Fernside, Killiney Hill Road, Killiney (-5.425m, -72.3%)


#5

So ewd3 any idea when this type of house will be worth 750k cos I wouldn’t mind buying it!!

I agree with 23rdbuchan and disagree when you say nobody has any money - there will always be people with money and plenty of people who would snap this up for even 1.5m.


#6

:laughing: at the bottom in 10 years

no seriously though here’s my thinking

I could already rent a similar house for 8 k on the same road

daft.ie/searchrental.daft?id=559818&search=1

at 12 times the annual rent the ceiling for this place would be around €960k

with rents falling I believe the 8k is a lot of rent to ask for , maybe 5k would be more appropriate and therefore you would have an appropriate coresponding drop.

Certainly €1.5 million paid for this house would represent a highly risky financial transaction.


#7

Damn - I was hoping you’d say two years time :smiley:

I can appreciate your calculations - it does make logical sense but I think it leaves out the fact that for some cultural reason Irish people like to own. I think its the main thing that does make us different in relation to property. In most european countries renting is the norm. Maybe this recession will bring the cultural shift?


#8

It might be in 10 years time

the fact is this house I feel will have a 3-4 time premium on a nice 4 bed in blackrock

Those were trading at 1 million plus but will probably go to 200k or less
and that would be fair rather than undervaluation.

If the IMF step in… who knows.

people really really overestimate how much this stuff is worth.


#9

Ah please now let’s keep some semblance of reality.

I’d love if your prediction were true as I’d quite fancy that place myself. However, unless your doomsday scenario involves a nuclear winter and/or flesh-eating zombies, you’re only dreaming…


#10

See my rental value based valuation above.


#11

On the market again €2,500,000 …

myhome.ie/residential/brochu … in/2342944

Damon Hill owned it in the late 90’s for a few years.


#12

The owners of the other mega-mansion in the area clonevin must be grimacing at this unless they have already sold (although it is a beautiful looking house). I think buyers here have been getting really good value in Killiney for half and acre (coundon house, st arnaud) to well over an acre (several on marino avenue). These are nice houses on big sites. The commute might be an issue, however this is still a very nice place to live ? Maybe the fall in peak to today value for Killiney is no different to average D4 equivalent.


#13

Where’s ewd3 these days…? I want to see if he/she is still sticking with the 750k prediction.


#14

I think you would have a 2004-style queue outside the gate at 750k (and I would be in it)!

Will be interesting to see how this fares as it has been tricky to get much over the two mark for houses this far out - when it has been achieved, the place has usually been in very good nick. Still, this place must have as good a chance as any?


#15

I think it is relatively good value, however I would be kicking myself if I paid €2.50m for this when Bartra House went for €3.00m. Bartra House sat on 2.1 acres, was bigger, had views galore and is for a fact one of Dublin’s greatest homes. Obviously there’s no point in crying over the past, but that is my only thought when I think of this price. I think Damon Hill paid about £575k back in 1995 for Fernside and the O’Reillys gave €1.95m the year later (1996) for Bartra House. Now they’re practically at the same price point, so either Bartra was underpriced or this is still overpriced.

On a side note, it was also for sale in 2002 for €5m but failed to sell at auction and was subsequently rented for approx €10,000/mo


#16

That is very telling (incredible info by the way)

These kind of out of town major houses (clooneevin, vico ville and bartra) seem even more geared to the general wealth level. It is when Irish people are feeling rich that the price really moves. Otherwise they stay dormant and hard to sell. Anytime one of these places really has to get sold, the price moves a lot (bartra and vico vile being examples).

Do you know if Damon Hill ever sold by the way?


#17

I believe that DH is still the owner (perhaps the buyer will get few laps of Silverstone thrown in!)

Lovely looking although with a good bit of work to do I would suspect given it has been semi-vacant for so long.

I do love this part of Dublin however it is far out, and its two natural buyers / supporters, are absent.

The international rock & sports stars taking advantage of the low tax artists exemption don’t seem keen anymore. They seem to be going straight to Monacco and the likes (who could blame them give our previous wet summers).

The developers … well enough said.

I think that high-end sales over the last few years in this area have been focused on ex. pats?


