GFC 2.0 ? or not?


#21

Huge 5% rally

US stock markets rally after pre-Christmas slump - bbc.co.uk/news/business-46690452


#22

So not a speculative bubble. No way. No sirree


#23

Why do you think there is a speculative bubble, and how do you define such a thing?

2018 has seen somewhat of a return to normality. Stimulus tapering, interest rates being dragged off the floor, volatility returning, expensive tech stocks getting a disproportionate beating. We’re not near historical normality, but it’s difficult to know what represents normality given the long term decline in inflation and interest rates.

The analysts I read have been predicting low returns from stocks for the next few years, however that may manifest itself in short term movements.

Still a lot of zombie companies around though, and investors not understanding the meaning of “junk”.


#24

I don’t know, down 600 points tonight. Nothing fundamental happening these days. Has this sort of volatility been seen before.

30%+ jump in the DJIA between the Trump election and the end of 2017. 35% in a little over a year for God’s sake. Again, little in the fundamentals to back this up. Jobs figures look good, but what about job security? Phenomenal levels of debt being carried by the US. Massive military spending. Good luck riding that buck.


#25

macrobusiness.com.au/2019/0 … uary-2019/


#26

moodysanalytics.com/-/media … -rally.pdf


#27

investopedia.com/articles/i … matter.asp


#28

Yeah, as I’ve posted before we’re at the tail end of decades of falling interest rates. Capitalism has eaten itself.

Anyway…

“So what explains the flash crash? Cole concedes that Apple’s revenue announcement was a catalyst simply because the market is worried about Chinese growth, but mostly it had to do with “unusually shallow markets”. Local Japanese investors are still on holiday (the stock market is closed through tomorrow), and the moves happened at a time when trading is typically quiet”

ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/01/03/ … h-crash–/


#29

Yeah I think some of the scale involved in the large ups and downs recently have been due to ‘shallow’ markets. It has been quite volatile for alot longer than the holidays though. Moodys are predicting a bit of a slowdown but no recession in the US anyway, they talk about Trumps stimulus money only reaching some parts of government now and being spent over the next few months which will boost or mask falls in GDP.


#30

Well I guess we’ll find out if there really is a bubble, because bubbles are easy to pop.

I think not.

A weird thing about modern capitalism is that you’d expect growth in emerging markets, but who is capturing the profits from that growth? Is it showing up in profits of US multinationals?

It’s amazing that something like half of Apple’s revenues are from the US, when the US has only a tiny fraction of the world’s population.


#31

More storm warnings:


#32

Lagarde again: Let’s read between the lines - “Storm” i.e. batting back Trump “Calm before the Storm Comment”, they’re brewing their own storm and who is that?

The “lighting” bolt analogy is more than that, it is for those with eyes to see, the lighting bolt is incredibly powerful symbol used throughout western culture (think depictions of lighting blasting the primordial soup) which is a veiled reference to Satan. So this clarifies the sides, no?

You also have to keep in mind that before Trump was elected, the opposing power projected big-time with what looked like a claim that Trump was comparable or was Satan himself, it was an attempted deep spiritual attack when in fact it was also to signal to Trump (and those with eyes to see etc. etc.) they knew he was not part of that gang and this was ironically an abomination to them and their worldly view. The attack was levelled from more than one pundit but you can see here Maher fell into line and was also on message:

To my way of seeing that’s looks like a ringing endorsement of which side TPTB consider Trump to be on using projection as a form of deception.

Glazed over yet?

The stakes are big folks and you are being told right to your face, tremendous stakes here but thankfully
Trump loves big stakes, the biggest… so let’s see the US President has a lot of power to appoint a lot of key people, not just the Supreme Court justices (RBG… what’s the hold up?), Trump has the power to appoint not only the Head of the Federal Reserve but also the seven governors (14 year terms no less!).

Trump also has the power to appoint the President of the World Bank!

Yea a “abrupt…surprise”… maybe it becomes clearer why Trump has been the non-stop target of full spectrum demonisation launched from all global media and political assets across the world.

Simply put, a lot of people didn’t want him near these very important points of power, they had plans, he wasn’t in their plans dam it!

Think back, it was supposed to be around 2018 as outlined in 1988 economist cover of a global currency crash a new one world currency rising out of the flames of Chaos. Looks like their 2012 Olympics mass ritual didn’t do the trick wha! *So why haven’t things crashed yet? *

Trump.

The TPTB lost control of their carefully crafted global command economy when Trump was elected and have since had to re-group, re-strategise to push on with a now greater unexpected challenge to their plans.

Put this is a Irish context, and then a personal context for when the fallout happens.

Which side are we on / are you depending on - what star has Ireland hitched it’s wagon too?

Since it looks like we could be back to gold in the hand is (soon) worth a billion cryptos in the wallet, shot-gun and beans territory.

2019 - churning gurgling, bloating, gas and some more unexpected evacuations but as we get closer to 2020 which is the US presidential election they do now want Trump to win at-all-costs, things surely will become way more fraught than anything you have ever witnessed before. Imagine that.

Finally - One point that comes as a thematic notable, can anyone remember the last time the global media and institutions so resoundingly got together to clearly signal a global crash ahead of time?

As to much sweetness and concern, I sincerely don’t remember this in the lead up pre-2008 - it was after all the very opposite summed up by “soft landing” output until too late, so tell me what happened to all the Black Swans? :angry:

Trump? :smiley:


#33

Or it could be a bit like Met Eireann. Weather fear porn addiction ahoy

independent.ie/irish-news/storm-warnings-are-not-a-lot-of-hot-air-says-met-ireann-after-claims-that-it-is-alarmist-37657545.html


#34

The biggest problem with Met Eireann’s warnings is that they use political boundaries instead of geographic locations (which actually cover the affected area), for example, coastal storms in county Galway will not affect Ballinasloe yet the whole county gets a red weather warning!

The same could be said for warnings of impending economic doom.


#35

businessinsider.com.au/auto … ?r=US&IR=T

A new record


#36

Do they keep a metric for Wage Growth according to the various sections of the population. If they did I’d bet it show’s it doesn’t keep up with in Inflation.

Consumerism has replaced Christianity as the main religion of the West. It’s central tenet is that you’ve always got to get the newest bling, because you’re worth it - even if you can’t afford it, so borrow for it.

If GFC 2.0 happens the only way to fix it will be to Helicopter drop money on the masses and figure out how to get Wage inflation greater than product inflation continually. Either that or change to economic system that depends on growth.


#37

#38

smh.com.au/business/the-eco … 510qs.html


#39

Dr Doom is on fire here in this clip.


#40

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/07/roubini-global-recession-coming-draft/

I think the below comment nails it

Dr Doom may be calling it now but he simply joins a large cohort who’ve been saying the same for some time. And he’s wrong about the causes. Trade or no trade war, it’s coming. Huge post-GFC stimulus has caused all major economies’ cycles to become synchronised and we are simply arriving at the end of the next debt cycle – together. There’s not much more to it than that.

Total global debt at GFC: $140 trillion.
Total global debt right now: $250 trillion

Gunna be one for the ages.