Fallout - A Post Wuhan Coronavirus World


#42

OK so some great points in this thread but one or two that I am familiar with are slightly off target.

Warehousing space is just storage - like any other type of storage.
The next stage of ‘online’ is Interpolating technology into this arena.
So, for example, products will be produced and shipped and orders will be met from the already shipped stock, so that required product will be offloaded and delivered directly to the customer - cutting out the sitting-in-a-warehouse stage.
Additionally disruptive tech similar to shipping containers will disrupt land transportation.
A widget off the boat from China will be loaded onto a truck in Portsmouth or Cork and, by the magic of computers, will meet and transfer to another truck - in motion - that is closer to the destination.
So robotic trucks will advertise (and alter on demand) their routes. They will carry, transfer and receive product - while on the go - to and from other similar units.
Storage will be less in demand, not more.

More immediately, here in the UK there is a big problem in Pensions.
In particular private pensions - those who manage their own pension funds.
At age 55 some pension fund holders can withdraw - tax free - I think its 20% of the total value of their pension. as many of these pensions contain property this has a big effect on the tax free grab!
So if I have 100k cash and 100k property in my pension, I can with draw 20% of total valuation, or £40k.
If my property falls in value by 50% - and this must be assessed by a professional surveyor - I only have assets of 150k and can only withdraw 30k.
Scale this up to multiple millions and multiple properties and you can see a problem emerging.

Some UK banks requesting 40% deposits on certain residential mortgages should give you an indicator of the direction we’re headed.

g’night all…


#43

“Everyone is worried about coronavirus, about the elderly, the vulnerable. But it seems that those of us that are not elderly, yet still live alone, have been forgotten. On the news I hear the reminder, only exercise with your household, I see families everywhere enjoying time together. But what about us, who don’t have a household? We are lucky to have comforts and a roof over our heads, but human interaction is the biggest need of all. The other day I thanked a lady for moving out of my way whilst on a walk, as there was a hedge and I could go no further. Instead of smiling and moving on, she shouted at me that I could have moved. She was the first physical person I had spoken to in two weeks, and I cried when I got home. Whilst it is a hard time for everyone, I wish people would remember that they may be the first person you have seen today, and at least try to be nice.”

Pretty bleak reports of life in lockdown for those without family.

Whats the likelihood that this experience causes a lot of people to reassess their personal priorities?

The Career/consumer model must seem pretty vacuous when youre stuck on your own in a flat for weeks on end.

Even the disdain many have felt toward the standard Irish 3 bed semi may be reassessed. Those with a garden and their own space are infinitely better off currently than those in apartment blocks.

If many are going to be transitioning to a life where working from home becomes the norm, its likely that a home with a garden will become even more desirable.

The benefits of apartment living (especially the type of apts on offer in Ireland) was that it generally removed the necessity to commute daily while also locating the occupier in a central location when it came to shops, bars and other consumerables. In a recessionary environment where social distancing is the “new normal” and with many people working from home apartments clearly lose their appeal.

Will people even be willing to share flats with strangers anymore?


#44

People like WFH, they may not be too pleased if they’re expected to return to the 40 hours + stupidly long commute after the crisis is over.


#45

Twitter employees to work from home ‘forever’


#46

Squeaky bum time for Commercial landlords the world over.


#47

I’d guess you’ve made half a dozen comments about how working from home should be enforced at gunpoint but it’s not really workable for everyone. It isolates people. How do you onboard grads? Co-location creates teams and rapid problem solving is far more likely in this environment.


#48

We have been told we are not going back into our office this year - at least not in any large scale way. We have several office buildings in Ireland and when we do go back in, we are going to be hot desking and working from home 1-2 days a week. Some will work from home 90% of the time. We expect to significantly reduce our office footprint in the coming years while maintaining or slightly increasing the headcount.

I know of other companies are looking at doing something similar. Potentially a lot of office space freeing up to go with all the empty retail units from Debenhams, Topshop, Next, Oasis, Wearhouse and whoever else are vacating units across Ireland right now…


#49

Talk about putting two and two together and ending up with nine! WFH is great in the right circumstances and of course it is not suitable for all.

But if this situation has proven anything, it’s proven that WHF is a realistic proposition for far more people than was previously thought. It may eventually lead to a major expansion of the “open office” type of premisses being set up in regional towns everywhere for staff to avail of high speed internet and other office facilities such as printing (quality laser printers as opposed to cheap home printers).


#50

Interesting blog from Jeff Clarke COO of Dell about how he sees the future of the business, work from home, supply chains etc. The world really is changing because of this, worth a read.


#51

Does that mean that the only premises needed by these multi nationals into the future would be a production facility (in Dells case) and a registered office for tax putposes?

Presumably all those Google and Facebook techies could do their job from India or China (assuming connectivity) rather than having to physicaly move to Grand Canal Dock.

If so, thats a further hit for local consumption, rents etc etc.


