slasher
November 23, 2010, 2:33pm
#22
To paraphrase Oscar Wilde:independent.ie/national-news … 29934.html
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Des_Hanafin
p.s.
johnnyskeleton:
My predictions for her constituence:
Last year, she topped the polls with Barry Andrews coming in second on foot of her transfers. Eamon Gilmore (then not leader of Labour and then Labour being not particularly popular) came third, followed by Sean Barrett and then Ciaran Cuff (Green) narrowly beat Richard Boyd Barrett (People before profit
Dun Laoighre is an interesting constituency, being the most liberal in the country (one of only 2 or 3 to vote against the immigration referendum 2004) and has an almost textbook mix of ultra fancy places (blackrock, dalkey, killiney), working class places (ballybrack, sallynoggin, DL village) all surrounded by middle class estates of varying hues. It has a lot of floating voters and no particular allegances (other than perhaps to the Andrewsess).
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%C3%BAn_Laoghaire_(D%C3%A1il_%C3%89ireann_constituency)
This time round, Gilmore will almost certainly top the polls, perhaps with enough to bring his running mate (probably Oisin Quinn) over the line afterwards. Sean Barrett (FG) too has done well for himself and I would imagine that he can only make gains.
The really interesting thing is that I think Richard Boyd Barrett will get in this year. He just missed it last year, I can only assume he is becoming more popular with “people before profit” and whatnot, he appeals to working, middle and upper class because he is a bit posh (I think he is descended from Cyril Cusac or something) and does a lot of the local issues which middle class floating voters like. Also, the people who did vote Green the last time will probably split between Labour and PBP. Even a few votes could bring him over the line this year.
Thus, I think it could be a dogfight between Hanafin and Andrews (with possibly a second FG punter bringing up the rear). Hanafin could probably still win a seat outright, but Andrews has the legacy issues and is unlikely to step down. Thus, there could be a split vote between the two FF candidates. A good campaign by Labour and FG could see Mary lose her seat. It is also not entirely beyond the realms of possibility (though I doubt it as FG are a bit weak) that FF could lose both their seats here.
I think all the Dublin constituencies will be very interesting to watch in January, but DL could be a real battleground. Therefore, it gets the skeleton “one to watch” seal of approval.
I would say ‘impressive analysis’ but actually it’s a load of tripe for the simple reason that eh, DL is going to be a 4 seater this time around
johnnyskeleton:
My predictions for her constituence:
Last year, she topped the polls with Barry Andrews coming in second on foot of her transfers. Eamon Gilmore (then not leader of Labour and then Labour being not particularly popular) came third, followed by Sean Barrett and then Ciaran Cuff (Green) narrowly beat Richard Boyd Barrett (People before profit
Dun Laoighre is an interesting constituency, being the most liberal in the country (one of only 2 or 3 to vote against the immigration referendum 2004) and has an almost textbook mix of ultra fancy places (blackrock, dalkey, killiney), working class places (ballybrack, sallynoggin, DL village) all surrounded by middle class estates of varying hues. It has a lot of floating voters and no particular allegances (other than perhaps to the Andrewsess).
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%C3%BAn_Laoghaire_(D%C3%A1il_%C3%89ireann_constituency)
This time round, Gilmore will almost certainly top the polls, perhaps with enough to bring his running mate (probably Oisin Quinn) over the line afterwards. Sean Barrett (FG) too has done well for himself and I would imagine that he can only make gains.
The really interesting thing is that I think Richard Boyd Barrett will get in this year. He just missed it last year, I can only assume he is becoming more popular with “people before profit” and whatnot, he appeals to working, middle and upper class because he is a bit posh (I think he is descended from Cyril Cusac or something) and does a lot of the local issues which middle class floating voters like. Also, the people who did vote Green the last time will probably split between Labour and PBP. Even a few votes could bring him over the line this year.
Thus, I think it could be a dogfight between Hanafin and Andrews (with possibly a second FG punter bringing up the rear). Hanafin could probably still win a seat outright, but Andrews has the legacy issues and is unlikely to step down. Thus, there could be a split vote between the two FF candidates. A good campaign by Labour and FG could see Mary lose her seat. It is also not entirely beyond the realms of possibility (though I doubt it as FG are a bit weak) that FF could lose both their seats here.
I think all the Dublin constituencies will be very interesting to watch in January, but DL could be a real battleground. Therefore, it gets the skeleton “one to watch” seal of approval.
