Green REIT / Hibernia REIT (new Irish REITs)


#41

Wow. First REIT promoter audited out of Kilkenny small practice I’d wager
They did a lot of work for NAMA with such a small endeavour. Must be like the SAS of property…they’re clearly that good.


#42

Which part?


#43

What’s your point? That shares which increase in value should be shunned?


#44

My point was that despite all the speculation on this thread, the only actual evidence which exists regarding REITs in Ireland is that one floated at a value of €1.00 and is now at €1.20. Hardly a doomsday scenario. If I had invested in that REIT from the outset, I wouldn’t be disappointed. All investments are speculative to one degree or another. Comparing it to Bitcoin is a farrago.


#45

Bally Boy / LuckyMe1 lets summarise the three pages for you and let you judge the ‘irony’

  1. You started that Hibernia REIT has Irish property heavyweights who have transacted ‘billions and billions’?
  2. To make up for 1. you then pitched Ireland was such a no-brainer (follow Blackstone), didn’t need experience just a REIT platform?
  3. To make up 1. and 2. you then pitched buying property in Ireland and Africa are the same (don’t need Irish investing experience)?
  4. You then acknowledged the Green REIT price ‘could be’ artificially high and that this ‘could be’ by design (we both know this answer)?
  5. Your final pitch is that despite:
    5.1 Lack of proven auditable relevant successful Irish real estate investing experience in Hibernia REIT
    5.2 The fact that the ‘smart’ players with 5.1 (i.e. Blackstone/Apollo/Loanstar) are scaling back in Ireland (outside mega deals)
    5.3 The fact that Irish commercial real estate pricing is not compensating for risks undertaken (true debt-to-GDP close to Greece)
    ;through some impending ‘passports for REIT shares’ scheme demand will support the price anyway so just buy

In fairness your last argument is the only one that might stack up - perhaps that should be on the prospectus.
I’m with Barney however that is you are looking to invest on pure momentum, there are better options.


#46

I am not here to defend Hibernia REIT per se but the idea of REITs in Ireland. It seems de rigeur to knock the whole idea around them without looking at (a) the actual evidence of the one existing REIT and (b) the full potential surrounding them. Instead, posters on here, particularly you it must be said, have spent the entire thread engaging in ad hominem arguments against members of the board of Hibernia.

Let me address the issues as you put them:-

  1. I am not Luckyme1. That person has a bizarre habit of deleting their own posts. I don’t delete my posts and wouldn’t be so sloppy as to suggest that Hibernia had been involved in transacting “billions and billions”. I have no way of disproving that I am not that poster so you’re just going to have to take my word for it. I just registered on here today.

  2. See 1 above. There are very few investments that are a no brainer. Those that are would probably involve some sort of insider dealing. Nut that goes for all investments.

  3. See 1 above. Africa? Wtf?

  4. Of course the share price could be artificially high. All I am going on is the actual share price of the only REIT to exist in this country and I am amazed that all those who are critical of the idea of a REIT have refused to acknowledge this. Just because I acknowledged that the share price could be high doesn’t necessarily make it so.

5 (1) You seem to think investing in property is rocket science. Many of those involved in property speculation are quite stupid. Some got lucky and got out before the bust. Many of those in the industry, such as estate agents, have no qualifications whatsoever to suggest that they know anything more than the rest of us so I think you’re creating a mythical science to property investment. You then dismiss people who have actually achieved quite alot in their career, such as Terence O’Rourke, on the basis that they’re not part of the mythology. O’Rourke is unlikely to be there for his “real estate experience” and I’d imagine he’s there for his accounting/tax experience and contacts in those fields. These are necessary attributes for any board.

5 (2) Just because other players are leaving the market doesn’t mean everything is doomed. Ireland is a small market which may not be of interest to the big players. We don’t have many foreign insurance companies in Ireland but that doesn’t stop the indigenous ones making not just profits, but super profits. Again see my reply to 4. The only evidence which exists to date, without the potential influx of non-EU money as the poliicy has yet to be announced, of actual trading REITs in Ireland is positive.

5 (3) Remember, investing in a REIT is not just about the share price, it’s also about the dividend. 85% of the rents must be returned to the shareholders by way of dividend by law. My point is that those non-EU investors can afford to take a hit in the share price if it means residency for their famiilies and, ultimately, an EU passport. What will sustain them is the dividend over the five years. In my view, this will lead to speculative investment in REITs which is what raises share prices.

We’ll have to agree to disagree. The proof will come in 12 months from now so we should probably re-open this thread at that point.


