Game Over for the present Gov IE, they have lost control.

[jmc]

@everybody knows

@Open Window

No one seems to get my point and JMC seems to have repeated what I summed up in my last line illuminating nothing that we do not already know. There is no time left. We are no longer spectators. There is no where to hide. This is not for debate. I feel like I’ve fallen into a stupor of sanity and this another outreach program for the mildly insane.

Where you out the day the IMF/ EU came in and took over the country ? The current government and indeed the last government are like middle management . They are just doing what they are told while trying to keep the workers in line .

Unfortunately “everybody knows” is competently correct, OW. The time for effective action is long gone. Or at least effective actions given the current realities of the domestic political situation.

Ireland was always a bit of a pretend country. All the difficult problems that normal small countries have to to deal with were deal with by successive governments by either outsourced them (usually to the UK) or by completely ignoring them. The events of 2008 were dealt with in the usual way, either ignored or attempts were made to outsource them. But this time the governments bluff was called and they found themselves sliding inexorable deeper in a disastrous situation.

A bit like the mid 1950’s. The only difference is that unlike the 1950s its not a matter of just stop doing stupid things and things will quickly improve. Very fundamental changes will have to be made to the state if it is going to recover any time soon. But I see absolutely no mandate so far to make these changes. So in the short term you are looking at paralysis. Very frustrating when most of us here know that the substantive changes are just a matter of the greedy VI’s reigning in their greed. But getting those changes though will be pretty much impossible until the current complacent political situation gets a severe external shock. Too many VI’s, and all will fight till the bitter end to defend their advantage. It seems losing your banking system, being locked out of the bond market, and having to get a bail out from the IMF is still not enough to inject an air of reality into the current Irish political universe.

[dirtysquatter]

There are really only two alternatives. The first is to stick with the Troika’s program. The other is some variant of Morgan Kelly’s approach involving a crash program of deficit reduction. Both entail major risks of one sort or another. Which you prefer is likely to be fairly closely related to your personal circumstances.

For “insider” such as the government, the Troika program is by far the more appealing prospect, since it provides the best chance of maintaining the current social hierarchy.

[BlameGame]

@dirtysquatter

For “insider” such as the government, the Troika program is by far the more appealing prospect, since it provides the best chance of maintaining the current social hierarchy.

Which is the better option for someone who will always be a net recipient of transfers from the state, and currently is provided with many services entirely free by the state?

[goldmanberg]

@jmc

For “insider” such as the government, the Troika program is by far the more appealing prospect, since it provides the best chance of maintaining the current social hierarchy.

Don’t think either approach will effect the social heirarchy as MK’s approach will involve huge reductions to the welfare budget in a very short time period something which will be more keenly felt by the “outsiders”. The troika way, painful as it is, gives the space to rebalance things more gradually. It also increases the national debt and future interest repayments but as said earlier there is some scope for renegotiating that further down the road. The best thing to my mind is to stay on the road rather than fall off the cliff.

I see Blamegame has just put it more succinctly.

[Open_Window]

@jmc

@everybody knows

@Open Window

No one seems to get my point and JMC seems to have repeated what I summed up in my last line illuminating nothing that we do not already know. There is no time left. We are no longer spectators. There is no where to hide. This is not for debate. I feel like I’ve fallen into a stupor of sanity and this another outreach program for the mildly insane.

Where you out the day the IMF/ EU came in and took over the country ? The current government and indeed the last government are like middle management . They are just doing what they are told while trying to keep the workers in line .

Unfortunately “everybody knows” is competently correct, OW. The time for effective action is long gone. Or at least effective actions given the current realities of the domestic political situation.

Ireland was always a bit of a pretend country. All the difficult problems that normal small countries have to to deal with were deal with by successive governments by either outsourced them (usually to the UK) or by completely ignoring them. The events of 2008 were dealt with in the usual way, either ignored or attempts were made to outsource them. But this time the governments bluff was called and they found themselves sliding inexorable deeper in a disastrous situation.

