Sinn Fein, the Donald Trump or Coronavirus of Irish politics - take your pick/depends on your outlook.
General Election, Ireland 2020 - Free Unicorns, Racism, Brick, Ugly, Housing, Tiocfaidh ár lá, Hearts & Minds, Transfers, Asylum, Hot Waters, Open Borders, Polls... Did someone say IMMIGRATION? :icon_eek:
I hear this argument all the time. However the fact remains that it is completely ridiculous to compare the Irish Civil War, a short-lived armed conflict for power between two groups who probably represented 90%+ of the people in the ROI between them, with a terrorist campaign conducted by a group in the 1970s with probably less than 10% of the vote in NI, a campaign which went on for the guts of 30 years. I don’t recall the Irish Civil War combatants indulging in bombing civilian-rich targets such as shops or pubs or engaging in protection rackets or kneecapping or disappearing civilians they didn’t like.
I’m surprised that you are buying into SF revisionism in this way although others on here are busy promoting it.
Yeah well all the files got destroyed
I’m surprised you think I’m in the market to value and purchase one life over another. However I do prefer a steak knife when carving my meat. It gets the job done. Don’t you agree?
it is completely ridiculous…
It is? It it actually worthy of ridicule? It’s a serious topic, I don’t think it is worthy of ridicule.
Why do you think it’s worthy of ridicule?
But youre also ignoring the fact that this SF surge has more to do with housing than it does with the national question etc.
Its mainly people below 50 who have voted for SF. These are the generations locked out of the housing market or those spending hours commuting to work every day from 100 miles away…while the powers that be consider building a canoeing centre for themselves n the middle of the quays close to where those same commuters work.
Or indeed, as in Waterford (40% for SF - 0 seats for FG) , they are the relatives and friends of people who have died due to the absence of a Cath lab in the city…while Harris pisses money away on the most expensive hospital on the planet.
The past is a different country etc. We’re living in the here and now and it seems that many of us have clearly had enough of the bullshit regardless of its proto liberal feel good packaging.
SF have said they’ll build houses and restore pensions to 65, address issues in the health service. Leave them off so cos it cant get any worse than it is currently…and if they dont deliver likelihood is they’ll be cast aside for someone else next time round who will do what SF say they’re going to do now.
Its a turn of phrase. Let’s rephrase it as “completely incorrect” or “disingenuous”.
Okay. How is it “completely incorrect” or “disingenuous”? Can you explain.
(BTW, I think they are 2 different scenarios. You have to factor in the ideologies of the leftwing 60s revolutionaries to make sense of it. The problem is they don’t want to talk about that. Because is raises awkward questions.)
Of course the “National Question” wasn’t a factor in the rise of SF 's vote - I never said that it was. Few in ROI are worked up about that issue these days. People voted for a populist party offering goodies for all - I totally understand that. My objection is to them on moral grounds, people could have voted for other left wing groups without a murderous past.
But anyway we are where we are to coin a phrase.
What I would suggest to a leader of FF of FG is to say that yes we are listening to the electorate and are prepared to share power with SF. But just to put the past to bed we will do so on the following basis:
SF unequivocally state that:
- the Provisional IRA campaign was wrong
- as the political wing of the PIRA they apologise to all victims of IRA violence
- they renounce ever using violence or the threat of violence as a future strategy ever again
If they can make such a statement (without indulging in any whataboutery about British security forces, Loyalist murder gangs etc) then fair enough let’s go forward with a clear slate.
I would be interested to see if Mary Lou McDonald would be able to do this, something that a fully democratic party would not think twice about.
It’s interesting to look at the Rathdown and Dun Laoghaire constituencies.
Dublin Rathdown is a very very middle class place. If you live there then either you or your ancestors were winning. And the FG vote held up at 30%. That’s a loyal vote from one election to the next. With Shane Ross’s collapse they won a new seat, but didn’t gain a share of the vote. SF went from 7 to 11percent. Two seats in a three seater with 30 per cent of vote.
In Dun Laoghaire they still had 30 plus percent of the vote from one election to the next. But won one seat out of four because they made mistake of running 3 candidates. Dun Laoighaire vote really shows that the place is still Kingstown of old, SF up to 9.6 percent of vote only. 5/6ths of the SF vote transferred to Boyd Barrett and got him elected. Explain the mystery of Boyd Barrett to me please ? He has his mother’s eyes and grandfather’s eyes ? Is that it - the Cusack eyes charming people ? I know he’s a Trot, but I couldn’t see him running a gulag.
BB performed well in the debates. There still is palpable anger when he mentioned the banks and growing anger in relation to housing.
I don’t want to derail the thread with an analysis of the Civil War. It was an unwelcome episode in our country’s history but I think it should be quite clear that it was very distinct from “The Troubles” in terms of the popular support levels of the 2 protagonists, the brevity, the level of civilian targeting etc. etc.
