France, popular revolt (Yellow Vests) What's going on?


#81

@taipeir
Those demands aren’t meant to be taken seriously. (In the sense that they’d don’t expect macron to delivery. Because they know he could never do any of those things. They’re a political statement.)


#82

Your reading comprehension is not the best then. I said support the gilet not the casseurs.

elabe.fr/gilets-jaunes-5decembre/

Know the different?

In fact do you know anything about French politics and society apart from snippets you obviously miscomprehend in the anglophone media? You obviously are not familiar what the whole egalite, solidarite, fraternite concept which is the founding principal of all French political parties of the republic. Which the demands all fit within perfectly consistently given the context of French political debate. They fact that they might be mutually incompatible is irrelevant.

I suggest you keep to the parish pump cute hoorery of Irish politics. Which is obviously your level of political comprehension.

Watching French TV tonight what’s interesting is that no has a clue what is going to happen tomorrow. Even the usually strongly opinionated pundits always good for an emphatic prognostication. No one has a fucking clue what is going to happen. I dont. Lets hope for a very wet miserable day and go from there.


#83

Correct. He will be in office but not in power. Much like Hollandes last two years. And given the internal dynamics of LREM I’m not sure if Macron will be given the option of hanging on as a 5 year lame duck. He has no party base, he has no natural constituency, he has no regional base. Basically a figurehead.

Actually I think Macrons negatives are now even worse than Hollands at the end of his term. So Macron has achieved in his second year what it took Holland almost 5 years to achieve. To become the most unpopular president of the modern republic.

To say the current situation is unprecedented is an understatement. I remember when they made a huge deal when Mitterrand lost the assembly elections and there had to a cohabitation with Chirac as Prime Minister. It was as if the republic had failed. That was a minor hiccup in comparison with the events of the last few weeks. When you have well know historians in moderate middle of the road French newspapers make blunt comparisons with the lead up to 1789 you know the situation is pretty serious.


#84

Macron is still the President. Fuel tax has been dumped. The list of demands is laughable. Rioters will be suppressed.
Yellow shirts will all be home for Xmas dinner.
Locals in all those towns and villages will already be getting sick of these local layabouts disrupting their daily business. They weren’t elected by anybody and have no business blocking traffic and inspecting cars , giving their ‘permission’ …I know human nature…Same around the world.


#85

@taipeir
On va voir


#86

Why do you call them ‘layabouts’?

Fair bit of support for the layabouts
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#87

As some have been predicting, all this bodes unwell for the EU into the short to medium term. Macron has been its de facto figurehead over the past two years.

Brexit may yet prove to have been a stroke of luck.


#88

:laughing: :laughing: :laughing:
Dream on!


#89

Ha. Gotcha !
H.M.S. Conqueror just sunk you :stuck_out_tongue:


#90

amp.news.com.au/world/breaking- … 856a04e418
Nearly 600 arrests
thelocal.fr/20181208/police … st-protest


#91

Very unlikely.


#92

Layabouts ‘layabout’ dont they ?
In this case a more fitting moniker would be ‘roundabouts’.
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#93

:smiley:


#94

france24.com/en/20181208-li … cron-riots

news.sky.com/story/live-more-th … e-11574773


#95

mobile.twitter.com/Steph_Roy_/s … e-11574773


#96

Rwports suggesting that EU Parliament building attacked by yellow vests in Brussels …

thegatewaypundit.com/2018/1 … ium-video/


#97

Rabble…


#98

Maybe so.

However this is a rabble that is said to have enjoyed widespread public support to date. There are European elections scheduled for Spring 2019. We may be about to witness the emergence of a very different pan European political environment.


#99

Dont think so.


#100

Layabouts ‘layabout’ dont they ?
In this case a more fitting moniker would be ‘roundabouts’.

Quick question. Are you in France at this moment? Are you in direct daily contact with family / friends in France at the moment? Long history with the place? Various regions? Not just the '75. Which is all most anglos know. Otherwise, might I suggest you dont have any real clue what is going on there at the moment. Who is doing what. Or where. This is not a business as usual, just like all the others, rolling public demos over the decades.Which is what makes it so interesting. And so dangerous for the government. No leaders to talk to. Or co-opt.

Just talking to one of my kids who had just started a job in the CV of one the bigger metros that had serious disturbances yesterday. Very different from previous demos but so far looks like all the hate is focused on Macron and those big business that support him, rather than the state institutions per se.

The rent a thug riots organized by the CGT two years ago were full of actual “layabouts”. The cassuers tend to be “layabouts”. But a lot of the people who were doing the rioting the last two weekends in Paris tended to be in the 30’s and 40’s and very much employed. Hence the shock of the CRS the first weekend and the vary careful way the GM guys (look for the blue helmets) operated yesterday. They were not dealing with the usual hard left violent political psychos looking for a bit of safe aggro. So a bit of touch football with the gaz lacrymogene canisters, a few baton charges, a few paving slaps hurled, and both side go home satisfied at good days work. The rules of the game are different this time. Less choreographed street theater.

The material damage yesterday was more widespread and across the country that previous weekends but the forces of order kept control pretty much the whole time in the center of Paris at the symbolic points. Which was their short term goal. The fact that the government had to strip the rest of the country of police reserves to maintain order in Central Paris makes it look like a strategic defeat for Macrons legitimacy. Lots of very pissed of Mayors of cities trashed yesterday complaining on TV today about having their police taken away and sent to Paris. Thats the way its being talked about this morning. Which in the context of his reform policy means it is completely dead. So on the whole yesterday was a big win for the Gilet jaune. This dead duck, Macron, is now only fit for pate.

Most interesting poll of the day was over in Le Journal De Dimanche.

lejdd.fr/Politique/sondage-les-gilets-jaunes-a-12-aux-europeennes-en-cas-de-candidature-3816677#xtor=cs1-4

If the Gilet jaune put forward political candidates they would get 12% of the vote. Thats not the interesting bit. Its the numbers for the other parties that are deeply disturbing.

Basically Macrons LREM at 21%. Le Pen at 14%. The Greens at 13%. The GJ at 12%. With LR( a.k.a UMP) and the hard left marxists at 11% each. These number would not be repeated at election time but the fact that the PS cannot even make the top 7 is pretty startling. Looks like the French Socialist Party has lost its voters to LREM, RN, EELV and FI. So has collapsed in much the same ways as the Dutch socialist party and the German socialist party.

So it looks like the EU, either directly or indirectly, is destroying both center right and center left parties all over Europe with parties on the hard populist right and hard totalitarian left taking up the slack. Turns out the EU, unlike the EC and EEC, is completely incompatible with liberal social democracy. Looking at the poll party list again, only one of the party is pro EU. Two parties are at best luke warm and ambiguous about the EU. And three are flat out for France to leave the EU. So that’s 37% to leave, 21% to stay, and 24% who are at best unenthusiastic.

I’d say defaco (if not dejure) Frexit within five years is a good bet by this stage.

Most interesting image of the day was the Minister, Castaner, down on the Champs Elysee last night doing the rounds of the police, shaking hands, praising them for a good days work etc. What was interesting was no so much that he took the photo op but the body language of the police. Very much like with Sarkozy and the riots in the banliue 2005. The police may not like him very much as a politician but they respect him as a good boss. Someone who has their backs. I suspect we will be hearing a lot more of Castaner in the future. He seems to have all the political skills that Macron is so lacking in.
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