Fallout - A Post Wuhan Coronavirus World


#21

The world whose dowry is great, has had but a tasting test of the first course of the proposed wedding feast. I am not sure it can stomach more let alone sign the contract for a shot gun wedding without a fight.


#22

The Chinese government has handed out “vouchers” to the populace to encourage spending. Apparently people are going crazy spending like never before as a result. The companies that survived the lockdown intact are making bigger profits than ever.


#23

I don’t believe any info coming from China. I’ve read yesterday that many places are pretending that there is an activity just to simulate “back to normal”

Look at Korea, massive testing and they are constantly finding new places where people are sick.

UBI is such a wet dream of some people… I remember reading the “white paper” from some lunatics in Ireland. In order to get UBI, we just need to tax everybody over 50%… of course not a single analysis about impact of extra money on inflation. Although, I guess inflation is imaginary to mainstream economy anyway so why bother? :sick_20:

Next 5 years are going to be extremely interesting. I mean it is bubble of all bubbles. It can’t end well, there must be a war after what FED did. Economic, virtual or conventional, but there will be a war because of this.

On the other side… I was watching the world from my balcony today and I wonder… Are EU leaders so stupid no to see what was coming or everybody agreed to let COVID spread and delay the bubble burst as long as possible?
To be honest wall street server room did not do anything for a very long time despite it was obvious that economies are going to stop.

I don’t get this, I don’t want to believe that our leaders are so stupid… eh joe from the street will never know for sure what happened, but he will pay for the party for sure.


#24

Probably worth saying this as I don’t see it stated anywhere in any media, but my eastern asian location is nearly back to normal except for the Uni students remaining to be taught online. Everything is open except for Cinema’s and the gym’s around me. I believe Gyms in the centre are open though. Everyone wears masks and in restaurants and in bars you get your temperature checked and there is an App to verify you’re in good health.
Gatherings and numbers are still meant to be limited to 10 people but there is a little leeway and in big bars and restaurants there are gaps between people but everything is open. All delivery companies and shops are open.
Everything is open as far as I can see.
One thing that I do note, is that I did see a number of people coughing and sneezing on my travels over the weekend. Nobody seems to bat an eyelid to this. They were very small in number but it felt like I was the only person taking notice.
I also have not seen anybody of pension age out and about.
My location did not have many cases of the virus. I know some doctors and I know this with certainty.


#25

‘Stupid’ is just a perspective though, isnt it?

Its not ‘stupid’ if its maintaining your wealth or position.

I take your points but, if this is a ruse to preserve the equilibrium of a massively unstable system - I cannot see how coming out of this ‘lockdown’ is remotely possible. More than that, I cannot see how this lockdown preserves wealth if you cannot sell or trade assets.


#26

Aren’t nearly all those transactions done electronically these days, PC, internet & knowledge, what else do you need to trade.


#27

Interesting to see this type of article beginning to appear in places like the IT. Two months ago you could conceivably be labelled xenophobic or even racist for suggesting that seeking to decouple from global supply chains may be a positive ie its basically the underlying premise for both Trump and Brexit. Now it simply seems like common sense.

Of course, in order for that to occur, significant change would need to be incorporated into our business (and life) model of the past 40 odd years.

Basic issues around cost would need to be addressed before domestic manufacturers could hope to compete successfully with global competitors. Obviously wages first and foremost but in order to achieve that housing costs need to come down such that a mortgage may once again become affordable based on a competitive wage. If this proves impossible then either competing in terms of quality or a significant degree of protectionism would likely need to be introduced ( a la Trumpian style tariffs). Levels of inward migration would also need to be reduced in order for the cost of housing to be addressed.

Of course it may be a case of these changes and others coming about by necessity rather than design. A small time importer friend has a load of stock, already paid for, sitting on the other side of the world. He doesnt expect to receive it this year and reckons he has enough cash to survive as is for another three months. After that all bets are off.


#28

#29

One group want a Wuhan forever World and one group want a Post Wuhan world.

The battle is well underway.


