General Election, Ireland 2020 - Free Unicorns, Racism, Brick, Ugly, Housing, Tiocfaidh ár lá, Hearts & Minds, Transfers, Asylum, Hot Waters, Open Borders, Polls... Did someone say IMMIGRATION? :icon_eek:


#344

#345

None of this makes sense.

Who in the EU has been “manoeuvring or at least enabling SF into a position of strength”? Which countries are doing this and how are they doing it?

" Agent May working feverishly on the inside to undermine the whole deal on behalf of EU super state interests"…this is the same May who set out her “red lines” that discounted any kind of soft Brexit and set the UK on the path to its final deal, a deal that only marginally differed from what May herself brought back from Brussels?

“finances from new sympathetic sources” - what are these sources?

“Republic utterly lost it’s sovereignty to a greater Union which behaves towards it’s new but sparsely populated (so far) colony as belligerently as the Crown did in modern relative terms of course” - really? In what alternative universe is this true? How can these be even a possible comparison between the two?

Sorry, OW, but this has to be challenged.


#346

It’s interesting to compare the website designs for the party’s.
https://finegael.ie is kind of similar to https://sinnfein.ie in the call to action (email subscribe), but the layout on the SF site is much simpler and easier to navigate. https://www.fiannafail.ie/ on the other hand seems outdated. No subscribe. All generic stock photos. Doesn’t seem sincere. The main call to action is “donate” and the social media buttons are barely legible at the bottom.

Ireland: how Sinn Féin stormed the Dublin party

https://www.ft.com/content/26a7a74e-4d8a-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5

“People are in decent jobs making decent money, but the money is all going on rent,” says Kelly Doherty, a 24-year-old DJ from Dublin. “There is none left at the end of the day. Under the current government there doesn’t seem much sympathy for that.”

The Senator urged to watch the film Lost Lives about those killed in the Troubles to be broadcast by the BBC on Sunday night and which he had had screened for TDs and Senators in Leinster House before Christmas.

“When you see the futility of it you certainly wouldn’t be supporting people singing those kinds of songs, because they’re not reflective of the new Ireland for anyone under 35 who never remembered that and certainly didn’t vote to support that."


#347

It’s the one thing that I wouldn’t mind paying higher taxes for over and above what I’m paying already


#348

FF seem to be divided on the question of whether they will enter coalition with SF. Their rural base as represented by the likes of OCuiv and McGuinness clearly have no issue with it. They are basically republican and somewhat left leaning in economic terms ie culturally compatible with SF (in a way they are not with FG) while differing around some policy issues.

Urban FF however as represented by the likes of OCallaghan and Chambers are dead set against. This branch of FF are much more culturally compatible with FG. Id guess that Martin had believed that by indulging and encouraging this element of the party through positioning on the yes side of both referenda of the past few years, he could rebrand the party somewhat and seek to hop the wave of social liberalisation. However, it hasnt worked and all it has done is shrink the partys support in its rural strongholds while doing nothing to stem the process of retrenchment in Dublin and other urban centres. FF are in serious bother here and what they do next may decide whether the party survives as a genuine force into the future.

FG are playing it quite smart and appear happy to allow SF take the reins and, by their reckoning slit their own throats. If FF are on board with that process all the better. Its a gamble because if SF were to assume power and actually deliver on houaing and health they could be set to establish themselves as the new Fianna Fail over the longer term.

In cultural terms we now appear to have the emergence of two distinct base groups in Irish political representation, representing the urbanisation process of the past 40 years. On the one hand is the FG group which is representative of the well to do, socially liberal set of Varadkar, Harris, Murphy etc. Think D4 accents and rugby. Their stronghold is SCD. On the other is the SF group which is unrepently working class, nationalistic, Celtic and GAA supporting. For the first time ever we have strong Dublin accents in the Dail.