#18

Good post SoCoDu. Sure seems like disparity between Bartra house and this… or there’s just a percentage of top end buyers who draw the line just before 3m!


#19

FYI - was comparing Bartra vs. Fernside on google earth, and while the Bartra site looks the full 2 acres and is a huge building, Fernside could not be on a site that is much over 1 acre and I struggle to see how it is a full 7000 sq ft (looks more like c. 5000 sq ft of building). Don’t know if you actually had the chance to inspect both SoCoDu?


#20

I hear that this is still struggling to get over the 2m mark (1m an acre is tricky for Killiney).
A fine period house on large grounds, and closer to the Hill which I think is more valuable?
Never really liked the styling of these period houses (there is a row of them)
Looks a bit like a ‘torquay guesthouse’ vs. say Cloneevin (nearby), and don’t know if you can soften / change this ?
The whole re-furb of a fully listed house is intimidating.
To their credit, the planners are quite hard core on this area (which has saved and preserved this area).
However the neighbouring Cliff House did a very large re-fit and their full planning docs are on the planning website.
These are 2-4 year projects and do require a skill and care to get the planners to properly modernise them.
I agree with SoCoDu however that this is a very fine property with great grounds.


#21

I see this has gone Sale Agreed (finally) - anybody know for how much ?


#22

Sale Unagreed … back on the market today with a 300k drop, down from 2.5 to 2.2 (-12%)

www.myhome.ie/2342944


#23

Sold for €2,075,000
propertypriceregisterireland.com … and-91600/


#24

Planning has gone up on Fernside by the new owner Philip Gannon (D14A/0599).
Looking to do some basic work (new garage plus a hideous looking iron gate in my view).

Fernside came to market in 2008 and in 2013 - both times claiming to be on “2 acres”.

2008 Articles
independent.ie/business/irish/chris-de-burgh-finally-woos-council-26463138.html
irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/killiney-home-by-embassy-residence-back-on-market-1.945475

2013 Articles
independent.ie/life/home-garden/homes/elevated-views-of-killiney-bay-29102243.html
irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/killiney-houses-on-the-move-again-1.2097123

Fernside’s 2015 planning confirms that Fernside is on a 0.4147 ha (1.0 acres) site !!!
(architects seem less dishonest than EAs - not necessarily a great boast)
(house is 580sq m / 6,200 sq ft. and not 7,000 sq ft.)

I have heard of rounding up but that is really ridiculous (and hardly legal in my view ???).

Fernside’s claim to offer 2 Acres + Large Period House + Off Killiney Hill Road for c 2.0m, caused havoc with pricing of others at the time. In hindsight should have checked the planning of neighbouring Cliff House (massive renovation in the naughties), which despite being on a much bigger site, is recorded at c. 1.5 acres in its planning docs.

The Planning websites really are a great addition in doing diligence on houses (esp. vs. unscrupulous agents)

Acres aside, the buyer of Fernside still got a very good deal by any standards, for example:

Fernside @ 2.075m = 28% of 2007 peak asking of 7.5m (this probably right vs. neighbouring Cliff House earlier sale price).

Eirene @ 1.35m = 23% of 2007 peak asking of 6m (asking was high, being so close to DART an issue).
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=10101&p=669214&hilit=eirene#p669214

Dromeen @ 600k = 32% of Mar 2005 sale price of 1.9m (peak would have been c. 2.2m or 6.5m an acre, giving 27%).
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=52354&p=831028&hilit=dromeen#p831028

Buena Vista @ 1.1m = 22% of Mid 2004 sale price of 5m (peak would have been c. 6.5m, giving 17%).
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=59203&p=831214&hilit=buena+vista#p831214

Paddock Wood @ 4m 33% of peak valuation of 12m (take off the 1m of remedial costs and the net price was 25% of peak).
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=60830&p=831479&hilit=paddock+wood#p831479

Cloneevin @ 2.9m 29% of peak valuation of 10m (well renovated and would be certainly asking up to 10m at peak).
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=45484

These metrics are similar to benchmark +2m houses on best roads in D4 & D6 fell to in 2012, about c. 25% of peak value.