A bit like the mid 1950’s. The only difference is that unlike the 1950s its not a matter of just stop doing stupid things and things will quickly improve. Very fundamental changes will have to be made to the state if it is going to recover any time soon. But I see absolutely no mandate so far to make these changes. So in the short term you are looking at paralysis. Very frustrating when most of us here know that the substantive changes are just a matter of the greedy VI’s reigning in their greed. But getting those changes though will be pretty much impossible until the current complacent political situation gets a severe external shock. Too many VI’s, and all will fight till the bitter end to defend their advantage. It seems losing your banking system, being locked out of the bond market, and having to get a bail out from the IMF is still not enough to inject an air of reality into the current Irish political universe.

You are assuming I’m some newbie poster, my posts go back to 2006 I’ve been watching via the net since 2003 and you’ve missed my fundamental observation.

My original post starting off this thread for the purpose of clarity

@Open Window

Out of the MSM loop but caught Noonans comments this morning on the radio. Well that didn’t take long did it! It should be completely clear to all sides that they’ve lost it. Lost whatever it was they thought they had and there is no plan. Did you hear that NO PLAN.

An observation I have been making clear from day one but seems to fly by the general discourse. All I have highlighted is that FG have now conformed to this brutal pattern. So what am I yakking about.

I’m not talking about defaults.

I am not talking about EURO crisis resolutions.

I am talking about source.

I am saying there is no plan becasue there is no VISION and to paraphrase JMC… the Vision has been “outsourced”.

It’s a Sovereign lobotomy.

[What_Goes_Up]

[yoganmahew]

@mr.agent

I’m going to play devil’s agent for a while

Advocate is the generally used term, but hey, your profession is devil’s agent I suppose

@mr.agent

a quango is merely a pejorative term for an arm of the state outside of direct control of the civil service. Often there are reasons to place a small operating group outside of a central bureaucracy. I don’t see any reason to believe that moving a small performing agency under the aegis of a Sir Humphrey will lead to efficiency gains. ‘cull of quangos’ is a newspaper cliche

Fine. Just sack the boards of them and have the organisation report to the relevant civil service department. It is the boards of quangos that I object to, not the work that they do.

@mr.agent

I see no evidence that Ireland is more cronyism ridden than any other country of similar size. And again cronyism is often a pejorative for hiring people you know as practised by everyone everywhere in the history of the world. If I need a painter I am more likely to hire a painter I know who I know to have done a good job in the past than a painter with a good CV that I don’t know. The problem arises when people hire people they know are rubbish because they are friends.

Er, yeah and they’re paying for all of these out of their own pocket so that’s fine, innit…

@mr.agent

You can declare bankruptcy in the UK. It’s not hard. rushed legislation is poor legislation. We don’t need any more moral hazard.

Well, they are considering bits of legislation. Best practice as espoused by FG themselves was to publish heads of legislation as soon as possible and allow debate to start before the detail is finalised. Instead we are getting the ususal same-ole imposed and not better for being thought of for a long time legislation. What are we vogons?

@mr.agent

they’ve just introduced a CSO house price index and it looks OK to me. I’m delighted to see volume figures and the split of mortgage vs cash purchase.

That’s because you are in Dublin. For the rest of the country it’s bollocks.

@mr.agent

Varadkar was wrong to speak the truth as he saw it. I wouldn’t tell you I thought your child was ugly even if it was the truth, would I? Varadkar was acting like a footballer who tells the other players that all is lost half way through the game. Cabinet ministers should not idly predict defaults or devaluations.

Again, the FG promised honesty even if it hurt. We are talking about failure to deliver on promises, not what is a sensible promise to make.

@mr.agent

I have to agree on this and in fact very little legislation of any kind seems to be worked on since the new lot came in. When you see the week’s dail agenda and it’s all: have a chat about the queen, have a chat about the IMF, have a chat about raising the minimum wage, and no legislative items, it’s disappointing.