I would say ‘impressive analysis’ but actually it’s a load of tripe for the simple reason that eh, DL is going to be a 4 seater this time around
Admit I wasn’t paying attention when West Dublin stole their seat.
But it makes it even more interesting then. Could we have Gilmore A.N. Other Labour, RBB and Sean Barrett? i.e. is it beyond the realms of possibility that FF could go from 2 seats to 0 seats?
johnnyskeleton:
Admit I wasn’t paying attention when West Dublin stole their seat.
But it makes it even more interesting then. Could we have Gilmore A.N. Other Labour, RBB and Sean Barrett? i.e. is it beyond the realms of possibility that FF could go from 2 seats to 0 seats?
hopefully
Also, it makes it that much easier for Joe Higgins to get back in (not, given the economic situation and popular turnout for the EP, that he needs it to be easier). Makes it a bit harder to get rid of Lenny though.
AWAAF
November 23, 2010, 4:19pm
#27
GruttePier:
I have a lot of time for Richie Boyd Barrett. National (international) politics wise I am the complete opposite of him. But on local politics I support him. He did a great job with the ‘save our seafront’ in Dun Laoghaire. He is one of the few people I would vote for (if I was allowed to vote). Just to get some honesty into the system. That shows how deep politics in Ireland have sunk, because I would find his ideas re (inter)national politics ludicrous and naive.
I would say he is a cert given the economic circumstances, his local track record and the fact that he seems to have a strong charisma. Female OAPs in particular seem to love him.
ewd3
November 23, 2010, 4:43pm
#28
he should have a good shot as long as he avoids reading his poetry at people.
Honestly…
it’s
He’s done quite well to distance himself from the SWP who, even for a kind of pinko liberal like myself, are a scary, scary party.
ewd3:
AWAAF:
GruttePier:
I have a lot of time for Richie Boyd Barrett. National (international) politics wise I am the complete opposite of him. But on local politics I support him. He did a great job with the ‘save our seafront’ in Dun Laoghaire. He is one of the few people I would vote for (if I was allowed to vote). Just to get some honesty into the system. That shows how deep politics in Ireland have sunk, because I would find his ideas re (inter)national politics ludicrous and naive.
I would say he is a cert given the economic circumstances, his local track record and the fact that he seems to have a strong charisma. Female OAPs in particular seem to love him.
he should have a good shot as long as he avoids reading his poetry at people.
Honestly…
it’s
Think how good a diplomat he would be:
“Now bondholders, I give you the choice. Either you take a 90% discount on your bonds and continue to lend to us at 3% or [jarring organ chord]…tell me how good my poetry is.”
You find Trotskyist undergraduates frightening?
Yeah, don’t you? Some of the harshest regiemes in the world have fermented from radical student societies. The Taliban started as a student movement.
I know the reality is probably the (can’t remember the name of that sociology lecturer in UCD) woolly jumper style of commies, but on the other hand I would class them along similar lines as the Erigi etc. They are a bit fanatical and give the impression of some serious militant tendencies.
ewd3
November 23, 2010, 5:02pm
#33
he’s still a socialist worker
And they are very cultish
johnnyskeleton:
He’s done quite well to distance himself from the SWP who, even for a kind of pinko liberal like myself, are a scary, scary party.
I’m always been on the centre-left; a friend of mine who used to be hard-left in college but no longer would know RBB fairly well and say that he’s a lovely bloke, ignoring the politics. However, I’d have far more time for, say, the Socialist Party than the SWP, the latter being of the type of left too willing to get into bed with “anti-imperialists” no matter what their opinion - for example,
politics.ie/current-affairs/ … yelid.html
Needless to say, I thought the eventual bust-up that happened between the UK’s SWP and George Galloway’s RESPECT party was hilarious.
P.
That’s what I meant. He is still a socialist worker. But he doesn’t come across as such.
slasher
November 23, 2010, 5:22pm
#36
Residents against Racism is another benign sounding group that’s a front for the SWP
No I don’t find them frightening.
Kmher Rouge they are not. They’re a bunch of middle class shite-the-beds. Think Rick from the Young Ones.
As mentioned Ritchie still is SWP AFAIK.
Is all this discussion on RBB and his Commie tendencies born out of an avowal that Hanafin is in fact, a Nazi?
I don’t know about Hanafin…I can see Dermot Ahearne donning toothbrush mustache and uniform though…
I’d have thought given his enthusiasm for Blasphemy legislation, that Dermo would be more at home in a uniform something like these guys
https://wiki.urbandead.com/images/7/77/Spanish_inquisition.jpg
