#GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted


#1

So…


#2

Leo has to be seen to support his Minister. Frances Fitzgerald will have to come over all patriotic and do the honorable thing on Sunday evening.
I’m not sure why SF are so eager to get an election going, can’t see them increasing their share.


#3

My understanding is that the Fianna Fail confidence motion has to be made by 11am or they miss the boat and the SF motion takes over.

The obvious solution is that Frances Fitzgerald resigns. That makes sense to everyone except Fine Gael. With Brexit meetings coming up it seems extraordinary to hold a gun to the country’s head over an incompetent Tanaiste.

If Varadkar calls Fianna Fail’s bluff and they back down with some kind of sop about an inquiry then it’s a major victory for Varadkar. Interesting to see what happens either way.


#4

As per the other thread:

There were nearly 30 first-time TDs elected in 2016 among the supporters of the government.

All of them would be very nervous at facing re-election particularly because their pension rights only kick in after two years.

Elections are really expensive. Parties cannot raise large amounts of funds anymore and a campaign would flatten most of them.

I have always maintained and continue to do so that there will be no election until 2019 at the earliest.

This is just political journalists talking up a crisis because it makes them look like they’re doing something useful.


#5

An election is a terrible idea at a terrible time. A new batch of ministers won’t help Brexit, nor homelessness, hospitals or anything else.
FG should have the election immediately to be sure FF get the blame for ruining Christmas over something most people don’t care about/understand.


#6

Because that is what they do. It is all they know. Perhaps they see an opportunity in the chaos of Brexit, but chances are they are just stirring trouble for the sake of it.


#7

Remember that time Michael Martin didn’t quite get legal advice (or so he said, even though it was in his office and people said it had been passed to him and it was quite important) on the legality of nursing home fees? He rode it out and threw the Sec Gen of the Dept of Health under the bus (well, shuffled him off to the Higher Education Authority will pay and pension).

And then there was the time Enda Kenny kinda made up a meeting and was all a bit confused, sparking his resignation - yet FF still had ‘confidence’. Now this issue, at this time seem like a totally bonkers reason to pull the plug. I heard FF and SF on Prime Time trying to take the issue back to how McCabe had been wronged and that’s why…we’re having an election, or something.

Good luck on the door steps with that one.

Now that Varadkar has dug his heels in, it’s hard to see how Frannie Fitz quitting could even fix things. Varadkar would lose face and relations with FF are damaged beyond repair - until one needs the other after the next election - in the national interest :slight_smile:


#8

Yeah, I just don’t get it. Aside from the issue itself which seems really quite minor, expressing no confidence in a someone when they’ve left the job is strange.

There are plenty of better things to express no confidence in, like the dismal state of the health service (it can’t be long before the winter ED overcrowding kicks in), or housing policy, or or or.


#9

FF have lodged the no confidence motion. Either frances goes by Sunday night or it’s election time.
My money is on her going


#10

None of the parties can afford a snap election; financially, morally, politically or otherwise.
Ain’t gonna happen.
It’s just Dáil panto season again. Besides MickeyD would tell them to cop on and form a new government.

So who replaces Fitzgerald?
and further current Min Justice Charlie Flanagan is implicated in the Garda/McCabe scandals, what happens to him?


#11

I reckon FF got panicked by SF.

In previous opinion polls many older voters have said they’d consider voting SF if Adams was gone, his departure is now official. They lost a good chunk of their tradition vote to SF in the younger generation, around where I lived the FF households stayed true but their offspring went SF in the last election.

So when SF made a lightening strike with the no confidence vote, FF couldn’t let SF have that public opinion victory.

FG aren’t competing against SF so they’re entirely right to close ranks and let FF take all the flak for collapsing the government. FF TDs will be panicking if FG call their bluff and have to go to the country. This panicked election could be the evisceration of the remnant FF.


#12

An election plays into the hands of the English over Brexit. With no government in place, an Irish veto in December becomes unlikely, no?

Anyway, what’s to stop the government from proposing a motion of confidence in the government and ignoring the motion of no confidence in the Tanaiste?


#13

It would be a hearty laugh if a snap election delivered wee Jerry the Taoiseach seat as an early retirement present!

How would the Tories and their rabid media handle that!


#14

Agree on Brexit. This is lunacy from FF in particular, although SF raised the stakes thinking it would have no impact - which was reckless. Talk this lunchtime of a vote on 15 December - the day of the EU summit XX

Okay, May’s authority is shot and Merkel’s coalition talks are going nowhere but we’d be in a very shaky position if the Dail had been dissolved at the time of the summit. We’d actually need to send the whole lot of them - Leo, Michael, Mary Lou and any other serious players - to a press conference in Brussels on the eve of the summit to stress that whatever happens, the Irish position won’t change.


#15

rte.ie/news/politics/2017/1 … -politics/
Whatever you think of her, this seems a little harsh…


#16

Regina Doherty desperately begging FiannaFáil. :unamused:
twitter.com/rtenews/status/934011711950114816


#17

Wow, the comments make the 'pin look like Sunday school. When did it become alright to publicly abuse like that?


#18

How about we hobble along without a govt. Like the North has, to demonstrate how life goes on without political soap opera.


#19

Just observing SF over the years but they’ve been quite vocal about their opposition to Fine Gael policies over the years. Things like homelessness, the housing crisis, failure to build social housing, the 650’000 on hospital waiting lists, zero hour contracts, the enrichment of vulture funds, the failure to reform the gardaí, failure of Irish government to stand by their Good Friday obligations… stuff like that… They’ve been quite consistent. Calling a no confidence motion because the tanaiste was privy to a strategy of destroy a whistleblower, covering it up and then repeatedly misleading the Dail might be opportunist, but at least it’s consistent.


#20

Well… since Doherty decided to abuse her powers…
A New York-based blogger who was stopped and cautioned by gardaí at Dublin Airport about social media posts she made about Minister for Employment Regina Doherty is considering legal action against gardaí.
irishtimes.com/news/politic … -1.3145958