FoI is something that really exercises me. I don’t know why as lots of good stuff comes out still, but then you see some of the stuff in wikileaks and you know there is so much more.

@mr.agent

NAMA can’t do a register of debtors for simple legal reasons. I think they will do a register of what’s with their receivers & liquidators.

Yes they can. If they can’t, legislation can be provided to make it so. They don’t have to publish anyone who is not current on their payments, but anyone who is not is effectively in receivership and that would be published anyway.

@mr.agent

Lastly you are silly to be disappointed with FG vs FF when they have no policy or character differences. What is the difference between say Dick Roche and Phil Hogan? Slightly different face but same goals and values. know whorrameeun?

For sure there are some awful ole gombeens in FG. That doesn’t mean that we should let them away with failings that are within their power to do something about. Even if all they do is express frustration themselves, at least they will be living up to their promise to be open about what’s going on.

I am in agreement with you that the best policy now for Ireland is to do what the troika tells us. Let the troika set the strategy, let them set the policy details and give them very frequent updates. Work with them and ask them for direction at every hiccup along 5the way so that it becomes more and more their problem. We already have the ECB by the balls with their 160bn in our banks. Nobody’s going anywhere.

It’s depressing, it’s a lost decade, but that seems to be about the size of it.

[Open_Window]

@london_irish

@jmc

@Open Window

Out of the MSM loop but caught Noonans comments this morning on the radio. Well that didn’t take long did it! It should be completely clear to all sides that they’ve lost it. Lost whatever it was they thought they had and there is no plan. Did you heard that NO PLAN.

I think we are witnessing the political equivalent of Moores Law in action over the last 4 years.

This “interest on the Bailout vs the attack on our Corpo Tax” must be the greatest strawman perpetrated on the people since the “Guarantee”.

At this point I would say its time to start really considering the worst worst case scenario or out of the blue event that spins us to another out of control point. You will have to dispense all you thought you knew to move to the next phase.

The past is certainly not the future. Those in power are already lost to it.

So which part of “the country is bankrupt” do you still not understand? When your country is bankrupt there can be no plan until after the creditors have finished with you. The last time Ireland had any wriggle room was early 2009. If the the Greens had pulled the plug on the Coalition back then there might have been some hope of retaining a smidgen of control. Its way too late now .

The plan since mid 2009 was not to be first to get a bailout. They were second. The plan since then has been not to be the first to be forced to default. Looks like Greece is first up. With Ireland right behind it. When a country is as bankrupt as Ireland is that is about as far as its control over its destiny goes.

After the first few weeks, when the current Government finally found out just how dire the real situation was (those must have been some very interesting DoF, DoFA ministerial briefings), the game plan was little more to keep the status quo for the short term. Not to trigger any social disruption until the default / currency crisis happened and only push through the reforms/ cuts in the upheaval and aftermath.

Unlike a lot of people here, elected politicians in Ireland have a finely honed sense of just how much pain the electorate are willing to take at any given moment. And what the current government are acutely aware of is that the last election was not a rejection of coot hoor politics and a mandate for root and branch reform, but little more than a punishment of FF for ruining the spend, spend, spend bubble party. Remember, if it had not been for bad constituency candidate management, FF would have won at least 30 seats in the last election. So if an election was held in the morning, and even if the voting patterns remained exactly the same as the recent election, FF would get 30/35 seats and would be part of the next coalition government. The lesson of many decades of South American populist politics is that electorates can remain utterly irresponsible and delusional far far longer than a country can remain solvent.

So the current government dont have a mandate to do anything except manage the default debacle as best they can. If the push through the deep cuts now they just increase social instability and increase the probability of what they are trying most to avoid, to be first to default. So those hoping for some kind of responsible government are going to have to wait until after the resolution of the bigger crisis - the disintegration of the current euro zone regime. Until the euro crisis resolves itself one way or another, which is way beyond the remit of the Irish government, everyone is just along for the ride.

+1.