#30

My tuppence worth
We are heading for a recession and maybe but unlikely a depression
Every major economic body is saying this as a matter of fact ,with one notable absentee from this list ,the Estate Agents who are saying we will bounce back quickly
Rents will drop due to a number of factors
Air b&b properties will come on the market as in the short to medium term there will be no demand and owners will want some return
If and when pubs ,restaurants return it will be with fewer customers due to social distancing and I can see a lot of immigrant service workers returning home to live with family
Things will be no better at home but t least rent will be free and family as backup
This will free up more properties
Higher unemployment will mean more Irish renters returning home to the nest to live with parents ,boomerang kids as they are sometimes called,this will free up more properties .
Also higher unemployment means renters will not be able to afford higher rents
All these factors should leave to falling rents ,and IMO only I can see rents dropping by 25-40%
Commercial property esp office space will also drop in price as more and more companies realise that a lot of employees can successfully work from home
Warehousing space will be in demand to cater for online shopping which will continue to see a major increase
On the sales side, higher unemployment,nervous banks and a general lack of cash in the economy will see prices drop.
Add landlords selling properties whose rent no longer meets mortgage repayments ,or landlords who need to sell to enable them to pay the mortgage on principal residences will see a lot of properties on the market and prices fall
Already anecdotal evidence of banks valuing houses at 10% less


Banks will be nervous ,mortgages will be harder to come by and for lesser amounts so house prices will fall
My personal opinion is they will fall by 20-30%.
Certain types of property will take a lesser hit
Those with home offices
Those with en-suite bedrooms that allow for self isolation
Those with Granny flats ,that can be used for offices and self isolation
There is a bone of contention that viruses like this could become a once a decade occurrence rather than a once a century occurrence,and lockdowns becoming more frequent .
If we get a V shaped recovery then none of this may come to pas but my expectation is that we get a long jagged recovery with further outbreaks and lockdowns depressing the economy until a vaccine is found
When the estate agents are the only ones shouting no Property price collapse as the did vociferously in 2008 then you know they are worried and urinating into the wind
Finally ,not a good time to own a pub or restaurant as these will take a major hit and will reopen with reduced capacity,which I suppose can be applied to a lot of leisure activities such as GYMS ,concert venues etc
We will all have to get used to a new normal way of living
Askl yourself would you be happy going into a packed pub or restaurant when the lockdown is released
Herd immunity through a VACCINE is the only way out of this


#31

Get them all out on the streets ,in the shops ,in the pubs ,on the beaches spending money
Guess what happens then
The virus flares up again and its back to square one
The Government already warning retailers that when they open not to have promotions /sales that would encourage crowds
The easing of restrictions will be done slowly and carefully monitored and rightfully so
2 or 3 more flare ups and lock downs would be disastrous economically for Ireland


#33

#34

Lara Marlowe with a long read in the IT, focussing primarily on the future of Franco-Chinese relations.


#35

Does it mention anything along the lines once the Chinese got plans/blueprints/tech as such, they showed the French the door.


#36

Yep says that. And more. That China has overplayed it’s hand.

Although US president Donald Trump is widely disliked in Europe, researchers and diplomats say European officials and the public agree with much of what he says about China.


#37

Most observant people will have noticed that China has adopted the attitude that they will be as nice as possible to obtain as much intellectual knowledge as possible while undermining western industrial competitiveness as much as possible to gain the upper hand in future trading relationships.

Once a dominant trading position is obtained “no more Mr nice guy!” they’ll make the west pay and pay big for products, while keeping to a price point just below the trigger point where a western company can restart and make a profit.

The COVID-19 outbreak has exposed this as the danger to the west that it really is.


#38

It is more a case of acceleration that something new on all those examples


#39

The thought that people would even comtemplate having their phones explicitly configured to track their movements and reporting back to a central govenment agency, would have been dismissed out of hand a few months ago. It would have been considered too Orewllian 1984, but here we are, mobile phones are getting OS upgrades to do exactly that and the general population are happy with it!


#40

Yeah but as our friend Roc says, Orwell was a far right nut job

Stop asking questions about Big Brother, learn to love him


#41

Personally, id say a 90% economy would be optimistic in the case of Ireland, given tourism and services play such a big role here. Also, has our lockdown been more Italian (25%) than Korean (10%)? Who knows