First-time buyers clamber back on the housing ladder

So says the Times

irishtimes.com/business/pers … -1.1513675

“They [FTB’s] typically want a three-bed semi-detached or terrace with a garden of some description, but there is a lack of supply for that kind of property,” he says, adding that he has seen “no interest at all in apartments”.

Always good to hear - now how much does a 3-bed semi currently cost in Dublin? 300k - 400k min?

2 chances in my book of FTB’s re-entering the market at these levels - still nice to see optimistic wishful thinking!

Depends on your definition of “in Dublin”.

edit: from Daft report Q2 2013:

per sq m

Dublin City Centre €2,632
North Dublin City €2,833
South Dublin City €3,784
North County Dublin €2,474
South County Dublin €3,971
West Dublin €2,074

If 3-bed semi is 120sqm, then I get:

Dublin City Centre €315,840
North Dublin City €339,960
South Dublin City €454,080
North County Dublin €296,880
South County Dublin €476,520
West Dublin €248,880

“Dowling notes “a sea change” in attitude among savvy first-time buyers, who are now opting to borrow what they believe they can afford – rather than what the bank might be willing to lend them.”

I see that common sense is now considered “savviness”

They have little choice - on the other side prudent lending is now considered ‘savviness’ as well!

Meanwhile, back in the real world…

i292.photobucket.com/albums/mm9/Coles-01/ImpactofMIRIBFData_zpsf1596a6b.jpg

i292.photobucket.com/albums/mm9/Coles-01/ImpactQ2IBFData_zps5ee27777.jpg

I’m not seeing the increase in First Time Buyers. Q2 2013 appears to be ‘broadly in line’ with the previous couple of dead years.

Thanks for the charts Coles, says a lot really! Are you able to extrapolate data for the Dublin region from your source?

This whole phony recovery BS is starting to aggravate me. Its not that I don’t want a recovery, it’s more that the assertion (widely pumped in ‘da media’) is based on nothing concrete.

Coles how far back does the data extend?

Comparing current activity to bubble time madness is not very informative.

Ideally what does today’s activity look like when compared to say 2000.

In the above charts the data extends back to 2005.

It is informative when someone tries to claim that FTBs have returned to the market in significant numbers. Clearly they haven’t.

There’s a job for you. Find the data and post it up.

Total Loans Paid
Q2 2000: 18,580
Q2 2005: 27,040

Sources:
environ.ie/en/Publications/S … tatistics/
environ.ie/en/Publications/S … 129,en.pdf
environ.ie/en/Publications/S … 115,en.pdf

+1. Good find.

That really does put things in perspective.

1996 56k mortgages issued
1997 57k mortgages issued
1998 61k mortgages issued
1999 71k mortgages issued
2000 74k mortgages issued
2001 68k mortgages issued
2002 79k mortgages issued
2003 85k mortgages issued
2004 99k mortgages issued
2005 107k mortgages issued

On the basis of the above 60k to 70k new mortgages per year would represent a normal market.

There are some really good information on the 2005 report.

86% of mortgages in 2005 were for amounts less than €300k. The comparable figure in 2001 was 98.7%.

63.8% households who drew down a mortgage in 2005 had a household income exceeding €60k. The comparable figure in 2001 was 39.6%

Only 6.4% of mortgages in 2005 were granted to households earning €40k or less (average industrial wage).