FT:Collapse in world trade necessitates global co-ordination

In line with my own thinking at this point. The FT article ostensibly attempts to define a depression but in doing so goes out of its way to single out Ireland as being one that will meet the most extreme definition of a depression - a 20%+ economic decline from peak to trough.

eurointelligence.com/article … cfb.0.html

That’s an opinion piece not an article.

But yes, it is of course entirely possible based on all the data we are seeing!

Yup, 20% is about where I see it going. I base this on the level of competitiveness required to get to EU averages - reduction in utility costs, reduction in wage costs etc.

See Constantin Gurdgiev’s diagram of relative labour costs in the EU:
trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2009/ … ouble.html

These will feed into a lower level of economic activity, as in the monetary value of the activity will be lower, even if actual activity levels stay the same.

Add to this the reduction due to returning the construction sector to a stable size (from 25% of GDP to 8-10% of GDP).

Of course, this doesn’t allow for a recessionary overshoot - this is just to get back to a sustainable level of GDP from which real growth is possible.

A coordinated global approach was never going to happen in that timeframe with a dead duck in the White House.