GE16 - Government Formation Watch


#185

I’ve been watching the phoney war on Government formation for quite the while and waiting…for this.

rte.ie/news/2016/0421/783238 … o-weekend/

If FG do not do a deal on Irish Water then we are into a May election and a slight but important change of political arithmetic thereafter. FF and FG will likely reverse positions is all, FF with north of 50 seats and FG likely a netch south of that number ( or around level with FF) . The difference will be that FG will have already had a chance to form a government and failed…so the baton must be passed over for a while at least. Unless there are 5 clear seats between the parties and FG gain a seat or two in the next election as well…then FF will get a first shot at forming a government after an election.

FG will promptly dump Enda (he’ll walk anyway I’d say) and the new FG leader will be asked to support an FF minority government and do a deal on…Irish Water. :slight_smile:

I am declaring an end to the phoney war, one way or another, in April. Either we have a new government by the end of next week or we are into a May election.

The Shinners and Anti Everythings will do as well as before…all to no avail. Most indos will be returned as are there now. Labour no better really, possibly worse.


#186

if the FG leader is Vardakhar or Coveney they’ll end up with more TDs not less. Kenny is ballot box toxic outside of his own constituency.


#187

You are probably right Dipole but FG will go into a snap election in May with either Enda or nobody officially in charge…not enough time. Enda will probably not canvass widely if he has any sense and the party can see who steps up (or not) before they elect a new leader. Not enough time to replace Enda as such IMO.

Nobody in charge augurs not too well for FG…best stick to Enda but hide him as much as possible and let him into 7 or 10 way debates only, none of your small debating panels now, and it nullifies Martin too. :smiley:


#188

Spin, yay or nay?
Indo - Talks between Kenny and Martin collapse, FG and FF gear up for election
A senior FG official said the talks were “going nowhere” and warned that an election could be called this week. “The party is now officially on an election footing and our executive council has been told to prepare for a general election,” another senior FG source said.
A senior FF source said the party was “prepared to go to the country” on the water charges issue.


#189

New TD Zappone gets her face in the trough.

thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/new … 2016_04_23

I used Google maps to calculate Brittas - Leinster House and was offered 3 routes by R and N road and all UNDER 25km. These are the only passable roads in winter, they won’t GRIT L roads will they??? :frowning:


#190

FF have FG over a barrel. Either FG folds on the IW issue or we have another election where FF will probably come out ahead. FG will then be forced to compromise on IW or be seen as forcing yet another election which would see them wiped out. Nobody in FG wants to go into another election with Enda at the helm either.


#191

Would it improve their chances if FG had an all-day meeting, deposed Kenny, elected a new leader and then announced another general election ?
Is Kenny FG’s biggest problem ?


#192

Absolutely. Kenny’s desperation to become Taoiseach has lead him to make some really stupid decisions - even more stupid by the high barrier of stupidity he has set - in the last few weeks. His manifest incompetence has been slightly amusing to watch. Fianna Fail have bested him on Irish Water where no matter what he does he has lost. The Ides of March and April have passed but the Ides of May is coming up in three weeks. Maybe his spineless colleagues could take the opportunity to involuntarily retire the twat to his set of state pensions to write his memoirs in crayon.


#193

Never said better.


#194

FG need an up front commitment from FF saying how long FF will support them in govt. Both sides recognise this is necessary.

FG need to leave the door open to water charges being implemented within that period.
For FF it is absolutely vital that this possibility is ruled out.

The media seem to think this is a mere detail. It is anything but.

FF have had it their own way since the election. The last remaining threat is from SF and Alphabet Soup . Those two will propose endless motions in the new Dail looking for the abolition of water charges.
If the FG minority govt comes in to being with the possibility of the dail being able at some pont in its life to decide about water charges then those motions will carry weight.
If it is decided in advance that the 32 Dail will not be in a position to decide then those motions just look like theatre.

So FF want to make sure the dail cant make such a decision. They want it to be acknowledged in advance that the review procedures will take as long as the guaranteed life of the new dail.