As noted above, FF on the other hand, appear to have a bit of an identity crisis and are split as to which side of the SF/FG cultural divide they break towards. I would suggest that the huge support for rural independents says that rural ireland feels largely abandoned by the political status quo. It very much remains to be seen which way rural ireland breaks along these newly defined faultlines.


#349

How much tax?

The UK exchequer provides a £10.8 billion (€12.1 billion) annual subsidy to Northern Ireland…

I’m not against unification. But we need a plan. We’d need to find or fund 12B euros for NI until such time we have re-configured and aligned the NI economy to the that of the RoI. That’s a multi-year project.


#350

Another interesting take away from the election reaults is that the 15 Dail members who voted against Repeal held their seats, some topping the polls

https://gript.ie/all-15-tds-who-voted-no-to-the-abortion-bill-keep-their-seats-in-election-2020/

Meanwhile a significant number of the most prominent voices for Repeal lost

https://gript.ie/many-of-the-most-strident-voices-for-abortion-have-lost-seats-in-election-2020/

Theres clearly huge social and political realignment taking plqce across Irish society with the pre-existing political and media establishment being distinctly unrepresentative of society as a whole.


#351

It would probably be prudent to put some money into the army, aer corp prior to reunification…you Know… just in case. Pity the army was run down so much.


#352

That makes no sense.

Taking the two together, there are still a large number of TDs who voted for abortion and kept their seats.

I understand the stance that Gript want to take, but this is the kind of spin that they themselves are always railing about.

Theres clearly huge social and political realignment taking plqce across Irish society with the pre-existing political and media establishment being distinctly unrepresentative of society as a whole.

Perhaps, but what does it have to with abortion? We had a referendum on that, and society spoke.

EDIT: I now understand that 32 TDs voted against the abortion bill in the Dail. What happened to the others since?


#353

Which part makes no sense?

In response to your first edit, the suggestion would surely be that, contrary to the establishment’s self image, there remains a solidly conservative element to Irish society…and that element, as of now, is minus coherent political representation, as evidenced by the fact that Varadkars “backwoodsmen” are now the fourth largest grouping in the Dail.


#354

I don’t know the numbers off hand, but In terms of the voter register total, what you did not have this time but might be reflected in the register figure vs turnout of this GE and the 8th, are all those people who travelled back to Ireland to vote (some illegally) in the referendum.

I assume 99% of those shall we call them, migratory voters, simply did not participate this time, and everything fell back to current active resident voting pool.

Some analysis of this would be very interesting. If anyone knows where to start.


#355

No needs to apologise, if it does not make sense to you, then it does not make sense to you. It might make some sense to others, even partially some of the time, not always all of the time. Might I rephrase and articulate it better. Possibly, but the point would be broadly the same. Stuff that does not make sense to some can be explained by things that equally make no sense to others - Take it with a pinch of salt if that helps.


#356

The voter turnout for the 8th Repeal votes was 64.13%, and 2,159,655 voting.

The voter turnout for GE2020 was 62.9% and 2,183,765 voting (First Preference Votes).

Since the exit poll didn’t flag up abortion as a issue either, I’m not sure there’s much to see here.


#357

Has this not been this the observation for a long time now, that SF very effectively moved in on where FF were traditionaly strong in garnering votes over 10 years ago and have been building ever since, if you merged todays SF/FF numbers you might get old FF numbers wise and that’s that, does Mary Lou have the makings of a modern Haughey? :slight_smile:


#358

I’d like to take it with some evidence.


#359

While I’m not concerned about the issue per se, other than how it might have skewed or nonvoter, and maybe there isn’t anything to see here but to add to the pot, do you have a link to the source of those numbers for further reference?


#360

Why? Why worry so much? Maybe you think there might be, even a kernel of truth buried in such non-sensical ramblings? Do you?


#361

http://www.irelandelection.com/


#362

Because if there was, I’d be delighted to know. An actual financial connection between the EU and SF. A conspiracy between May and the EU. I’d be enthralled if there was actual evidence.


#363

That’s a great site. Thanks.