FinFacts: IMF says Ireland's unemployment rate would be 20%

Story carried by FinFacts.ie 20th Dec 2012

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](https://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1025365.shtml)

Blue Horseshoe

Greentree, in his latest review of BS unemployment statistics generated by the Irish Government says that “the count of people on the live register does not equal the number of people unemployed”.

Interesting to see a statistic put on that, I had wondered how much the emigration safety-valve was keeping unemployment down. And of course, if those people were here and unemployed (or displacing other less-able workers who are currently employed) we’d have higher welfare bills and a worsened deficit.

I thought later parts of the finfacts article were interesting too…

This topic has been done to death here, of course, but there is some interesting analysis, they comment on “a significant public wage premium, especially at the lower ends of the earnings distribution.” which certainly fits with my observations and with those of acquaintances in the public sector.

Looking further at healthcare costs…

I’m glad to see this get any kind of coverage. Medicines costs way more than they ought to, and all I can put it down to is either carelessness/inattention or lobbying by pharmacists (who make money through markup-percentage) and pharma companies (the latter perhaps not so much for the money they make off Irish patients, since it’s a small population, but for the value of having a high price in the European market which then gets used by other countries when they do their own benchmarking)

They sure do. Every so often this topic is discussed in print, broadcast and internet media…but they STILL cost way too much. :unamused:

Just looked back at notes to see when the ESRI report on this issued: Jan 2012

What I find strange is how expensive even non-prescription drugs are in Ireland, say compared to UK. Say paracetamol, even comparing Boots in two jurisdictions 16p vs €1.49:
boards.ie/vbulletin/showthre … p=73562516

later in that thread…

I don’t think you can get Prep H in the republic anymore, so he was as well to stock up. He or She will need it

Should probably get some KY as a preventative

Not to worry, the FG fan boys reckon we’ve turned the corner. 420,000 unemployed/underemployed and 100,000 emigrating every year. Shur, she’ll be grand.

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In one way I would not mind seeing Ireland going for a second bailout. Now that the IMF know how out of line are PS pay is they could put a condition into the future money we require from them to make structural changes to PS pay before a tranche of money is released.

This has been a tough week for a lot of people. I spent today trying to secure the products I had paid for after the supplier went into receivership. Other suppliers saying they have laid off lots of staff this week too. Very sad to see empty desks and the lights off where just the week before there were people working.

Laying off staff at this time of the year? I thought they would be busy what with Christmas and all that.

I wonder what Jan and Feb will be like?

+1

That was an insight I got on the Pin some time ago: that a retail operation (e.g.) could be losing money badly on an annual basis, but still Dec, maybe Jan too (with sales) would be profitable months. But after Jan sale (liquidating some stock) woudl be the time for a hard decision and a close-down. It’s obvious I guess, but I never ran a shop so it never occurred to me.

Of course that is unless a cash squeeze nailed you before that (but again, with December you’d expect to be getting a good influx of cash). Hopefully some of those emigrants mentioned in the IMF report are coming home for Christmas to spend their foreign dollars on Irish bling-und-tat.
(edited for sloppiness)

I bought a few things but all were made in Asia!

Foiled again! :imp: We’d have had your shekels if it wasn’t for those pesky (Asian) kids!

Of course, the changes in the budget may have put the final nail in the coffin.

previously, employers could claim back 60% the redundancy payment in the year in which they made someone redundant. The geniuses in Kildare St decided to restrict that to 15% of the payment paid from 2013 onwards. So, if someone was going to make an employee redundant, they should do it before the year end or lose more money. Things are a bit fcuked up when i am advising people to let employees go before Christmas because it will save them money.

I am not a retailer but if my experience is anything to go by, payment up front for goods is now nearly normal, which has to be financed, so you might be looking at a good Christmas but have no way to get the stock,as watch what happens if you request a seasonal overdraft from the pillar Banks… Cash squeeze it is.

I thought they reduced it to zero from15% in 2012, from 60% in 2011. The Talk Talk thing in Waterford was a factor

So I guess the choice boils down to looking at how much stock you’re sitting on, and whether you’ll be able to use the Christmas to unwind some of the working capital out of the business in a more profitable way than a liquidation. (The redundancy point Tax Avoider added is really perverse, and probably tips the balance for some businesses.)

Very anecdotal evidence – stock has run out of lots of popular stuff this xmas; retailers either expected a quieter xmas, or were unable to finance the stock.