Fukushima


#241

What the Japanese Government isn’t saying about Fukushima, - Fairewinds.


#242

That guy is like a broken record. Interesting in Pandoras promise they showed a few early examples of oil companies spreading anti-nuclear propaganda, I imagine they are a bit more subtle now.

How exactly can they underestimate the amount of radiation, Japan is littered with geiger counters, littered with them at the moment they are like public clocks in the areas surrounding Fukushima.

Noble gases: are noble! They don’t react with anything in fact they just go straight up into space and even if they didn’t they don’t absorb into anything because they are inert!!

What does that mean 230 disintegrations per second, does that mean 230 atoms disintegrated per second?? Wow, call the national guard we’ve got a live one here a whole 230 atoms per second. Why the hell doesn’t he Sieverts like everyone else?? Because he is scare mongering, and then looks us in the eye and says that these are not being calculated by the IAEI, why the hell not?? Why the hell are these particular disintigrations not being calculated unlike every other possible radioactive decay, is there some special way that the commonly available geiger counters are discriminating between these atoms and all the other atoms?? Why aren’t they being measured.

Where is the source for this 10x increase in Thyroid issues aside from Arnie I’ve not heard of that anywhere else and it would be big news if true.

His little rant about Cesium only being detected is just straight up bullshit, it doesn’t matter what atom decays the end result is either an alpha, beta or gamma radiation. That is what the geiger counter measure, alpha, beta and gamma. There is no way to tell what atom it came from.

My god we’re only three minutes in I can’t watch anymore.


#243

Fukushima: 2.5 Times more Radioactive Xenon released than Chernobyl.

And the research paper. Radioactive Xenon-133 certainly didn’t go ‘straight up to space’! The massive plume was carried over Tokyo on the 15th March 2011 and was detected right around the world in the following weeks.

- US Study: Radioactive Xenon-133 in Washington was 450,000 times above detection levels after Fukushima — “Persisted for weeks”

All the more worrying because Thyroid cancers shouldn’t be emerging for another 1-2 years if Chernobyl is anything to go by.

Thyroid Cancers up in Japan, -The Japan Times.


#244

51 Sailors from USS Ronald Reagan Suffering Thyroid Cancer, Leukemia, Brain Tumors After Participating in Fukushima Nuclear Rescue Efforts -> turnerradionetwork.com/news/99-pat


#245

Yes there was a Xenon plume that spread around the world and it will tend to migrate into the upper straosphere. It doesn’t matter the fact that it disperses so rapidly is an advantage. Xenon is compeltely inert, it just floats around the atmosphere with a half life of 5.5 days and decays into stable cesium 133. It would require a huge concentration of Xenon to be dangerous, spread around the atmosphere decaying into a stable isotope is not a problem. The amount of Xenon floating around 1-2 metres above the ground will be tiny and it is inert.

EDIT - Just to put some figure on this from the chart above they measured a max of ~50Bq/1000litres, in medicine they use dosages of 1,100,000Bq/5litres (220,000,000Bq/1000litres) of Xe-133 and inhaled directly to give an effective dose of 0.42mSv which is an irrelevant dose. Yet Arnie would have us quivering under the covers.

This is explained by:

from Thyroid Cancers up in Japan, -The Japan Times.

That link doesn’t seem to be working… Is that site reliable? Very quick to be getting brain and thyroid cancer… if it’s even possible.


#246

#247

The medical use of Xenon is only done as a once off diagnostic! The gas dose is only 2millilitres, not 5 litres, and the gas in immediately extracted after a few seconds use. People don’t have to live in high concentrations for days on end (the measured concentrations were 1300Bq/m3, not 50Bq/m3). But all this is beside the point. If there were massive releases of Xenon-133 then there was also a massive release of the full spectrum of radionuclides.

What? How does that explain it? Do you imagine that Thyroid cancer goes unnoticed outside Fukushima? That’s nonsense. Anyone in Japan with lump or swelling on their neck after the disaster would have immediately sought medical advice! The rate in Fukushima is 31 times that of the rest of Japan (which is probably also rising) and that can’t be brushed off like that.

One to watch, it will be another 2-3 years that the impact starts being revealed. Shame about the media blackout in Japan.


#248

It said that some people who were being diagnosed had no signs of thyroid cancer so why would they seek treatment?

