General Election, Ireland 2020 - Free Unicorns, Racism, Brick, Ugly, Housing, Tiocfaidh ár lá, Hearts & Minds, Transfers, Asylum, Hot Waters, Open Borders, Polls... Did someone say IMMIGRATION? :icon_eek:


#182

The root cause of successive housing policies and ensuing outcomes is the root cause of immigration policies and the ensuing outcomes.

What is your point absent the rhetorical “we” strawmen, exactly?


#183

I think by “we”, he’s referring to “we” the collective neoliberal koolaid drinkers of Ireland.


#184

Sorry. When I say “we” I mean it in the context of Irish gov economic policy. And who voted for that at the time, and now.

Show me your budget and I’ll show you your values, I guess.


#185

Ha! We’re so up to our eyeballs in debt that the Government are essentially the landlords agent at this point.
This next election is for which ever variety of agent the people want.


#186

I’m guessing you believe in collective guilt for the Holocaust too.

Anyway, in Ireland change can come from unexpected quarters. Eastern Europe are already revolting about their brain drain. We may well see freedom of movement curtailed. As someone said during the crash - things are always ruled out as impossible until they suddenly become inevitable.


#187

I’m guessing you believe in collective guilt for the Holocaust too.

Nope. Try me. But we’ll be getting off topic.


#188

What is the objection to the term we. Is it some libertarian trope?
We the people, we the people might have our say Saturday week


#189

Agreed. I pointed at the electorate myself…much the same, I think?


#190

I don’t know anyone else’s, but my objection to “We” is it’s sneaky use by the elite - as in when Fintan O’Toole says something like:

“If we want quality public sector broadcasting we’re going to have to pay for it”

No, actually Fintan, just fk off.


#191

Guess ^you^ can get back on topic for while.

Some interesting detail on the voting intentions here in the IT poll

Clearly no one gives too fs about climate change apart from some urban elites (ABs). The greens will not do as well apart from pockets of south dublin.

FF have a massive lead in the over 65s. Absolutely massive lead in the group that will turn out. Expect some rural ministers to be unseated.

SF are also strong in the over 35s which might endup in a higher percentage vote.

Housing is coming a distance second to health in most groups.

Other issues such as the word that does not dare speak its name is less than 5%.


#192

Fine Gael still the most popular party in Dublin but not above 21 or 22 per cent. Independents/others way ahead of everyone else in Dublin. I wonder what that means as the Greens are excluded from that segment?

SF the largest in the rest of Leinster and polling very well everywhere else.

At this stage FF look like they’ll lead a coalition. Not clear who would form it with them though.

Housing by far the biggest issue in Dublin and around. Concerns around migration, if they exist, will be contained within this segment. Housing second to health in other locations.

FG quite likely to lose a lot of seats all over unless they can make people believe Brexit is an issue for them. Unlikely at this stage.


#193

it says Independent/Other (incl Green Party) so independents at 20%

Indo category incl
Solidarity–People Before Profit.
Independents 4 Change.
Social Democrats.
Aontu
Renua
Shane Ross Retirement Fund Party


#194

Yes they appear to have double counted the Greens, bizarrely. Such that their vote is appearing in two separate voting segments.

Journal take below. Are they correct in saying that SF are polling above FG? The IT poll that im looking at doesnt reflect that.

If this was to be accurate and FG were to polll below 20% then they will be decimated in terms of numbers of seats.


#195

So, you think being Irish is a cultural construct, that anyone can just adopt?

Yes. That’s exactly what we do as children. But it does take a childhood

Like at Paddy’s day. Put on the plastic green hat. Hey presto! Top of the morning to you.

No.


#196

So, you think being Irish is a cultural construct, that anyone can just adopt?

Yes. That’s exactly what we do as children. But it does take a childhood

Just another whiteman who drank the neoliberal koolaid.


#197

Problem with many of the polls (or perhaps more fairly the interpreters of them) is that they focus on the headline figures i.e. the first preferences so there is no accounting for transfer patterns. Many of the pollsters ask for second preferences and whether the person is likely to vote - that will give a more accurate picture but still not the whole. We all know how transfers can play out and how long that tail can be. And that the beneficiaries are usually established parties. Traditionally SF have been very poor at getting transfers - I believe that is changing as they are now becoming a more established party. Think of Lucinda Creighton in DBS - I think she was 4th in the first preferences but failed to get transfers.

I think FG will get a good kicking but even on 20% they could end up with more seats than SF if SF don’t get transfers.


#198

Good question in terms of SF tranfers. On those numbers tey will have enough for a quota in each constituency. Border areas they have a chance for 2 seats plus they are mlre transfer friendly in border areas.
Another question is how transfer friendly will FG be?


#199

Question - which Irish person has weakened the UK’s Union the most over the last 3 years ?

It’s not a SF person or anyone of similar. It has to be Varadkar ? Martin would have been hopelessly febrile in comparison. It’s hard to think Mary Lou could have gotten such weakening over the line.


#200

FG knocked into 3rd place behing SF on 19% vote share is just about as bad as it gets. Varadkar is gone by Tuesday at that rate of going, and as I was saying last week there will be serious discussion about the future of FG with a result like that. It would be unprecedented.

I still expect SF to fall back from where the polls show them. But FG won’t be the beneficiary that’s for sure.


#201

I personally think Commander Riker would make a great Taoiseach.