GE2020 - Government Formation Watch


#21

ya I just feel Labour will get up to 10-12 seats as people more than anything want the parties they vote for to form a government rather than talk endlessly.

I dread to think of a SF led left leaning government, they could run up a huge bill in a couple of years that would be tough to pay back.


#22

That would be a different kind of huge bill to the one that the forthcoming coalition ran up the last time?


#23

Maybe he means future liabilities from things like putting the dole up to €350 a week permanently or free houses for everyone and witness protection programmes / danger money for jury members as opposed to legacy liabilities.


#24

yes the level of spending in the PFG is completely untenable and not grounded in reality. the last coalition overspent but the promises being made now in terms of the fiscal hole we are in are just daft.


#25

#26

Must be close to defeat of the green government formation. Vrad sounded shaky compared to his confident assertions this morning


#27

#28

A Government that nobody wanted, least of all those who comprise it.

The likelihood as of now must surely be that this will damage all three participants but the Greens and FF in particular. The Greens are clearly split on the issue but bowed to pressure applied over the last week, and now find themselves propping up a desperate power grab on the part of an ever fading civil war cohort. Assuming the expected transpires in economic terms, the finances simply wont be available to deliver on most of the Green elements contained within the PfG. Having campaigned for ‘change’ they’re now walking a tightrope of possible return to their post bailout numbers.

FF potentially face an even worse scenario. Equally split, membership only supported the current proposal because the alternative was an electoral wipeout. They will now need a miracle for them not to have been at helm during the two largest economic contractions of the past 50 years. Their campaign was based on lies and a vote for FF is now clearly a vote for FG in spite of what they say. They may not be around for much longer.

Id suggest that its now likely that a new broadly right liberal establishment bloc will coalesce around FG into the future. This is where the power in Irish life currently lies and is likely to remain as such for the forseeable. The pandemic has been good to Leo and co given where they were in January.

SF are also happy enough with how things have panned out. They likely would have formed the current administration had they fielded more candidates last time out. However, assuming a significant recession is incoming they are better off in opposition. There is a left vote in Ireland now and most of it is likely to coalesce around SF. They will cannibalise the PbP and elements of the Greens and maybe even whats left of Labour. They could also potentially hoover up the republican element in Fianna Fail but that will depend on events elsewhere.

Regardless, Ireland is now a society where an aggressive secular liberalism holds sway and where access to official communication channels is increasingly limited to those who conform to one of two permitted liberal, globalist dogmas ie economically right leaning liely to coalesce around FG and economically left leaning likely to coalesce around SF. The establishment permits no alternative public utterances.

However, there is clearly a significant cohort, perhaps as much as 20% of the electorate, who do not support the prevailing dogma. They consist of segments within both FF and SF along with supporters of numerous independents and the likes of Aontu. It remains to be seen if any of these groups could organise themselves into a coherent outfit. But they are disparate and formulating a common policy programme might be beyond them.

The possibility must be however that if they dont, in the event of a significant recession (the first of which we will ever have experienced when emigration does not provide opportunity for escape and reinvention), that we may begin to see the rise of the type of populism that has emerged elsewhere in Europe.

The January election was won and lost on the issue of access to housing which is linked to a number of related issues. Any party that offers viable solutions around this issue is on to a winner


#29

How long will it take, and who will be the first Fianna Fail TD to leave the government and join Sinn Fein, I think it will happen after the first budget, but can’t predict who it might be


#30

Youd have to suspect O’Cuiv is a possibility. However it wouldnt surprise me to see him joining Aontu or even trying to start something of his own, perhaps with the likes of Mattie McGrath rather than joining SF. His stance on abortion meqns hes likely not welcome in SF.

Calleary cant be happy either despite being named Chief Whip. Or O’Callaghan. Or Chambers although none of them would be SF material. Theyll be circling Martin as soon as he becomes perceived as vulnerable.

Some of the Greens could potentially end up with SF. Saoirse McHugh said shed leave if the current deal was passed. Not a peep out of her yet.


#31

Irish people can be such frickin’ painful arseholes when we are demanding international attention. About 80% of the responses to a Sky News tweet on Meehole becoming “prime minister” are along the lines of “WE DON’T HAVE A PRIME MINISTER, HE’S CALLED THE TAOISEACH, SO THERE!”.

Read Article 13.1 of the consitution you fukkin’ prats.


#32

I didn’t look to closely at the CNN article referring to Graham Linehan as a Brit but there may be less of such comments on that one.


#33

There is a childish petulance about some of the Greens, especially the younger/newer ones. They insist we have a decade to save the planet, but were prepared to spend 5 years in opposition if every one of their demands was not met in full. They appear to favour militancy over deal making and I don’t think the electorate would have been very forgiving if they turned their noses up at this PfG as it has a lot of green fingerprints.


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#34

Whatever about the Greens, the fact that there is zero representation at cabinet level for most of the country beyond Greater Dublin and Cork is indicative of the mindset of those societal segments in whom power currently vests.

It also says a lot about the type of platitudes that the powers that be constantly throw about ie true ‘diversity’ in an Irish context would include input from more than a few token rural representatives.

We now live in a society which defines what it means to be Irish in a very narrowly constructed manner…and which is every bit as dismissive of non-conformity as the old school variety ever was.


#35

“Some of the Greens could potentially end up with SF. Saoirse McHugh said shed leave if the current deal was passed. Not a peep out of her yet.”

It’d be disastrous for the majority alright if this non-TD left the Greens.

The only talking head who’s lost more elections is probably Peter Casey.


#36

The only “diversity” advocated for, is that of the leftist kind, the largest ethnic minority in the country is Eastern European variety, yet they dont appear in our media, education, NGO lobby groups etc. Imo its because they would form a conservative bloc equal to that of a small county.