Goodbody Stockbrokers: Construction stocks to avoid

Anyone familiar with stockbroker double speak should able to discern what Goodbody are saying here.

rte.ie/business/2007/morning … odbody.pdf

edit

Some pretty frank assessment from both Davys and Goodbodys today on the Irish housing market.

Davys

rte.ie/business/2007/morning … 29davy.pdf

Goodbodys

rte.ie/business/2007/morning … odbody.pdf

From the Davy’s piece:

Stress test schmest test.

What do they mean by “(not us)”? Are they still convinced everything in the garden will be rosy and a negative mom result for December will just cause the rest of us to go into a tizzy of misplaced excitement?

Thats ESB and they are gonna get some stick about it.

About construction stocks and the house market. Currently most brokers have a buy on those stocks above. I would be nervous about CRH but the others i think can absorb a slow down in the market. Remember flats in finglas plummeting in value will not have an effect on those stocks above.

totally disagreeing with you here, stocks driven an awful lot by sentiment, the whole random walk plus shocks idea.
Irish firms in property will be priced on the low side if property prices turn here in ireland, simple as that.
There may be value to be had if the companies are linked to infracstructure, but sentiment will have huge -ve affects…

short anything remotedly geo stuck or linked to us markets…(like crh and your house…, also grafton…)

yes and no. example c&c. price fell below 11 because of sentiment but the long term prospects (up over 11 now) were good enough to ride out any such nervousness in the market.

Thats my opinion anyway. Just because you may want the construction sector to fail in a property crash the percentages risks each of these companies have to the irish property market is not significant to affect them in the long term.

I could and may be wrong but thats just my analysis.

Seems i was right. Kingspan and Grafton rose this week. Never mix emotions with investment decisions.

But i wil add. These have now nearly topped. Too much liquidity chasing too few stocks.

wait and see, enron rose before their crash, what does that mean…

nothing…random walks with trends…watch it trending down.
sentiment and emotions are all about investing…look to fama, to buffet, to lynch, to game theory and behavioural finance, its an interesting area that you might like…light reading :wink:

Davys

rte.ie/business/2007/morning … 29davy.pdf

Moreover, as we predicted some time ago, another institution is to shortly follow RBS and offer loans over a 40-year term, which will no doubt prompt others to follow. Sure why stop there when you can always pass it onto the kids?

Remind anybody of Japan pre crash?

common stocks and intelligent investor are a better read.

I have moved this thread to the Central Bank,

thepropertypin.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=19

Its seems more fitting.

Well given that the largest companies in Ireland by market capitalisation (mil.) are:

Diageo 39.040
Tesco 31.114
AIB 20.210
Bank of Ireland 17.458
CRH 17.373
Anglo Irish Bank 12.159
Ryanair 12.29
Irish Life & Permanent 5.96
Tullow Oil 4.392
Kerry Group 3.714
Kingspan 3.478
C&C 3.884

,one can see quite clearly that the Irish economy is driven primarily by construction, borrowing and consumption.

Where are the tech companies? We might have Trintech, Iona, Datalex, etc., but they’re a drop in the ocean compared to what’s really driving this wonderful economy of ours here in Ireland.

You’ve broken the quotes system!!! :open_mouth: