General Election, Ireland 2020 - Free Unicorns, Racism, Brick, Ugly, Housing, Tiocfaidh ár lá, Hearts & Minds, Transfers, Asylum, Hot Waters, Open Borders, Polls... Did someone say IMMIGRATION? :icon_eek:


#324

It seems and i could be wrong many in FF are not willing in any way to go into coalition with SF. SOme seem amenable but many urban FGs are totally opposed to it. Many rural FFers are total against going into coalition with FG as the civil war is still playing out in their heads.
But lets face it, they are politicians at the end of the day and they want power. After a month or two of some overly pious stretching they will sign up to something for a year or so, without SF.


#325

Yeah, FF & FG would prefer a second election to a coalition…even if it hurts them in the short term…they probably might come to the conclusion that we are closer to a new recession than we were to one in 2008. They might just risk the roll of the dice. Hard to tell…down to Michael Martin and how much he wants to be Taoiseach (as long as others in FF might row in behind him…)


#326

+1.The economy is ticking and with the state balance sheet as it is, even Sinn Fein won’t be able to defuse it.


#327

I saw a quote from Haughey in 1989 when they were doing a deal with Dessie O’Malley to coalesce with the PDs.
A journalist put it to CJ that Fianna Fail were on record as saying they ‘would never go into coalition’.
Haughey replied that Fianna Fail were once on record as saying ‘they would never enter the Dail’


#328

Gas… Never say never.


#329

Nice list, I would include on that list also what we are facing form a:

  • US Broadside - many things yet to come with Big-League impactful world changing things, not in Irelands favour and perhaps compounded by our deep integration int the EU.
  • Brexittinum - the appearance of a novel free radical in the political periodic table.

#330

Well that was fun to watch. The country goes from Summer of 1977 Completely Fantasyland to Spring of 1981 We are so Fucked, We are so Fucked. In less than 24 hours. And all because of a 4% protest vote and very low turnout.

Remember what the wise political scientist once said, if a country has crap politicians its because the country has crap voters. Hence the long reign of FF…

The only real shock of the election is the very concrete evidence that the one awesome to behold FF party machine seems to be broken for good. FF transfer discipline is now as bad as FG. Thats what kept FF in power for so many years. They have lost the working class and the Republican vote and the rural vote is soft. If FF are stupid enough to do a deal with SF then they doomed to follow Asquith’s Liberals into a long lingering death as a party. To be replaced by an almost exact replica of FF circa 1927. Current Sinn Fein. With Marxism replacing Falangist Catholicism as the official party religion.

So tell me this resident Shinner apologists. What this Unification of which you speak? Given that only around 30% of Nordies consider themselves Irish and the large majority most certainly dont. Plan to kill or drive out, a la pied noirs, all those awkward Prods and Brits who get in the way of your Unified Ireland Nirvana? Europes very own Chavismo Bolivar Republic.

Its not like SF has not spent a good part of the last 50 years try to do just that. Suggest you pick a good vantage point somewhere on the Shankill Road next Twelfth if you think these people will shuffle quietly into your “United Ireland”. Not going to happen.

Given that after 20 years of “political engagement” in the North SF still cannot seem to get anyone other the RC’s to vote for it Well less than 2/3’rd of RC’s. One third of RC’s like one quarter of Protestants would rather vote for anyone other than the tribalist feckers on either side.

See that the problem with SF style Republicanism. In over one hundred years since the Ulster Convent they have so far only succeeded in persuading maybe 4% (basically a sample error rate) of Protestants in NI that being Irish is an inclusive national identity. Unlike being, say British, to just pick a civic national identity purely at random. Irish Republicanism in its modern form always was and always will be authoritarian anti-democratic sectarian ultra-nationalism. So just like the NSDAP. But without the D. With the Brits and the Prods replacing die juden as the eternal bogeymen responsible for the ill’s that befall the chosen people.

Add to all that the fact that the SF apparat are still the murderous criminal scum who murdered thousands and tortured hundreds. But we all knew that already.

There were a lot of elections in 1981 and 1982. Expect a few more before this current comedy plays out. When external events not only change the rules of the game but rip up the playing field. Fun times ahead.

Any of you guys following whats going on in Thuringia? Thats were the really important stuff is happening this week.


#331

What’s going on in Thuringia? I couldn’t figure it out. What’s happened and why is it important? People seemed to be getting really worked up over it. Perhaps we could make a new thread about it?


#332

An interesting stat is that, based on the combined vote across the island of Ireland, inclusive of the Westminster election in December 2019 and last Saturdays vote, Sinn Fein have a combined all Ireland vote of just under 720,000 1st preferences.

FF, at around 480,000 1st preferences are second. The largest Unionist grouping, the DUP, have a total of 244,000. I think the future post-Brexit political direction is pretty clear to all.

Nontheless, it is housing and health (and the general incompetence of FG) which is the reason for Saturdays vote. SF will need to deliver for those who have voted for them in order to retain their support.


#333

I think you’re missing a trick.

It’s the EU have been manoeuvring or at least enabling SF into a position of strength to push for a United Ireland or at least raise it as a living spectre, as leverage against the maverick British Nation hellhound for Brexit.

You could seen the pre-positioning moves in the run to and during the 8th campaign, an attempt to open an Irish flank during the fog of Brexit while they had Agent May working feverishly on the inside to undermine the whole deal on behalf of EU super state interests. The carrot dangled in front of SF (finances from new sympathetic sources with shared agendas one wonders…) must have been rather appealing on many levels to the current party leadership & co, or at leat a lot of doors have been opened to SF where once no one thought even possible.

It’s tragically comic, that the most probable moment in Irish history, that a United Ireland seems to be within reach by a few ticks, is post the event when the Republic utterly lost it’s sovereignty to a greater Union which behaves towards it’s new but sparsely populated (so far) colony as belligerently as the Crown did in modern relative terms of course, while another generation of friends and family have left it’s shores never to return, settle and raise their present or future families, thus depriving Ireland and all those traditional parties of a ready supply of native voters.

Now that really is a dilly of a pickle, I only wonder what the fast-track solution could be and who might finance it? :whistle:


#334

I think this is the difficulty with being on the West Coast of America and observing Ireland through a telescope. You can retire your Albert Venn Dicey views on Ireland. They’re way out of date. After 20 years of migration, multiculturalism is almost as big a threat to unification as unionism. Why should a Nigerian or Filipino care ?

SF is full of careerist opportunists (like all parties - see Mr and Mrs Green TD) There’s absolutely no chance of revolutionary change given the PR system. The multinationals really run Ireland. Relax basically :blush:


#335

Thank you. In half a dozen lines you’ve made my point for me - far better than the windy, polite old shite that I came out with.


#336

Yes yes the symbolic element is a powerful observation and I was trying to make a similar point in my previous post, I didn’t spot @BlameGame (s) earlier outlining of it’s use by SF.


#337

Which EU countries are doing this? I can’t see France or Germany doing this, for example…


#338

This appears to be a contradiction. They may not care, but that means they are not going to actively stand against it.


#339

If they see that unification could increase taxes, they’re more likely to vote against it.
They will not see any benefit and will not have any interest in the historical reason for unification.


#340

Ah catty leo :grinning: manouvering away to avoid an FF FG alliance.

Isn’t there some law in Ireland against forced marriages ? Or were we too inclusive and multicultural to put one in place ?


#341

What do you think, was poor Leo;

A) Incapable or B) Thrun Under the Bus?


#342

He was never a good minister himself, and he was not a good manager - he never called his own ministers to account and was persistently partisan.

But as John McGurk said, he’s always been an excellent politician. So he will plot his way through this well, for himself and his party. Unless he decides to jump ship and become UN High Commissioner for Marriage Equality or something in the EU.

The seeds of FG’s demise were sown at the start of the Enda government. They wasted a good crisis. They then wasted a lot of social capital on water charges - which let’s face it was a stroke to implement a poll tax, in order to be seen to lower other taxes.

As PtG has said it all comes down to health and housing. If the next government doesn’t fix those theyll get punished.

On health, the Enda government probably didn’t lower our annual Acute Bed Cost. Now Leo reaps that. Along with a raft of other decisions avoided.

On housing, Noonan followed the Troikas guidance to pay down NAMA debt quickly. The consequences have been

  • deliberate policy to reinflate house prices
  • Land banks sold to foreign funds and investors
  • Completed developments sold in bulk to foreign funds and investors. Who, unlike canny individual owners, have perfect knowledge of what rent should be set each year on every floor and every aspect of their blocks.
  • we went from the dominant theme being ghost estates…to a housing shortage

Then there’s the perfect storm of trends that Leo just went along with including

  • mass migration
  • foreign students industry to keep our third level afloat. But they have to be housed somewhere so dedicated blocks get built for them instead of for families
  • mass gaming of the social housing list by non-nationals and the ‘i want my forever home’ crowd who haven’t come to terms with the fact that given mass migration they can’t expect what their parents got in terms of social housing.

#343

I think you’ll find most people thinking twice if tax goes up to fund unification.