Goodbody tells it like it is.

rte.ie/business/2008/morning … odbody.pdf

Good to see a bit of truth out there. So what if Biffo decides to try to buy the empties off the developers. What does this do to the second hand market? I’d be pretty shitless if I was trying to flog my home in the hope of trading up which surely freezes the chain as much as anything else.
(Between this and the energy rating coming into effect I feel we could see a bit of capitulation coming down the line)

18 months worth of supply at current sales rates and that’s just the second hand homes on the market!

How many more new homes are also for sale? Where would that additional number put the unsold inventory?

At a guess, given the current transaction rates we are looking at over two years worth of unsold stock current being actively advertised for sale, with more coming to market daily and with a significant amount more temporally sitting on the sidelines, either shunted into the rental sector, ready for sale and mothballed or just part completed.

And don’t forget, that based on reports, there are even more properties out there, including those with second hand homes they want to sell who are not yet putting them on the market in hope of a price recovery and still more who are being advised against placing the property by EA’s.

Blue Horseshoe

Current sales rate doesn’t mean much as hardly anybody is buying right now.

2006 sales rates didn’t mean much either as that was just frenzied madness.

It’s hard to know what would be a “normal” sales rate in this crazy boom-bust market of ours. Anybody hazard a guess?

Interesting that Goodbodys are taking stats from daft.ie. I’ve seen this a few times in mainstream media that daft.ie stats are being used. I never hear any mention of myhome.ie any more either with regard to harvesting stats, or just even as general talk about the site/brand. Looks like their attempts to prevent people gathering info from the site may have backfired.