In 2007 the Irish Government owed under 30% of GDP and around 30% of GNP and since then the debt has inexorably risen.
Today GNP is around €140bn and falling
Today GDP is around €160bn and static
Today Government debt ( ex Nama) is €90bn and rising
Today Government Debt ( including Nama) is around €103bn and rising
GNP is falling at a rate of 10% per annum and will be under €130bn by the end of 2011
At the end of 2011 Government debt ( ex Nama) will be €110bn and rising
At the end of 2011 Government debt ( including Nama) will be at least €130bn and rising
All of this excludes any further bank recapitalisations to those such as INBS or AIB who will be around with the bucket long before end 2011. Anglo is also excluded. I have no idea what that POS will cost us
All of this excludes the following.
Today the Irish Consumer owes €150bn on Mortgages or 116% of GNP
**By end of 2011 the total debt held by the Irish consumer on Mortgages and the Total debt of the Irish Government, ADDED TOGETHER will be at least 225% of GNP and Possibly 250% of GNP. **
In 1987 the sum total of Mortgage Debt and Government Debt Together NEVER Exceeded 150% of GNP.
Tut, tut. GDP includes both government and private sector.
Of course, what you’d need on the private side is for both state debt service (taxes), deficit reduction (taxes) and private sector debt reduction (interest and principal payments) to increase without that somehow reducing consumer spending… eh, incomium leviosa…
Some of it has, most of it (€20 billion-odd) hasn’t. If the government were able to throw €7 billion on it into Irish banks, then I’m sure there would be no problem buying Irish sovereign debt with its.