There is a plan, of sorts, that FG are following - and it’s simply not to be first on anything; default, new currency, reforms, etc. Let the troika cut their teeth on Greece first, then hope they come to Ireland more chastened and flexible after that initial experience. Let some other country be the template.

Besides, people aren’t ready for change unless it’s going to be forced down their throat. I’m been visiting for the last 3 weeks, and while signs of the recession are everywhere, there’s so much that hasn’t had to change for people. I don’t get a sense of urgency or immediate emergency. The cuts have been painful - but not get-out-on-the-greek-streets painful. I see plenty of 2011 reg cars - more than I expected. And my parents, and their friends, have been mostly isolated from any direct impacts, bar a small cut in pay that doesn’t affect my mums final salary pension, if she retires before Jan 2012. My dad is already retired. The house is long paid down. They have no sense of immediate danger - they think they’ll have time to react to what they only see as a “possible” default scenario.
And this is repeated when I speak with anyone I know here.

Nice one lads. Nice one. We’ve hit the Consensus Jackpot! Yippee! The Plan is no Plan whooowowo!! Go Plan “no Plan”!

What a waste of a thread.

[yoganmahew]

@Open Window

Nice one lads. Nice one. We’ve hit the Consensus Jackpot! Yippee! The Plan is no Plan whooowowo!! Go Plan “no Plan”!

What a waste of a thread.

Hey, the six-thousand or so members of the 'pin are not the problem. It is the two million other people who want to be back in 2006 or 2005 at the earliest. While there might be movement about all sorts of other things, denial is still rampant about the state of the economy and particularly government finances.

[Open_Window]

@yoganmahew

@Open Window

Nice one lads. Nice one. We’ve hit the Consensus Jackpot! Yippee! The Plan is no Plan whooowowo!! Go Plan “no Plan”!

What a waste of a thread.

Hey, the six-thousand or so members of the 'pin are not the problem. It is the two million other people who want to be back in 2006 or 2005 at the earliest. While there might be movement about all sorts of other things, denial is still rampant about the state of the economy and particularly government finances.

None of this solves our Visionary deficit.

[Scrambler]

@robd

@Larry

Leave the Euro? Why? So that we can avoid giving ourselves pay cuts and a reduction in our collective standard of living? And whither our €-denominated debt? Whither imported inflation the instant our Punt Nua tanks? Whither our EU membership? Whither Irish pension funds?

OK. Some basic economics 101 lessons. There are two ways to reduce costs and make your country more competitive and hence generate growth. One, devalue currency. Two, run high unemployment rates. Our government have blinded chosen the second. This is probably going to be looked on as one of the biggest economic catastrophes in history. It’s devastated the lives of most of a generation. > 15% overall unemployment with even larger numbers of male and under 30’s. And yes despite what people generally think the government is in control of unemployment rates, they new 100% what the deal is with not devaluing currency by leaving Euro.

We’re going to end up having to leave the Euro in 18 months anyway as we won’t be capable of securing a 2nd bail out for our own sake and we’ll be forced to default. Debts won’t be denominated in Euro’s due to default. Bank debt will be defaulted too. Not necessary a total default but a haircut and transfer to New Punt. Will be legislated for in some way.

It’s inevitable. Prolonging it is grossly unfair on the masses of unemployed, those having to emigrate and those losing their homes as a result of not being able to pay mortgage. And most others are barely coping due to monstrous decrease in take home pay and increasing interest rates. The situation is only going to get worse from here with current non plan.

It’s ultra clear at this stage that Fine Gael do not have a plan. They’re fronting the same bunch of decision makers/speech writers as last government. They’re messing round the edges with stuff that doesn’t matter and blundering with the big stuff that does. They’re increasing taxes/levies/charges rather than cutting costs.