On the other hand if FG can keep the idea of abolition as a live issue in the new dail they will be able to hug FF close as SF and the Alphabets lash them over it. FF will be forced to support FG and vote against the abolition of charges. It won’t damage FG as much because their supporters are pro water charges. Given how FF have positioned themselves the damage to them would be significant. For FG it’s the political equivalent of drawing the enemy close and calling in a strike on your own position.
Can FG get such a deal - one in which the suspension may be lifted before the guarantee of support runs out? I don’t see what cards they have left. I don’t see why they have already conceded on the suspension of charges. If Kenny wasn’t who he is he might have been able to threaten to walk away and sound credible at the same time.

Great stuff

PS When is Gerry’s next expected departure date?


#195

Can’t be done. They changed the rules recently and a leadership change takes six weeks now.


#196

I’m fairly sure no one knows how long it would take.
There’s no required length of time for the election process and they’ve never had an election under these rules.
They changed the rules after Kenny was elected and before the Bruton attempted putsch.
The problem is the election will be carried out using an electoral college system in which the general membership (30,000 at last estimate) count for 25%.
How long an election would take depends on how serious they are about consulting those ordinary members. Do they bother with canvassing. Do they invite them all to Dublin for a convention.
In an emergency and with an agreed candidate they could probably get it done in a fortnight if they wanted.


#197

Fair enough. I heard 6 weeks but that may not be correct.


#198

Noonan - not averse to a bit of spin, it must be said -is saying a deal may not be possible.


#199

The next election is not worth much either. This is the failure of the current State now - live… the vacuum of of Vision will be filled with the noise of Chaos.


#200

The talks on forming a government have now devolved in to a standoff between Fine Gael and Enda Kenny. Who’s going to blink first?

The FG negotiating team have insisted that the offer of a suspension of water charges was for six to nine months. FF have claimed it was for a few years. The discrepancy was cleared up today when it emerged that, while the negotiating team are offering the first, Kenny in private communications with Martin is offering the second. Kenny and his team have two different agendas.

You can’t negotiate with a group that doesn’t know what it wants itself.

What Kenny is doing doesn’t make sense on his own terms. He wants to be taoiseach for a few weeks to ensure his legacy. Look at the damage he’s doing to himself trying to get there. Compare his reputation now to what it was at the start of the election campaign. He has pissed off FF, then the Independents and now his own party. You think it can’t get any worse, the damage is done, just leave him there until he can be replaced, but that would be to underestimate Kenny’s ability to eff things up further.

If it was pick up football FF would be giving players to the other side just to make a match of it.

I think FG should bundle Kenny in to the back of a car and take him to a safe house until this is over.
Or the political equivalent - get Kenny to play the statesman and say that unfortunately some have sought to personalise the important job of building a government and, while recognising how reprehensible that is, if I have become a bar to progress in the minds of some then I am willing to remove myself from the negotiations etc etc


#201

I think you’ve missed something really golden and by doing so revealed something else.

What you are witnessing are the power-plays revealed, the ones always within the last two governments. This is how they work or should I say this is how they malfunction. They are openly in full view perfectly expressing in full acerbic ritual, the truth of a system that will not ever work, the way you misunderstood it too.

Here we see a glimpse but for a moment the brutal ability of inability that got them all this far with the various political and economic wrecks smouldering in their collective political wakes, that which they are fighting over to re-aniamte, as if these skeletons were some priceless perfection so invaluable to our very human existence.

Lumping all the blame on the figurehead Kenny, only serves to pull back the cloak over the rest so culpable past, present and some who clamour so fiercely for, future! What a prospect you are witnessing.

One with no vision but blind relentless survival at all costs.

Kenny’s survival instinct is no different than that of the entire political-maelstrom.

Why get caught up in the soap opera (reductionism) of the failed says I?


#202

Do you want to be understood?

Could you be more considerate of those of us unable or unwilling to decode your messages and just use plain terms?


#203

I preferred this


#204

Why, why have faith in jokers?