He also works very hard and attends and supports a huge array of meetings and actions about community issues such as local planning issues. He gets plenty of middle income and high income votes because of this.
That particular core vote is not going to get bigger any time soon; its the policies the wonks put together that attracted so many new voters to SF this time.
Besides, would that specific core constituency push Ireland to Irexit now, or in the near future? That means going directly into the economic orbit of the UK, at this moment in history.
In the south, I can’t see a break with the EU to be honest in the short to mid term, especially after all we have been through in terms of the crash; in the north, alignment with the EU is politically advantageous.
Irexit in this generation would seem retrograde if you are in SF, I think.
No, SF deliver the line that the EU is good, and ride the EU for all its political worth, funds and all, right up to a united Ireland and for some time beyond, at least until the dust, or bomb debris, has settled. That would take some considerable time.
Just to clarify, I wasnt suggesting that they would be seeking to Irexit within the current context. Simply that its a similar demographic to that which voted for Brexit in the UK ie broadly and unashamedly nationalist in outlook ie a very long way away from sharing common ground with the Fintans and Unas of this world…who appear to be hopping on what they perceive as a progressive bandwagon which they can perhaps co-opt and pilot in the direction of a shared Scandinavian type utopian future.
Edit - just on the following ,
“That particular core vote is not going to get bigger; its the policies the wonks put together that attracted so many new voters to SF this time”.
Whos to say that is definitely the case? Nationalism is on the rise everywhere else. That SF wouldnt seek to encourage and capitalise on the phenomenon within the Irish context is certainly far from being beyond the bounds of possibility. Unless we believe that the former Army Council really do care about transgenderism and the use of pronouns etc (as opposed to viewing such issues as part of a branding exercise).
Of course you don’t want to get into the civil war - because it was a less justifiable and more ruthlessly (albeit shorter) conducted affair. The idea that there was civilly mandated authority from the vote on the treaty for the actions by Oriel House is, to use your own word, ridiculous.
Well, as you know, I don’t share the same view as you when it comes to progressive politics. And that certainly something we can debate but not here.
But I’d say the Nationalist outlook is as firmly anchored in the UK as a bogeyman, emotionally, as the Unionist viewpoint is anchored with an anti-Irish fear, rather less a British attachment. These are the emotions that matter. These are dominant.
The EU doesn’t figure to many in Ireland usually; its the signs on the road that the road was built, and it offers another local geographical alternative than just going to the UK when times are bad. And, no matter how you cut it, the EU would have won fans all along the border, for the line they took to protect the Border status quo.
But look, the EU is just a tool, a means to an end, for Nationalists, at least for this current generation pursing a United Ireland. Its been a very useful tool so far.
EDIT: To respond to your edit, you could be right, but issues of pronouns, identity politics, SFWs, no matter how we two might disagree on these, will still take a distant second place to the main objective for SF (and the Army Council). That unification objective will take all the political energy. Nationalism may or may not be on the rise in Europe - we can argue that - but in Ireland Nationalism has not yet achieved its core objective of unification.
And then if the objective is immediately achieved, dealing with the aftermath and the pain caused will take more energy.
Interesting to read the view from across the water.
Vox pop from RT
"It never seems to have occurred to Fine Gael, and to a lesser extent Fianna Fail, that for a good decade now those parties have been chasing the support of parties that have never won an election in the first place. They’ve been pursuing the traditional Labour voter, when the traditional Labour voter has never gotten the Labour party more than 19% in a national election.
Across the country yesterday, people who were once Fine Gaelers, or Fianna Fáilers, romped home as independents. People like Denis Naughten, and Michael Collins, and Mattie McGrath, and Michael Healy-Rae. Meanwhile the “new Fine Gael” collapsed. Deirdre Duffy got 570 votes. Catherine Noone got 2%. Kate O’Connell, God be Praised, was thrown out of her seat.
Fine Gael, under Varadkar, has become a party with a fundamental identity crisis. It doesn’t know who its own voters are. If it did know, you suspect it would recoil in horror and disgust, and demand that they vote for somebody else. Yesterday, many of them did."
The interesting thing about woke Sinn Fein is that in order to get a united Ireland we need to bring 1 million unionists in the top North east corner into the fold. With all of the liberalisation over the last 10 years in particular, and Brexit, these people are more alienated from the south than ever before. They will want to have even less to do with a northern hemisphere version of South Africa - the rainbow nation- which SF, FG, FF and others backing Ireland 2040 are at risk of creating.
If anything Scots/Northern Irish nationalism may have to become aligned to rural Catholic/Irish nationalism to counteract Woke SF and the Dublin centric globalist establishment.