GFC 2.0 ? or not?


Ultra-low/negative rates aren’t working. U-turn on the cards?


What do you think might be the next economic crisis?


Ireland’s Net International Investment Position maybe not be a cause but it’ll certainly be a major part of the problem. For us at least. Not sure if this has been posted on here before but this is a very good video.

This external facing debt includes the country’s Government and Private debt and it looks like we are the worst in the world by some distance.


Best seller (#4) in Germany atm…

Authors interviewed here…


The first wave is about to hit.


GFC epic edition coming quick
The global credit machine is grinding to a halt.
The $2.6 trillion international bond market, where the worlds biggest companies raise money to fund everything from acquisitions to factory upgrades, came to a virtual standstill as the coronavirus spreads fear through company boardrooms.
In the U.S., Wall Street banks recorded their third straight day without any high-grade bond offerings, a rarity outside of holiday and seasonal slowdowns. European debt bankers had their first day of 2020 without a deal on Wednesday. And bond issuance in Asia, where the virus first emerged, has slowed to a trickle.


Investors have pulled over $4 billion from high-yield bond ETFs in the past week, after pouring about $13.4 billion into the funds in the last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The biggest U.S. junk-bond fund — BlackRock Inc.’s $15.2 iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF, ticker HYG — posted record outflows of nearly $1.6 billion on Tuesday.
U.S. junk-bond funds are on track to see their biggest outflows in more than six months as investors pull back from risky assets amid deepening concerns about the spread of the coronavirus and its economic fallout. The primary market was frozen for a third straight day on Wednesday as issuers assess volatility. Combined with rising risk premiums on U.S. junk bonds, ETF investors are tapping out.


Helicopter money in Hong Kong and Macau

Total carnage this week. Buckle up/lock yourself in. It’s going to be rough.


Aussie stocks in free-fall. Crikey!


Thought it was bad when oil hit the $40s last week. With the coronavirus news looking bad I thought it might even hit the $30s next week. Now with the Saudi-Russia thing it looks like the $20s. I’ve long used the oil price as a single number indicator of how the world economy is doing. Gotta hope the indicator is broken this week.


I’m seeing the ASX All Ords down 7% and Nikkei down 6%. Gonna be a fun day/week. :ninja:


Except when it headed for $100 a barrel in summer 2008 before the GFC, Lehmans etc.


The markets are having a canary! Market breakers being set off, biggest losses since Lehmans.


Yeah DJIA opens up 1,500 points 6% down in sympathy with others. No doubt we see some rallying later.

Heard earlier that for context Black Monday 1987 was -12% in a day. DJIA has shed about 20% since 21st Feb


So is everyone prepared?


Educated people are denying the shit storm coming big time on polish forum.

I felt last few weeks like in this scene, especially after the little crash and bounce back:

I wonder did we just passed the ’ Return to “normal” ’ 2. peak?


Markets are so overcomplicated at this stage, anything is possible. We did not have a massive outbreak in US yet!
“how low could you go?”
20k ? 15k ?

There is a lot of space there for correction without even including COVID. The amount of money FED pumped recently into the patient is so big, normal people can’t even imagine this. No wonder Putin decided to strike now.

I don’t think anybody can be really prepared for this except the guys who had stacks of cash to make a short on this.


For the nerds on the pin



Dow Jones is currently within 1,000 points of unwinding all of the gains it made during the Trump presidency:

7/11/2016: 18,848
18/3/2020: 19,756