General Election, Ireland 2020 - Free Unicorns, Racism, Brick, Ugly, Housing, Tiocfaidh ár lá, Hearts & Minds, Transfers, Asylum, Hot Waters, Open Borders, Polls... Did someone say IMMIGRATION? :icon_eek:


#304

The trend to Alliance in the North may be a pointer here. People want to try to get to a middle ground…

Woke (god, whatever that is now) is better than a bomb in the local pub. Wait…gotta bomb the other lads now…

A ‘northern hemisphere version of South Africa’ is the kind of hyperbole I’ve seen on this thread which is less than useless. I remember the original title of this thread…way out of kilter.

Again, the eternal Irish question trumps everything else. ‘Scots/Northern Irish nationalism may have to become aligned to rural Catholic/Irish nationalism’…my god! Get over yourselves, lads.

You of course have a point to make…but this is only going to happen when those tribes get over what final settlement happens in the North, and get through the 20 years that follow.


#305

Ok that’s an interesting analysis, but McGurk like David Quinn and John Waters are living in the past. They’re all from traditional catholic FG families (I know Waters wandered, but read his first book he’s a blue shirt really) and never came to terms with the Garret Fitzgerald takeover of FG. That debate was literally lost 35 fecking years ago within FG!

McGurk is right that abortion and Gay marriage have lost FG of 5% of their vote. He seems to think this is the most important 5% they had. But the truth of the matter is that FG are richer, and rich people in the 1980s were among the first to demand European divorce and abortion laws, because rich people are usually more lax morally. Apart from the well to do Catholic nutcase types.

The Conservative and Garrett wings were always an uneasy alliance. It was barely hanging together. They won’t reap some electoral harvest by digging up Joe Doyle again. Ireland just is more socially liberal. The way to counteract that is to show by personal example that social conservatism rather than disordered pleasure seeking leads to a happier life i.e. Logos


#306

I just wanted to highlight this article.

Eilis O’Hanlon has been against ‘young people’ ever since she entered my consciousness in the Sunday Independent, I guess 30 years ago, for me. And she hated students then. Week in, week out…

This article came out the day after the election. But before the exit polls it seems…

I look at the exit poll and I see SF support right up to those 50 years old and older…up to 65 where it drops off.

Irish media has a lot of catching up to do.


#307

#308

Some interesting stuff out of this election - SF’s surpluses seemed to have fanned out across the broad left (and I’ll come back to the definition of left later) with the exception of the Labour Party - that’s partly because the Labour Party are largely old and redundant, but I also get a feeling that SFs instructions were carry on voting for the left except for the Labour party. Inter party transfers on the left held up well even in rural areas giving left leaning candidates a bit of a boost. This may mean be the start of a long term coalition of the left. SF would like to see themselves as the keeper of the flame but they are primarily a nationalist party - their principle policy plank is a United Ireland - if they don’t deliver (or at least attempt to deliver) on a Unity vote after this election then it might be a long time before they get a chance - however making that a condition of coalition will guarantee a spell in the wilderness.

Their socialism is their second plank but most on the ‘harder’ left and even some of the ‘soft’ left (specifically the Labour Party) are wary of a party that divided the Northern working class in a sectarian conflict rather than uniting them in a class conflict that had just as much potential to right the wrongs inflicted by the wealthy unionist class who were happy to watch their serfs tear lumps out of each other.

SF have had a couple of slip ups already at some of the count celebrations and the management of any mention of a Unity vote had to happen quicker than anticipated when Matt Carthy blabbed last night so Gerry and Mary Lou had to step in today. Also the fact that their main spokesperson on RTE for a large part of yesterday was Chris Hazzard - a British MP - even though he doesn’t take his seat. The optics of that are not good - it goes with the narrative that SF are controlled from the North and everybody down here are puppets.

Don’t get me wrong - I’m glad Sinn Fein won. They have giving the political landscape the kick it needed. I do believe that violence is in the past and that you must accept the bona fides of those who eschew violence and that if you insist on bringing it up you are only encouraging any remaining violent minority to say ‘look I told you so - we gave up violence and they still treat us like shit’.

The next couple of years are probably going to be chaotic but it can’t be worse than the mess that the traditional parties have made of the last two decades.


#309

Your analysis of SF is stuck in the 1980s. It’s as wayward as your prediction of Dublin Bay South. A failure to deliver a vote in the South means nothing, making plans for unification is much more symbolic and can be done without a vote. The ‘divided up the working class in the North’ is pure sticky shite - how many NI working class Protestants have you known and based this on ? The optics of not taking a Westminster seat are, in fact, entirely good. Chris Hazzard was put on RTE quite deliberately to annoy partitionists. In the same way as they’ll send Southern Reps to meetings in the North. It’s a reminder they’re an all Ireland party.


#310


Oh dear


#311

Shocker.


#312

Banking stocks have been tanking for a while. It won’t matter if SF forms a Government or not whoever gets in is going to build a ton of gaffs, or they lose the next election and the under 35s forever, so it’s logical for property stocks to fall.