It is possible, I would expect some thyroid cancer based on the experience in Chernobyl. I doubt anyone will die however nine people did in Chernobyl and by all reports there was alot more Iodine released there. Thyroid cancer is pretty benign.
who.int/mediacentre/news/rel … 5/pr38/en/

The problem with a ‘media blackout’ is that a tiny amount of radiation is easily detected… by geiger counters, probably one every 50 metres in the area around Fukushima. Sure wasn’t Arnie telling us that 230 atoms/m3 per second were undergoing radioactive decay, the fact that we can even measure something that small is pretty impressive. Have a read of the report I linked above , this isn’t Armageddon. If you want to get really worried go to the hospital and have a talk to the Doctors there about antibotic resistance.


#249

More information on this. Sounds horrific.


#250

For some reason I’m dubious of scientific literacy of this article.

Per the US’s National Cancer Institute over the 3 years we’d expect about .463% * 3 = 1.4% of the sailors to get cancer in the period since the incident. The above numbers say that only .7% of the sailors have gotten cancer.

The question we should be asking is why only 35 sailors have cancer, we’d expect to see 70. I’d guess it’s due to their relative youth compared to the general population.

Or maybe the radioactive snow has cancer-preventing properties :wink:


#251

Or maybe your use of statistics is a load of bollocks? :wink:

The median age for being diagnosed with cancer in the US is 66. Indeed, only 2.6% of cases are found in 20-34 years olds, and given that the average age of a US sailor is 20, that would suggest that the number of sailors from the USS Reagan’s 5000 strong crew being diagnosed over the 2.75 years should probably be in the range of 5000*0.463%2.752.6%, or in other words less than 2 sailors should have been diagnosed with cancer, and probably closer to just 1 given the low average age.


#252

I’m a little dubious of the 2.6% number and mixing averages, medians and an age incidence graph like this seems a bit risky as a handful of older people could greatly skew the average rates. It also appears that the US military is atypical in terms of cancer.

The data is a bit hard to interpret (it’s corrected for age, but split out on gender and black/white, and missing data) but it looks like around 30/100k. That still only comes to about 4 expected cases.

One potential further confounding factor is increased detection and earlier detection, due to people being worried due to the incident. I doubt that can explain 10x though, so I concede the point.


#253

Dude, you never concede the point around here. Surely you can find something that supports your argument? Anything at all, it doesn’t even have to be relevant. Or just some abuse that makes me look like an idiot?

You’ve got a lot to learn about how we do things around here.


#254

Your reaction to an attempt at rational discourse makes that unnecessary :slight_smile:

Can we get back to discussing how SCD is/isn’t a bubble/boom/bust/spike/prelude to the return of Godzilla?


#255

Wow, Godzilla in the city centre… has to be good for SCD prices, surely?


#256

There are a few comments on this article from a nuclear operator on board the USS George Washington largely dispelling these claims. We don’t know the facts, it is just a bunch of people suing someone at this time. Here is a quote from him, he has left his name.


#257

50 mrem = .5 mili siverts which is about what you get from a mammogram. Assuming the linear no-threshold model is correct (this is a worst case assumption, and looking to be not the case) every sievert is about 5% additional chance of cancer. Multiplying out, that’s about .125 additional cancers.

The 2000x number doesn’t match up though (that’d be 250 cancer cases though we may not have seen them all yet, it’s only been 2.75 years), so either he’s using another model or got the math wrong.


#258

LNT model has been disproved countless times so I doubt he is using that model. Around 700 mSvs is where we start getting conclusive evidence of cancer, 1400 times the dose they received, to get 50+ cancers I would say 2000x is a good guesstimate. He is the professional however so you would have to ask him how he arrived at that figure.


#259

That interpretation makes more sense.

Has anyone verified the guy is who he says he is? He seems to have popped up in comment sections on many sites, but I can’t find any confirmation.


#260

I think he would have been outed at this stage if he wasn’t who he claims to be. Why do you think he isn’t? Nothing he has said is particularly controversial. This has all been said before in various military reports but people just don’t believe it they think there is massive cover up… Despite the fact that all these ships are stuffed with radiation detection equipment and radiation is almost impossible to ‘cover up’ as it is so easily detected unlike all the chemical and industrial spills which might have been a factor here if all these people are sick.