FinMin "Biffo" Cowen calls the top of the cycle

From RTÉ.ie, 18th October 2007

On Six One news, in an interview Minister Cowen actuall says “It’s a turning point for the economy”

Blue Horseshoe

Well if, as stated by the Government, that every reduction of 10,000 in the amount of new homes built per annum knocks a percentage point off the growth figure - and given that most people round here seem to believe that a projection of 60,000 new units in 2008 is quite optimistic - what will the real growth figure turn out to be?
Prepare for speeches relating to the tightening of belts in the national interest etc

Dr Alan Ahearne thinks it will be zero or even turn negative.
Judging by the speed with which various economists are downgrading their projections this outcome is entirely possible.
I know my local builder who built 70 plus houses this year says he will only be building 10 next year as he has a big overhang of unsold inventory and little sign of it shifting.

I thought we built 93,419 houses in 2006?

someone better tell Mr Cowan that if we get 70k next year that will be 2% points knocked off the growth figure.

Now if the CFI are right at their 45000 completions figure, that will be nearly 5 points knocked off, which puts us into “Negative growth”, hmm what’s the other word for that? Recesssomething

Ah, that would be “inverse” growth. To go with our equivalent snobbery sitting next to the deep fried potato julienne on our shoulder.

If NO new house was built in 2008 we would still struggle to shift all the housing stock that is for sale at the moment.

Deal with it Bungie!

funny! :laughing:

This is totally unpatriotic from Cowen.

He should really do the decent thing as pointed out by the Taoiseach earlier this year… :unamused:

Doom monger.

**whizzbang **wrote

The system of compilation is time for a change. Any future year will be compared with say 50 years ago. With any luck, that might throw up a figure of say 6% growth.

Tom Parlon on Newstalk … [13 mins]