GE16 - Government Formation Watch


#145

Totally agree that’s what it is, but I think the perception of who didn’t play ball would be significant in another 2016 election.


#146

What do FF actually want to happen? MM’s speech yesterday was all about how great minority governments are - he even had an underling whip up a few stats on how great minorities have fared in other European countries. Is it an FG minority answerable to FF he’s angling for? Or is he hoping to be Taoiseach for a few months until FG regroups in opposition and returns with a new leader?

FG’s plan of trying to appear honourable etc. is probably the best hand they have. But anyone who read the Irish Times focus group before the election would know that the electorate are not great at retaining this kind of minor detail. Many of them couldn’t distinguish between the parties or tell the facilitator which party various TDs were in. They had a general impression of each party and then built up a post-hoc justification e.g. they don’t like Joan Burton/Labour so they blamed her for things she didn’t even do.

Maybe FG can hope to give the general impression that they are not playing games while FF are self-regarding or overly strategic etc. Not a bad game to play…


#147


#148

Fair play to FG for stepping up and making a game of it. The offer of a grand coalition was always their only real move but they seem to have caught FF off balance if only for a few hours.

Because it’s a non runner of a proposition all FF have to do is ignore it and direct attention elsewhere just like they did in the few days after the election.

“FG have asked for the support of ourslves and independents in government. If we have to support them that is what we will do but we will be doing it from opposition. Minority govt is the only feasible option for our supporters and good for independents and the dail…”

This is about as pointless as commenting on McIlroy and Speith’s club selection this weekend. Let’s just sit back and enjoy a masterclass.


#149

Listening to some of the FF heads you’d swear they all expecting to only ever be in government as the ruling party. The old arrogance never went away, good move by FG to call them out.


#150

Indeed.
And the cheek of them to talk about “having a mandate” - when they have roughly a quarter of available seats.
Their latest ploy seems to be accusing FG of “spinning incessantly”, which is rich, to say the least of it.

Despicable bunch of no-marks.


#151

There was something hugely unprecedented about the Enda Kenny/Micheal Martin meeting yesterday…

A NOTETAKER WAS PRESENT :open_mouth:


#152

FF have said no.


#153

OK. Enda goes to the President and asks for re-election, steps down, Leo elected leader and FG pick up maybe a dozen seats next time round. That would be how toxic I think Enda is to FG electability.


#154

I think Simon would be a better choice, but some more steel is required, if I was advising FG, I would have a much more negative campaign v FF. SF are not going to pick up 20 more seats.


#155

Do you mean they should have been more negative during the election campaign or that they should be tougher on them now?


#156

They should have been way more negative and personal during the election.

Micky Martin was in the cabinet during during the bubble. You would think that FG forgot as well as half the country.


#157

I take an intense interest in politics but have barely tuned in over the last few weeks.

It’s been clear to me for a year that the election would produce an arrangement that would inevitably involve FF and FG in some form (see GE thread on this).

Media commentary is typically shallow “who-texted-who-first” and apart from Irish Water has ignored the policy stuff as usual.

@2pack, I cannot for the life of me see why FF or FG would take a chunk of independents on board and I don’t think it will happen.


#158

To sell it to the grassroots
“It’s not an FG/FF coalition Mickey-Joe, it’s a rainbow collective”


#159

Is there some bit of “FF says no” that’s unclear?:
rte.ie/news/2016/0407/780070 … ail-talks/


#160

“so it’s like a barrel at the end of a drainpipe?”
“That’s it Festy, a catch-all”.


#161

Is there some part of ‘arrangement…of some form’ that you don’t understand?


#162

If Mehole meant that the best interests of the Irish people are rarely (if ever) served by FF in government, I’d have to agree with him.

How they intend to spin not forming a government is a different matter.


#163

That’s not an “arrangement”, that’s sitting in the long grass until a convenient time for a vote of no confidence.


#164

What part of FF Chief Whip whipping his TDs into voting positively on budget measures proposed by an all-FG cabinet would not represent an ‘arrangement’?

(Granted it would not be particularly stable)