Grafton on Irish housing market

ft.com/cms/s/0/7c72315a-bb1e-11dc-9fbc-0000779fd2ac.html

So we need more rental units as 15%+ of the stock being empty is not sufficient. Nor are record levels of rental inventory, slowing rental inflation etc. :confused:

daftwatch.atspace.com/

So what Tom Parlon should really be doing is targeting investors, and leaving the FTB’s to rent.

All this “strong rental demand” is but pure speculative hearsay. Unfortunately, Ireland being the way it is, there are no solid economic data available to construction entrepreneurs on which they can draw meaningful conclusions and lower their risk. Banking on “solid rental demand” is a jump into the abyss. Sure, you might get lucky. I doubt it though – there are a lot of naive and arrogant people who made money (many of whom were lucky enough to live through the most extraordinary boom) who think that their success is due to their astuteness and business acumen.

There’s a global economic tidal wave about to implode. All my peers dumped their equity portfolios about 2 weeks ago. Meanwhile, RaboPaddy is thinking about flats in the arse-end of Dublin 2, when he should be thinking about how to protect the money he has made over the last 10 years – i.e. Swiss Francs, commodities, plus maybe some Asian stocks. (Don’t forget to have a few gold bars + a revolver in your floor safe. Oh and don’t forget the solar panels which’ll come in useful once marshal law takes over!)

What were you told about your tin foil hat. :wink:

But being serious for a second, just because we are facing economic uncertainty, there is no reason to be dumping portfolios, surely solar generation stocks, food produce related stocks - Glanbia, John Deere, that sort of thing, could be worth a flutter, consumer luxury goods are a bit of a no no though.
Obviously i wouldn’t be tying up too much of my cash in them, but I also don’t believe the economic sky is falling although we are in for quite a storm.

Have a listen to the Financial Sense Newshour for January 5 2008.
Probably worth downloading to your mp3 player for the journey to work.
I’ve only listened to the 3rd hour so far, but they give their outlook from an American point of view.

financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

The market is being flooded with rental property.
Oct 2006 there were 8 - 12 properties for rent in this area on Daft.
daft.ie/searchrental.daft?s% … ype=rental

This state of affairs continued at least til mid 2007 cause I was helping friends from work get a place in the area and I spent countless hours browsing Daft. I remember it clearly as one of the girls I was helping started crying after 3 months of trying to get some place. She figured she just wouldn´t be able to get a place.

Now there are 36 in Just this small area and there is a whole 520 apartment block just sitting there (unsold) and numerous empty (unsold) apartments in my place.
At the time apartments to rent in my place were like gold dust cause of the stuid prices and high rental demand. Now I count three that have been sitting for a few weeks.

daft.ie/searchrental.daft?search=1&s[cc_id]=ct1&s[a_id]=224&s[mnp]=&s[mxp]=&s[bd_no]=&s[search_type]=rental&s[refreshmap]=1&limit=10&search_type=rental&id=517366
daft.ie/searchrental.daft?search=1&s[cc_id]=ct1&s[a_id]=224&s[mnp]=&s[mxp]=&s[bd_no]=&s[search_type]=rental&s[refreshmap]=1&offset=20&limit=10&search_type=rental&id=512253
daft.ie/searchrental.daft?search=1&s[cc_id]=ct1&s[a_id]=224&s[mnp]=&s[mxp]=&s[bd_no]=&s[search_type]=rental&s[refreshmap]=1&offset=20&limit=10&search_type=rental&id=520894

And also one for rent by the builders who couldn´t sell them here…
daft.ie/searchrental.daft?search=1&s[cc_id]=ct1&s[a_id]=224&s[mnp]=&s[mxp]=&s[bd_no]=&s[search_type]=rental&s[refreshmap]=1&offset=30&limit=10&search_type=rental&id=518409

Oh and don´t forget that one of the above has already dropped their price by 75 euros and still no take up. Thanks to Verbatim for his list of rental drops.

Like McDonalds cuntomers “I´m lovin it” :smiley:

I, and many others would beg to differ.

Interesting perspective CelloPoint.
Is this based on the delayed effects of credit being withdrawn from the system? The depression took a couple of years to materialise after the 1929 crash. We haven’t had our 1929 crash - yet.
I’m not sure I entirely agree, though, as the oil producers have shown that there is liquidity looking for a home (e.g., Citibank refinancing at 11% by Dubai fund). Also, helicopter Ben will ensure liquidity is available.
As such, i fear more for inflation, and think cash could be problem in the medium term. However with commodities and gold at record highs, it’s not clear if there’s value there…

rte.ie/business/2010/0106/grafton.html

irishtimes.com/newspaper/bre … aking7.htm

nytimes.com/reuters/2010/01/ … afton.html