#52

Dell have been pushing people into remote working for over a decade and it’s always been about sectoral cost savings without looking at the whole. Remember this is the company that bought VMware and EMC at exactly the wrong time for obscene amounts of money and then went private in order to hide the embarrassment on wall street. I worked for them in the 00’s and I can tell you penny pinching is the culture, remember Dell started as a low cost PC manufacturer and became successful by establishing a negative cost conversion cycle, paying suppliers 90 days after you got your PC, no innovation, no new tech, BIOS development shipped to China in the 90’s, yes they are remarkable if you are viewing supply chain, logistics and marketing. If you go looking you will probably see a similar article every year.


#53

You know, that didn’t occur to me but now you mention it, that probably is exactly what it means.

Our corporation tax will attract them but with all this working from home stuff of the future , we wont benefit from their workers being here paying taxes and spending their income in the local economy. Then again local customers often prefer local support for cultural reasons.

I can see this benefitting the UK at our expense as presumably the big multinationals sell far more kit there than here and the Dutch and Germans seem hellbent on breaking up the Eurozone right now so that benefit may expire too.

Doesn’t bode well for us really.


#54

In general people who WFH will have more spending power in their localities, so regional restaurants for example, will see an increase in future customers as it will only be a few minutes down the road as opposed to long drive home followed by another drive to the restaurant.

The biggest losers will be, of course these “centres of excellence” that have popped up all over Dublin sucking in people from ridiculous distances just so they can all sit in the same building and be “managed”.


#55

With regard to working from home are the “bosses” happy about it?

Middle management are losing their status and senior management may be seeing a drop in productivity? Mightyz mentions people not being available during the day. All the people that swanned around the office having meetings - how do they justify their existence?

I can definitely see shared accommodation and accommodation without its own outside space becoming a lot less popular. Many people might try to insource their childcare with aupairs etc, especially if there’s a lot of “language students” who don’t have hospitality work.

The economy needs new “luxuries” to mop up spending, with no bars, restaurants, foreign holidays etc. Even the personal care industry will suffer if we have more social distancing, nailbars, reiki healers etc etc. What will the monied class spend on?


#56

In terms of the scale of unintended consequences:

One thing is clear, never let your health service run your country and fight the war.


#57

What’s another year… ah now I get why Johnny Logan was trending on twitter! :icon_eek:

A former state epidemiologist for Sweden has claimed Ireland’s coronavirus lockdown is pushing the serious cases into the future.

Dr Johan Giesecke has also claimed the Irish approach is “destroying the fabric” of our society and economy.

Sweden has never gone into full lockdown - instead opting for a ‘soft’ approach.

They are keeping shops and restaurants open, and relying on people limiting their contact with other people.

Over 3,500 people have died there, but the hope is most of the population would be immune if there is a second wave.

Dr Giesecke, who is advising the Swedish government on its approach, told Newstalk Breakfast it is a better approach than the path Ireland is taking.

"One example is your neighbour the United Kingdom: they have more deaths per million inhabitants than Sweden has.

“The other is that what you do is you push your cases into the future - many people will get infected once you open the lockdown”.

"But you can’t keep a lockdown in Ireland for a year, that would be impossible."

He said he believes ultimately everyone will get the virus: "That’s true for all respiratory tract infections like this - influenza, measles - you can’t get rid of them without a vaccine.

“If a good vaccine comes along, then I’m wrong - but if not, everyone will get it in the end”.

"I don’t think that the serial lock-up is a very good solution.

"You’re destroying the fabric of your society and your economy - and you [are] pushing the serious cases into the future."

He added that while he agrees on flattening the curve through a lockdown, “they will not prevent people from coming infected in the future”.

https://www.newstalk.com/news/swedish-expert-irish-lockdown-pushing-serious-cases-future-1015773?fbclid=IwAR3NpV3iK7ZR_M12dWK785Et_Czo6PpMJ0ozmBH4jru2igd5GL5oPbs6MUQ


#58

I don’t understand this argument - I would have assumed that the only answer to “Would you like to die now or next winter?” Would be- “Next winter, thanks.”

Let alone the chance however slim that therapies and or vaccines might come along.

And there seems to be a high correlation between pro life (at the start of life) and let’s get out there and get all this dying over with as fast as possible, sure it’s only old people. Which seems counter-intuitive to me.


#59

I don’t agree

  • I am convinced by Anders Tegnell’s argument that without lockdowns the people gain herd immunity so that there is not a second peak, plus curtail the economic damage, poverty, debt, depression etc. which all correlate with life expectancy.

#60

Anecdotal - speaking to a doctor and nurse recently who tested positive in March. Both have blood clotting going on now.


#61

Spain is showing 5-10% of the population with antibodies after a very rough couple of months. That seems to be a long way off herd immunity numbers. And what if immunity isn’t long lasting, then you have emptied your old folks homes for very little benefit. I mean it’s all very well saying it only hits the vulnerable, but I would hope to be in the vulnerable group in 30 years time and wouldn’t mind a bit of social solidarity.

My anecdote is the wife of a work colleague, mid 40’s, no pre-existing conditions afaik, ended up with lesions on the brain and is now in rehab learning to speak again.