This is interesting. I have thought for ages that leaving the Euro is the obvious thing for us to do, the sane thing, the way to break free of the loan sharks to some extent and regain control. This is put into words here! What is the problem with leaving the Euro though? Can we not get out of it and leave the other member states peacefully earning their own Euros, enjoying that currency, and we get our own one on course? Or do we automatically annihilate the whole Union as we hurtle towards out low value currency? Why are all government people totally terrified of the re emerging Punt Nua? Surely then if we get our money into shape as a New Punt, we can do like Iceland and plummet into recession, devalue, get thru it, then genuinely get ourselves on track and actually turn that famous corner Brian L kept alluding to. That’s my stance on this anyway!

[Scrambler]

@yoganmahew

@Open Window

Nice one lads. Nice one. We’ve hit the Consensus Jackpot! Yippee! The Plan is no Plan whooowowo!! Go Plan “no Plan”!

What a waste of a thread.

Hey, the six-thousand or so members of the 'pin are not the problem. It is the two million other people who want to be back in 2006 or 2005 at the earliest. While there might be movement about all sorts of other things, denial is still rampant about the state of the economy and particularly government finances.

It sure was fun in 2005 and 2006 though, wasn’t it? All those interesting fake tans, pink champagne, shopping trips to NYC, the average Irish child having visited Disneyland 5 times, and your plumber’s housekeeper having 11 investment properties in Beijing… Those really were the days

[Open_Window]

@yoganmahew

+2 Larry.

I’ll point again to Kevin O’Rourke’s interview at INET: viewtopic.php?f=19&t=38709

The best way to fix a bubble is to not have one. Otherwise there are only nasty choices. At the moment, the best choice available is to stick with the plan, however much one might like to do something else about it.

Have I not been saying this from day one or is it a quest to create my own mythology?

[Seanfhonduir]

@Larry

@FirstBass

Fine Gael, running in the last election against the worst, WORST, government in Irish history, instead of having a coherent plan to try and turn things around…

What might that plan have looked like?

Unilateral default? If so, can you - or anyone - say with certainty that that’s a better plan than the structured default mechanism ourselves and Greece are currently (clearly) involved in?

1-year deficit reduction? If so, can it be demonstrated that that’s an immeasurably better option than doing it over 5 years?

A better jobs initiative? Just lol, because no government can create jobs top-down like this, at least not without spending copious money we don’t have on building stuff, which will land us right back where we are in a few years anyway with 200,000 re-unemployed brickies.

Leave the Euro? Why? So that we can avoid giving ourselves pay cuts and a reduction in our collective standard of living? And whither our €-denominated debt? Whither imported inflation the instant our Punt Nua tanks? Whither our EU membership? Whither Irish pension funds?

And what if some of the above, or similarly radical, measures precipitated a EU/EZ-wide banking or sovereign crisis? Tough shit? Not our problem? Let them swing? Again, is anyone arguing that with certainty we can be so blasé about such high stakes?

…

One might argue that any or all of those *could *be tried (for example, I wouldn’t mind giving the 1-year deficit reduction thing a go)…but can anyone honestly say that it is abundantly obvious that these are better options? No. All of them are a roll of the dice. I don’t think it’s realistic or honest to argue otherwise.

Japan is proof beyond all doubt that unilateral default is by far the best way out.
After default the plan should of been to

Eliminate NAMA - allow firesales & rents to come down
Reform Bankruptcy and make it a hell of alot easier
Eliminate Labour Court JLC rates
Reduce the minimum wage
Eliminate the deficit
Reduce the Dole
Reduce public sector pay
Reform the insurance industry
Close Local Authorities and make one national authority or provincial authorities with ones for the cities if necessary and for Gods sake reduce rates businesses pay!!!

Open up the 2 Uranium mines in Donegal that Eamonn Ryan made illegal & build a nuclear power plant - even build it in the UK and feed it here via an interconnector - we need cheap electricity.

There I have addressed all the reasons businesses quote for leaving Ireland for Eastern Europe while making conditions better for businesses to thrive and for employment to grow. Living costs will come down and those in negative equity canhave a second chance instead of continuing for 35 - 40 years paying out money on jumbo mortgages when it could be better spent in the real economy.