#313

More like “My work here is done”.

Zappone is one of the most unusual figures to have ever graced the corridoors of Leinster House.

Interesting take here citing the obliteration of many, to include Zappone, who were to the forefront of the Repeal movement.

https://gript.ie/many-of-the-most-strident-voices-for-abortion-have-lost-seats-in-election-2020/?fbclid=IwAR1d_SNVHhQdUrxUTsk_Rrzw6vZ9ic0hf9yI4gwll1_3djhv7IKEZPssnrM


#314

100%. Bring them down the democracy path so they have much more to lose. Like the rest of them.


#315

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AIBG:ID

Completely agree. Bank stocks were tanking since the middle of last year. No doubt down to sein fein.

That old neoliberal wolf cry has lost its appeal by being patently false on numberous occasions.


#316

So FF/FG and Greens or Independents to form a grand alliance?

Massive fast tracked ‘normal’ house building and social house building required inside of 3 years to avoid a slaughter next time round. Can they actually get that done?


#317

I only see 3 options ->

FF/FG/Greens
FF/SF/Greens
2nd election

2nd election should scare FF/FG - SF will field more candidates and get way more seats. Michael Martin does not want to go down in history as the first FF leader not to be Taoiseach but he has dug a huge hole for himself. FF will have to make a choice to ditch him and put in a leader who would bring them into power with SF or MMartin fights to the death and somehow survives. I don’t see Leo surviving…either he fecks off to the EU/UN or the FGers oust him. Howlin might not survive either.

The media frenzy over SF just shows how out of touch they are along with the FF/FGers. All these condescending articles, “we know better” type stuff…despite the fact the status quo drove society on average (esp younger people) into insecure renters with little to no job security while we’re constantly being told that we’ve never had it better…by people who drove the country into economic ruin (or the people who have stood idly by letting the market eat us alive through vulture funds and bank/insurance cartels profiteering). You can tell anyone under 40 was looking for immediate solutions to housing/health and FF/FG were not offering that based on recent history.


#318

oooh, not sure if the greens are in favour of that kind of carbon footprint. Maybe if they build communes and wigwams.


#319

Sarcasm doesn’t often work well in print. I’m assuming the above is sarcastic, but if not would someone explain why property stocks would fall when Sinn Fein election promised to launch the biggest ever house building programme in history of the state?


#320

Presumably lots of new supply of council built housing would impact on current housing stock values. Especially now that there is an active policy on the ground to place social-type housing in the middle of private estates. Which is the real reason why FG/FF haven’t done it before now.


#321

Property stocks will fall as Sinn Fein have promised to get rents down immediately and hence yields would fall for property stocks.

After assuming power in a coalition of the left their plan will be to appoint Slab Murphy as Minister for Construction. All property developers and builders to be immediately nationalised and to work under the firm direction of Slab and his pals on a massive programme of flat building. Building styles are to be modeled on the West Belfast Divis flats to ensure a constant supply of Sinn Fein voters into the future.

For the avoidance of doubt some of the above may be satire, some might be the way these guys actually think they should move ahead.


#322

Another interesting left field take from Gript to which the MSM establishment appear oblivious…Varadkars ‘backwoodsmen’ are the fourth largest grouping in the Dail…

"Where voters had the opportunity to vote for right-leaning, culturally conservative, anti-establishment populism, they took it. It is fascinating to wonder what might happen were those politicians listed here to form a political party around their shared views – scepticism of climate policy, demands for rural regeneration, a hard line on crime, opposition to health services being clustered and centralised, scepticism of immigration, and all the rest of it.

It is not hard to imagine such a party winning swathes of votes across rural Ireland. Its putative members have already done just that.

Meanwhile, it was an abysmal day for smaller populist and ideological right wing parties, with none of their candidates managing to break 2% in any constituency. There’s a lesson in the contrast between the two outcomes.

The independents who swept back into office, or who were elected for the first time, are rooted in their communities, and trusted by their voters. Michael Healy Rae, accepting victory, underlined this point: “To be a national politician” he said, “you have to be a good local politician first”. On the right of Irish politics, those who succeed are those who have worked for years in their communities and built up trust and support enough to withstand assaults from the national media and Ireland’s plethora of roaming NGOs, who are always seeking a new target".

https://gript.ie/backwoodsmen/?fbclid=IwAR2wnnzfZwHHVVKPYGIObtaaAUlcUEmtz6vxxwyZMgGVDZEZob3jZsMWgHQ


#323

Ok so

  • Martin and Varadkar have both gone quiet as their leadership positions in their parties are insecure
  • no one wants another election as SF would run more candidates
  • no one on “the Left” really wants to go into government with SF, because each of them would want the whip hand when doing that. They each want a “left alternative”…but only if they get to lead it.
  • SF must be undermined, but so many on “the left” got elected from SF transfers that they have to be careful how they do it.
  • people are still attacking FF on the doorsteps for the crash, so that’s a big problem for their amnesia strategy
  • were facing a huge public health emergency on coronavirus and i’d say we don’t even have 10 ICU beds free.