#47

Would you put Patrick Neary or John Hurley on the Board of the Hibernia REIT - did they not also achieve a lot in their careers rising to the top of their respective professions like Terrence O’Rourke. Unlike Terrence (or his friend at Irish Nationwide, Danny Kitchen), Pat and John only cost of a couple of million in wages and pensions for the destruction that they oversaw to our financial system. Terrence got paid much much more than that in fees, and in particular his firms multi-decade oversight of the disastrous and utterly corrupt Irish Nationwide (and others). If he his there for his accounting/tax experience then who is going to check the accounts?

Terrence O’Rourke (and Danny Kitchen) on the Board of a quoted Irish Property REIT in the post-crash era - to coin your earlier phrase, we must be in an ‘irony free’ zone.

Why do we bother with all the endless form filling etc. that the Central Bank has introduced in financial services when the same characters can reappear again with impunity?

To refresh your memory:
brendanburgess.ie/34-2/articles-quoting-brendan-burgess/


#48

Maybe I am completely mid interpreting REITs but here goes anyway. Surely the key issue with this investment vehicle is that rental income isn’t taxed as long as it is paid out in dividends. Therefore there is a huge subsidy from the taxpayer, which in turn implies that any fool can make money from REITs no matter what their investment record.

A related issue is why the hell the taxpayer is subsidising these. Do we need more commercial property? Or new owners for the commercial property we have already? Surely subsidising this stuff isn’t a priority for a state which can’t afford to fund cancer care.


#49

As I understand it:
Corporation tax is avoided but the investors pay tax on the dividends received (personal rates - though pensions etc are different as they would be anyway) - just like a small time BTLer.

Forcing the REIT to pay out 80% or whatever means there’s less scope for other types of tax planning shenanigans/ Capital Gain


#50

Has anybody got their hands on Hibernia REIT prospectus ?.
Goodbody seem very hesitant in circulating prospectus even though the factsheet they sent states that investment should only be considered after consulting prospectus.
Is there something in there which they don’t want widely advertised before people commit their money ?.
Observations on same would be greatly appreciated.


#51

You could ask them for it?


#52

Easier to post the same question here and on boards.


#53

They are only providing it on request and am awaiting it.
However, I was expecting it end last week (following expressing interest in investing) but they sent me factsheet instead along with application to subscribe for investment even though factsheet recommended not investing until got prospectus.
In light of this, how did they expect me to invest without prospectus ?.
Also, won’t distribute it electronically as don’t want it widely disseminated.
Why ?
What is there to hide ?
Has anybody got prospectus and got any comments specific to it rather than general discussion re merits of investing in REITS/commercial property/irish economy etc


#54

#55

My ‘twisted logic’ on why the Hibernia REIT is a potential investment:

  1. Could the Hibernia REIT team + low experience really attract +125m of institutional investment into a ‘blind pool’?
  2. It is possible the State - who the Hibernia REIT team is connected with - is the (bulk of) the ‘stake’ money.
  3. Quoted REITs will be used to value the State’s 100bn in direct / indirect real estate exposure (esp. where it gives a higher number)
  4. They have a tiny daily transaction volume of c. 100k in trades (vs. the 100bn in exposure above)
  5. Therefore … there is a good chance that Hibernia REIT is going to trade above NAV for a time at least ?

PS - sublime Mantissa


#56

Is that not a function of all the available cash in the global economy chasing hard-to-get yields?
A similar (but bigger scale) conundrum to all the cash-rich investors snapping up cheap apartments.


#57

No, not a doomsday scenario, but likely a shitty investment if the premium is unwound to a normal reit yield. As an investor you are paying such a premium for the managers that elsewhere you describe as adding little value.


#58

Hey Guys.

First time poster, and brand new member. I’ve been following, or at least trying to follow the progress of Green, and now Hibernia. Does anyone know when Hibernia expects to list on the market? Furthemore, has anyone heard whether or not they hit their target number? If so, did they exceed it?

Where are Green shares trading at the moment? Will the two REIT’s not get into unendless bidding wars?


#59

I heard yesterday some anecdotal detail of one deal that Green have done. The Parnell Centre Car Park on Parnell St, consideration of €6,000,000 with an annual rent of €500,000. If accurate (which I doubt it is) that’s a much higher yield than has been assumed.


#60

It is hard to tell this one as they bid it in a larger portfolio.
General estimates are that it was done at about 6-6.2% (individual investors bid it a little harder as a single asset).
For a car park that is not a bad deal (should be about 1% above retail / office).
Again, at 30% premium on to this, it gets trickier.