Gloomy times for Irish banks

SBP - Richard Curran

Some very interesting remarks by this mystery banker.

The government will not be able to stop the repossessions.
I’m reckoning at least between 5,000 and 10,000 per annum between 2009/2010 on the back of the fallout in employment of the construction, the only thing that will slow it down is the court system, which will not be able to cope.

This bit will come as disappointing news to the extreme bearish wing on this forum.

The bearish wing see Ireland being able to create jobs…

…just not as many as are lost!

That is probably quite true.

However, what I would class as the extreme bearish wing - and I wouldn’t include you in it, for the record - don’t even acknowledge ANY good news whatsover. There are people that post in the job losses thread that quite honestly seem to delight in every piece of news of redundancies, while offering ZERO solutions.

I don’t understand the mentality myself, but it certainly does exist on this forum.

I expect that Ireland will continue to create home-grown sustainable export-oriented jobs at the same rate - i.e practically none.

The jobs which rely on massive borrowing (i.e. construction) - nope.

The jobs which rely on tax breaks to multinationals - nope.

The jobs which rely on the internal irish market (i.e. retail, banks) - nope.

The jobs which rely on the tax-take from the above (public sector) - nope.

Managed to get myself a copy of the Sindo here (being paddy’s weekend and all). I noticed that there were quite a few references to the stability of Irish banks speckled throughout many of the articles in the business section. This drip, drip, drip of snippet after snippet is putting ideas in people’s minds.

The dripping is turning in to a steady flow…
**
Anglo down over 10%

Meanwhile, everybody’s busy waving tri-colours on O’Connell Street. I wonder to they realise how much today is going to cost them in terms of their pension funds?

Oh, and our finance minister is busy trying to find the factor 40 on some beach in Malaysia.**

Puh-lease. The morning news is grim enough without imagining our very own tame orca beached.

Not strictly true, HBOS is the bank in England that is suffering most. HSBC is only down 3.5%ish (as far as my 15 minutes delayed quotes show!).

To me it looks like a bank has been picked in each market that is the weakest in the herd. All very darwinian. First they eat their young (VIEs), then they pick on the sick and the old.

What happens next? They form packs and change their diet (they start dismembering companies).

Phew, for a moment there I thought Biffo would have to ring up the air corps and get them to air-lift him back to Dublin

Anglo down 14% now. The market is selling UK mortgage banks, Investment banks (perticularly UBS) and Anglo Irish. So far, the market is being reasonably rational.

The Cessnas are being tanked up as we speak…

Anglo down 23% now. I presume that all the senior people are away and cannot issue reassuring comments. Perhaps they are all at the parade?

This is foreigners selling Anglo. Irish people are all off enjoying them selves. I’m only working cause I’m greedy. :blush:
It does look seriously like confidence has been lost in Anglo. We’ve had a bank failure in the UK, then US. And now it looks very much like we’re gonna have one here.

Per Ftalphaville, Alliance & Leicester the biggest FTSE faller. Off 11.6%.

Where are people getting the 23% drop for Anglo from?
All I see is the 14% drop- on the ISE website. (i.e. down to 7.050)
EDIT: updated now… I see.

I’m wondering how safe my cash in Anglo is - I’m getting close to the 20,000 on their 7% Saver account…

As I said elsewhere, I expect there to be a bank failure in each market. The weakest bank (i.e. the one least likely to be bailed out by the central bank) will be stuffed. If this is the EOTWAWKI, then more will follow. The central banks will organise bailouts based on the strongest banks in each market, so I woud expect in Ireland, BoI and AIB will be used to bail out the other banks - private bailout guaranteed by the state. The Fed has provided the model with Bear Stearns.

Gloomy? Moi? You haven’t heard the language I’m using looking at the screen!

And today’s supposed to be a “quiet day”.

I’d say there’s a lot of high net worth RaboPaddys with the profits from their property portfolios being put into those 6-7% deposit accounts that Anglo offer. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if financial advisors all over the country are ringing up RaboPaddies on their mobiles all over Ireland right now (yes, on Paddies day) advising them to give their 7-day notice NOW, because in seven days’ time, God only knows where their deposit will be.

The safest place for your money right now is €500 notes in your mattress, Swiss banks and maybe one of the more conservative UK or German banks.