If CO2 is such an evil, why do we keep allowing Coca Cola and beer companies pack their products full of it? Instead of stamping down on hydrocarbons maybe it would be better just tell Coca Cola and Pepsi on your bike sonny
Ireland used to be an exception to all these trends. We had exceptionally high fertility rates, very large families and large net migration.
We still have the youngest population in Ireland but things are changing rapidly and policy makers seem blind to the implications. The government’s long-range vision is embodied in the National Planning Framework 2040, launched with great fanfare earlier this year, but discussion of demographic changes - the fundamental parameter for national planning - was limited to constant repetition of “an extra million people” . I assume no Minister wanted to say how many of these additional residents would be migrants although that will be the main driver because the Irish baby boomers (i.e. born in the 1970s, long after the Anglo-American baby boom) have almost finished child-bearing.
The official CSO projections are below but they are based on statistics up to 2011 and the fertility rate has now declined markedly compared to the post-crash years, perhaps because of much improved job opportunities . The CSO’s lowest assumption is that fertility will decline to 1.8 by 2026 and remain constant thereafter but fertility is already down to 1.8 and the annual number of births is down by over 20%, from 77K. in 2010 to an estimated 62K. this year. Now that the most fertile age group (early 30s) is declining, the number of births is bound to decline.
Emigration used to be the main constant in Irish demographics but now net immigration is the great imponderable. As the CSO report says of migration
Immigration peaked at 150 K in a single year (2007) and then collapsed to 40K two years later. We reverted to our tradition of net emigration for a few years but net immigration has been rising rapidly in the past four years and is estimated at 34K this year, already exceeding the highest assumption in the CSO report. Of course, even on the PIN, there can be no discussion of migration because it immediately turns into an argument about racism.
The key point is that migration guarantees our population growth will reflect our overall economic development, especially job opportunities for migrants. Brexit and Trump could put a spanner in our works but otherwise it is reasonable to assume our economy will move in line with the Single Market i.e. non-EU migrants will be the main source of variability because good times here will coincide with good times elsewhere in the EU, and vice-versa.
In short, I expect the “million extra people” by 2026, largely driven by net migration which means it is highly vulnerable to an economic shock. The inability of successive Irish governments to ensure a stable housing market and an adequate health service means that continued economic prosperity will result in an ongoing housing crisis in Dublin and a health service overwhelmed by demand, regardless of the money thrown at it.
I think that 2007 is important for another reason, it too I believe the peak of eastern european immigrants on the move. The trend is now going in reverse with less inclined to move as home economies improve.
Plus I reckon a good chunk of that 34K are returning Irish emigrants, myself included. Although I’m abroad in england again for a short stint it is interesting to note here that immigrant shortages are common too from the traditional non-EU sources. I was chatting with an Indian man who’d spent 50 years in England who now says the flow is going in reverse as India is providing better opportunities and more importantly he stressed respect for his grandkids.
I fully expect horror stories to emanate from Britain in the coming years of nursing home neglect on the scale of the Romanian orphanages. What’s not countered in the talk of immigrants that an abundance can become a scarcity that all western nations will be competing against eachother for.
Even that great homogeneous immigration holdout Japan has opened up in last decade.
migrationpolicy.org/article … mmigration
25% of couples in thirties are “sexless”
I don’t generally think about these things but the Sunday Telegraph had a full page article about how pornography and Internet dating were actually reducing sexual activity in the youth and this has knock on effects into 30s…because they could have anyone, they end up having no-one. The paradox of choice.
Too many people see the apparent “perfection” on the internet, so look for that and reject all flawed specimens and then find there’s no one left!
Well, perfection on the internet beats fatness. Look back at 1990 in Ireland. Everyone looked poorer and less well groomed. But they were skinny and had a bit of energy and they all drove Opel Kadett hatchbacks ! It really was DDR like in a way
The last time I saw so many bangers was at a barbecue.
There’s definitely poor lifestyle choices playing a part. It came up in testimony during the abortion referendum that rates of still births was much higher in obese women. I believe sperm count was also lower for obese men.
I have friends/extended family members in that situation, mainly female. Attractive, decent jobs but in their 30’s now and no sign of a long-term partner because the constant search for perfection means they’ll not settle for an ‘average’ guy. Sometimes you just got to suck it up and settle down with someone who’s not going to murder you in your sleep or empty your bank account when your not looking!
Some girls just want road frontage!
Edit to add years ago when I lived in Kilkenny I was out with farmer friends and a girl cracked onto one of them and all I could hear her asking him was how many cows, dairy or cattle, acreage, yield etc… They were both pretty serious about farming, married with kid within three years of meetings. Langtons nightclub was often called The Mart!
That’s what the ‘manosphere’ and evolutionary psychology calls hypergamy - women want a partner who has more status than them. They have half an eye on trading up, until they finally decide.
And the Huffington Post/Sandberg propaganda is that career success will a woman bring happiness. But in order to rise up the corporate ladder you can’t be too “nice”. She gets her middle management job, beats a few men…But the higher status men she might date typically want an attractive, younger partner, niceness being a bonus.
The ratio of women to men going to university continues to increase, the number of young men dropping out watching porn and playing computer games increases (they fail at the status seeking, or know they’ll fail and don’t even bother). And you have more and more young women seeking high status males like athletes and whoring for attention on social media…attention being given by the failures of men who have no status.
There…I just saved you ever having to read anything in the ‘manosphere’
The Economist says that Prime Minister Abe’s plans to deal with Japan’s demographic crisis are not enough in a society where deaths exceed births by around 400,000 each year and where half of babies born today can expect to live to 100 years of age. Apart from the obvious solution - importing migrant… ahh… guest workers - he is also making it more attractive for women to return to work after child birth.
We won’t face Japan’s problems here - we have a strong inflow of migrants, working or otherwise, and we have the HSE to limit life expectancy
You have to remember that the Japanese do 90 better than we do 90.
They eat less processed food and saturated fat. They tend to sleep at floor level. And having to get up off the floor every morning is great functional exercise.
For anyone elderly or just old and overweight a good test is how many times they can get down to lying position and up to standing without holding on to furniture etc.
Doctors should prescribe yoga and turkish get-ups.
I once took an overnight train across China. Seeing the elderly climb into the top bunk was surprising. I put the strength and agility down to the fact they use squat toilets.
And probably the fact that in early life they were far more physically active than their modern counterparts.
It’s already an established trend that life expectancy is declining in some western economies, although the causes are multiple but I’ve no doubt that a sedentary lifestyle is a major contributing factor.
Life expectancy at birth in Ireland is now 81.8 years although as recently as 1990 it was only 74.8 years, a full seven years less.
I believe the improvement is primarily due to better housing (central heating, double-glazing, better hygiene with modern toilets & kitchens, hot water on tap, washing machines), more generous pensions (thanks Bertie ) and lifestyle improvements (less smoking, more exercise) but some element of this improvement is surely attributable to the healthcare industry.
I heard the Taoiseach on Marian recently credit the HSE with this improvement in life expectancy. Did she challenge his medical expertise on this vital issue ? Can anyone tell us what share of HSE expenditure goes on the elderly? I suspect it is close to 80% and that’s why no-one will say. Most people live with serious health problems for the last few years of their lives. The risk is that we will increase life expectancy without increasing the length of our healthy, active lives.
ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistic … statistics
Also in Ireland up to 1990 there were still many suffering the ravages of the pre vaccination age. I think in the 1950s in the USA Polio was considered the biggest public fear after nuclear war.