Here is a multi value poll. You predict the Month of the next Emergency Budget **AND **the ‘shortfall’ caused by the Feb Returns against projections , these returns are due next week.
You ONLY have to do better than the Department of Finance and what they projected on the 17th of December a few days before these greaseballs reversed their own paycuts.
We discussed the heinous January returns only a few short weeks back. I feel that the February returns will set the scene for the next emergency budget which will take place in April (latest May) as I predicted in the January ReturnThread.
I also linked the Department of Finance 17 December Projection and a 2009 profile across the 2010 returns in a later post HERE to help the Pin experts.
MY projection was that based on January the INCOME stream was trending an ANNUAL €3.4bn lower by end January…ie that EXCEPTING further bank recapitalisations the government would have to cut a further €3.4bn to balance the books at the deficit level they projected in December.
Not very long now so it is your call your numbers …and your country.
[2pack edit] added General Election or Not as Choice 3 after you predict date and number.
Ah, you should really allow a none of the above for both options. I think the budget will be April, it will be disguised as the implementation of social security tax reform (and will effectively be big tax hikes on the low paid, in particular, and everyone else (as I expect it will basically be flat taxes)), but I think the NTMA set the bar very low for themselves (got to justify beating those targets somehow!), so I don’t expect interest payments to be near as bad as predicted.
IF there is a mini-budget of sorts it will involve big cuts in spending - particularly in social welfare and capital spending. On the revenue side I agree with yogan that it will be the early implementation of the social solidarity tax that will hit the lower paid by bringing the minimum wage into the tax net, so to speak, although its real purpose will be to plug the €2-3billion annual hole now emerging in the social insurance fund.
BTW the February income tax number will be a whopper with income tax taking a big hit with the public service pay cuts and the deduction of the November strike in January and paid to revenue in February.
No emergency budget, no election, FF will just sit on a diminishing economy and not say a word.
When you talk about those shortfalls, do you mean shortfall of actual income over projected income in Feb or shortfall of income / expenditure in Feb. If the former, less than 1bn, if the latter 2-2.5bn. If you’re talking about ytd shortfalls, double those figures.
The normal budget cycle does not commence until September and the DoF does not send out the what is known as the annual ‘end of the world’ budgetary parameters to depts. until June. So why the urgency in next Friday?
The February tax take last year was €5.76billion so 20% down will put them at circa €4.6billion, or €200million below monthly profile. That is a big fall in just one month that is not even a VAT month!