GE16 - Government Formation Watch


#165

As I say, it’s only until it was convenient not to - some damaging event for the FG government would precipitate an election. A coalition, OTOH, has collective responsibility.


#166

I see you’re agreeing with me so :smiley:


#167

:smiley:


#168

Yea, but who? Kenny or Martin and what was the denomination and quantity? :neutral_face:


#169

Interestingly the Dail website is quite transparent as to salaries etc.

oireachtas.ie/parliament/tds … llowances/

Silent as to pensions, therein lies the incentive

irishtimes.com/news/pension- … e-1.549241

thejournal.ie/readme/column- … 0-Mar2013/


#170

Seems odd that Paddy Power have a FF minority govt at 14/1 *
They have FG minority govt at 4/9.
At this stage is the FF option really 30 times more unlikely?

FG minority is by far the most likely outcome.
FF would prefer it.
For it not to happen would require FG to really annoy the Independents.
You’d need unrealistic offers, strokes, bad faith negotiation, an untrustworthy unpopular leader, etc. etc.

FG need 7 independents to form a minority govt.
FF only need 4 more.

*Govt in jan 2017
P.S. So only a fortnight now until Gerry resigns. Apparently.


#171

I don’t understand the attempt to portray FFs withdrawal from talks as a gamble
I think they are pulling everyone’s strings

FF entered talks with FG to see what a workable version of minority govt would look like.
If FF had got the promise of FG support and had a workable arrangement in place they would have tried to form a minority govt themseleves and would probably have been able to. (In my opinion a FF minority govt would also have been the best outcome as far as FG was concerned, but it’s not what they and Enda in particular wanted.)

Now that it has been made clear to everyone that there is no offer forthcoming of FG support FF want to withdraw from the talks. But rather than take the blame for this they have managed to frame today’s vote in a way that makes it look like a decision by the Independents.

A week ago FG had managed to put grand coalition center stage. FF moved the discussion to minority govt and have now removed the FF option, leaving FG holding the parcel.

But it’s worse than that for FG. By this afternoon the public consensus and the mindset of the dail will have (with FF’s encouragement) arrived at the idea that a FG minority govt is the only realistic option.
However the workable arrangement for minority govt was never arrived at. Those talks have ended. FF can now say they are only willing to support FG on a piecemeal basis. If FG don’t want to sign up for this nightmare they will be the ones deciding to buck what the consensus says should happen and they will be responsible for the General Election that results.

Update
Nice work by the Independents. Now FG either have to pledge to support a FF minority or else will be responsible for a general election.
FF minority govt is at 9/1 and still good value.


#172

So another election is just a month or two away ?


#173

Michael O’Leary: Stop voting for lunatics


#174

That won’t work. I or anyone could give 1000 valid reasons not to vote for candidate X but some will vote for them to spite you.


#175

I can hear the knifes sharpening for Enda within FG. Though I can’t for the life of me figure out why FF are going up and FG down given the way FF have carried on the past few weeks

Fianna Fáil overtakes Fine Gael in latest opinion poll
rte.ie/news/2016/0416/782316 … oll-times/


#176

One in four backing FF? XX

What’s the plan for replacing Enda? I have a sense that he’d like to be re-elected Taoiseach and after that they’ll just wait a barely decent period - maybe end of the year - and off he’ll go.

Presuming the plan is for the new government to last 2.5 years or three budgets, they shouldn’t hang around too long. What if they only last one budget? FG could wind up with a snap election in November where they either let Enda lead them into an electoral meltdown or rush a leadership contest when they should be concentrating on a campaign.


#177

Still though, with going on 8 weeks since the election, the important thing is:

  • they are all still getting well-paid
  • the Dail bar is churning out the pints BD

And in the end, isn’t that really the important bit?
That your work-place bar is doing tremendous business?
:-GC

This.
Is.
Ireland.


#178

FYP. Recent elections suggest a further bounce of anything from 2-4%

FF could get 28/29% on a good day with those numbers :open_mouth:


#179

Irish Times reckons a deal is getting closer after they found a fudge of just the right density to clog the pipes of those piping up over Irish Water.

If the deal is sealed, the State will take over Irish Water, most people will get generous allowances and it will come back onto the State balance sheet “which means there will be less money available in budgets over the next three years for infrastructural projects and improvements to services”.

I don’t think FG had much choice but to bottle this one, so to speak, given that FF and most of the Dail campaigned against Irish Water. But I hope they have the nerve to remind the public and their representatives that this has consequences. When the Opposition is demanding more money for social services and housing, and the Healy-Raes want a bridge to nowhere in their back yard, or the SocDems want higher salaries for public sector workers, or FF want pensions hikes and USC cuts for Middle Ireland…they need to realise that they can’t have everything.

If we really are to be treated to ‘a new way of doing politics’ everyone is going to have to grow up and do the hard sums.


#180

Irish Water never left the states balance sheet and water infrastructure is still an infrastructural project.


#181

Nor would it in the next decade based on the current model.

This compromise for a new model could work well for conservation.

Problem with original plan was nobody understood if the allowance was generous enough. And muddied waters about extra allowances for kids and medical conditions. They’d need a good campaign to get the message across.


#182

The SocDems specifically campaigned on lowering the cost of living rather than giving in to upward wage pressure.

On the general subject, this seemed like the obvious way to do things from the start. Water charges are an awful way of raising revenue, but a great way to encourage conservation.


#183

Alright I was a bit harsh on the SocDems. I thought Donnelly was the best by far in the debates but remain slightly perturbed by his ‘ask the Gardai, teachers and nurses how to fix crime, education and health’ idea - mostly because I’d expect Solution #1 will be ‘raise our wages and then we’ll see’.

Surely the original incarnation of Irish Water had more of a ‘polluter/user pays’ ethos than this ‘hardly anyone pays unless they leave the taps on all night’ model?


#184

A taste of things to come: SF beating up FF for their ‘ultimate betrayal’ of the Irish people etc. etc.

Clear strategy to kick the newly-neutered FF so they can cast themselves as the ‘real opposition’. It’ll be fairly competitive on the opposition benches and if FF suffer in the polls they’ll find some excuse to pull the plug. FG better initiate an orderly transition of power from Enda to whoever by September.