Its FACT that we would be better off doing this. Japan owed the govt debt bonds to its own people, Japan had its own currency, Japan is an economic powerhouse yet Japan was screwed for 20 years because they refused to bite the bullet.

We are doing the very same except we are in a much worse position

@Open Window

There is no vision at the top so be afraid be very afraid. Some say it will be 20 years creeping death. I can tell you now it will be much faster followed by 30 years of living death and some more.

+1

[Seanfhonduir]

@yoganmahew

We not only are where we are, but we are going on the path that we have been set on. There isn’t just a** lack of political will to do anything different, there’s a lack of popular will** too.

and those are the reasons Ireland will be in such a terrible state economically for a long time.

[dirtysquatter]

@goldmanberg

@jmc

For “insider” such as the government, the Troika program is by far the more appealing prospect, since it provides the best chance of maintaining the current social hierarchy.

Don’t think either approach will effect the social heirarchy as MK’s approach will involve huge reductions to the welfare budget in a very short time period something which will be more keenly felt by the “outsiders”. The troika way, painful as it is, gives the space to rebalance things more gradually. It also increases the national debt and future interest repayments but as said earlier there is some scope for renegotiating that further down the road. The best thing to my mind is to stay on the road rather than fall off the cliff.

I see Blamegame has just put it more succinctly.

BlameGame is obviously referring to Irish career politicians in that post.

The Morgan Kelly approach definitely carries the potential for social upheaval IMO. An external default simultaneous with an 30% decrease in government spending internally would inevitably a) massively reduce the ability to make payments to whatever group from the public purse and b) ( as a direct result ) greatly increase the likelihood of social unrest.

Those who are financially dependent on the state,including but not limited to the politicians, the public service and those dependent on welfare are fairly clearly best served by the Troika approach. The “outsiders”, because it keeps the money flowing (for now at least) and the "insiders"because not only does it keep their own cheques coming, it also preserves their privileged position.

Many Irish group’s self-perceived interests are well aligned behind the Troika. The fact that one of these groups is also the one that makes the decisions makes the outcome inevitable.

Personally I think Kelly’s approach would be a massive gamble. I’m not convinced. however, that the Troika program is necessarily going to deliver a better result. As Open Window says…it’s not really a proper plan…more of a pretense at one that on examination is not at all convincing. Plainly put, as presently constituted, it has no chance whatsoever of working.

[mr_anderson]

@yoganmahew

While there might be movement about all sorts of other things, denial is still rampant about the state of the economy and particularly government finances.

Thats because one feeds off the other.
The deficit prevents reality from hitting.
It keeps wages and spending at inappropriate high and unsustainable levels.

If the budget was balanced tomorrow, government spending would have to slashed by about a third - thats the reality !

It is only when we can no longer borrow sufficient levels that the real cuts will be forced upon us.
No government has the balls to do it beforehand.

We’re fucked !

p.s. a friend of mine asked me where I saw house prices going.
I simply told her that at this point, house prices were irrelevant.
The situation has moved far beyond that now.

[Seanfhonduir]

@everybody knows

Where you out the day the IMF/ EU came in and took over the country ? .

They are only in charge as long as we ask for money from them

[dame]

Either we continue as we are, getting nowhere except deeper in debt, or we break free and take the consequences that flow from that. I’m going to be poorer either way but at least with the second route I have some self-respect and a chance to rebuild. I’m for revolution.

[Seanfhonduir]

@Braighni

@yoganmahew

@Braighni

If we weren’t already paying off bank bondholders then the market gods would lend to us.

Do people on here have a problem with time travel? I do. It doesn’t exist. Tell it to the last government two years ago.
Time travel would be cool.

So now the sovereign owes money to everyone. We don’t have it.
Say sorry but there are people dying here. Your buddies got bailed out but we’re drawing the line.
We become the first country with a clean slate. Who wants in?

(So maybe we become the first dominoe to cause the collapse of capitalism, we can always go back in time and do it differently.)

actually it would be the start of real capitalism in Europe - bailing people out is cronyism and is not capitalism