

Topic created specific to Ireland - Coronavirus - Ireland: Economic Fallout, Radical Times


#18

There will be serious questions to be answered about the EUs response to this when the dust settles

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/f94725c8-e038-4841-a5f6-2e046ae78e95


#19

https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/w/spain-become-first-european-country-introduce-universal-basic-income

Could C-19 hasten the introduction of UBI?


#20

#21

The world whose dowry is great, has had but a tasting test of the first course of the proposed wedding feast. I am not sure it can stomach more let alone sign the contract for a shot gun wedding without a fight.


#22

The Chinese government has handed out “vouchers” to the populace to encourage spending. Apparently people are going crazy spending like never before as a result. The companies that survived the lockdown intact are making bigger profits than ever.


#23

I don’t believe any info coming from China. I’ve read yesterday that many places are pretending that there is an activity just to simulate “back to normal”

Look at Korea, massive testing and they are constantly finding new places where people are sick.

UBI is such a wet dream of some people… I remember reading the “white paper” from some lunatics in Ireland. In order to get UBI, we just need to tax everybody over 50%… of course not a single analysis about impact of extra money on inflation. Although, I guess inflation is imaginary to mainstream economy anyway so why bother? :sick_20:

Next 5 years are going to be extremely interesting. I mean it is bubble of all bubbles. It can’t end well, there must be a war after what FED did. Economic, virtual or conventional, but there will be a war because of this.

On the other side… I was watching the world from my balcony today and I wonder… Are EU leaders so stupid no to see what was coming or everybody agreed to let COVID spread and delay the bubble burst as long as possible?
To be honest wall street server room did not do anything for a very long time despite it was obvious that economies are going to stop.

I don’t get this, I don’t want to believe that our leaders are so stupid… eh joe from the street will never know for sure what happened, but he will pay for the party for sure.


#24

Probably worth saying this as I don’t see it stated anywhere in any media, but my eastern asian location is nearly back to normal except for the Uni students remaining to be taught online. Everything is open except for Cinema’s and the gym’s around me. I believe Gyms in the centre are open though. Everyone wears masks and in restaurants and in bars you get your temperature checked and there is an App to verify you’re in good health.
Gatherings and numbers are still meant to be limited to 10 people but there is a little leeway and in big bars and restaurants there are gaps between people but everything is open. All delivery companies and shops are open.
Everything is open as far as I can see.
One thing that I do note, is that I did see a number of people coughing and sneezing on my travels over the weekend. Nobody seems to bat an eyelid to this. They were very small in number but it felt like I was the only person taking notice.
I also have not seen anybody of pension age out and about.
My location did not have many cases of the virus. I know some doctors and I know this with certainty.


#25

‘Stupid’ is just a perspective though, isnt it?

Its not ‘stupid’ if its maintaining your wealth or position.

I take your points but, if this is a ruse to preserve the equilibrium of a massively unstable system - I cannot see how coming out of this ‘lockdown’ is remotely possible. More than that, I cannot see how this lockdown preserves wealth if you cannot sell or trade assets.


#26

Aren’t nearly all those transactions done electronically these days, PC, internet & knowledge, what else do you need to trade.


#27

Interesting to see this type of article beginning to appear in places like the IT. Two months ago you could conceivably be labelled xenophobic or even racist for suggesting that seeking to decouple from global supply chains may be a positive ie its basically the underlying premise for both Trump and Brexit. Now it simply seems like common sense.

Of course, in order for that to occur, significant change would need to be incorporated into our business (and life) model of the past 40 odd years.

Basic issues around cost would need to be addressed before domestic manufacturers could hope to compete successfully with global competitors. Obviously wages first and foremost but in order to achieve that housing costs need to come down such that a mortgage may once again become affordable based on a competitive wage. If this proves impossible then either competing in terms of quality or a significant degree of protectionism would likely need to be introduced ( a la Trumpian style tariffs). Levels of inward migration would also need to be reduced in order for the cost of housing to be addressed.

Of course it may be a case of these changes and others coming about by necessity rather than design. A small time importer friend has a load of stock, already paid for, sitting on the other side of the world. He doesnt expect to receive it this year and reckons he has enough cash to survive as is for another three months. After that all bets are off.


#28