Has Dublin high-end residential auction market died ?


#61

I do know it well. I actually laid some pipe down that laneway all right. Not that way you sick f*ck, it had fibre in it. Not that kind of fibre. Oh never mind.


#62

It would appear Observer35 was on to something. Numbers suggest that the high end in Dublin is over the hump.

Most 4- and 5-bed categories are down y-o-y in Dublin, see p 11 here (daft.ie/report/q4-2016-daft- … t-2016.pdf)

Pinster aspirations: four- and five-beds in D6, D14 and South County are down between 2% and 9%

Three-bed semis in Roscommon are up 20% yoy. I had thought for a while they were undervalued!


#63

Lot’s of red - this is because people cant borrow enough, but not to worry the cartel will soon fix that.


#64

How would lending rules be driving the very high end?

Have heard it said before that a >€500k mortgage is hard to come by no matter what your income these days.


#65

maybe over 1m but i dont think a mortgage over 500k is difficult if you have the income to support


#66

I believe the income multiple goes down but the LTV can remain high.

You might only get 2x LTI but 80% LTV is not a problem, and having more equity doesn’t enable a higher LTI.

This is pretty sensible since it is preferable to the bank that you sustain mortgage payments rather than forcing you to sell.


#67

TBH, I think anyone would be crazy to get a mortgage over 500K. What if you had some sort of illness or something else happens to you that your income drops (or stops)? I’d be asking questions to myself as to why I need to borrow for a 1M house when a 500K house would probably suffice and I would be in very little debt.


#68

You sell the house and buy a cheaper one. That requires you to have sufficient equity since that bad event is likely to hit your borrowing capacity, which in turn requires that property prices don’t fall off a cliff.

Putting aside irrational reasons (e.g. Veblen effect), a 1m house is likely to be much more appealing than a 500k house. It might represent the difference between living close to work and social life or having a long commute and seeing friends less often.

From an economics perspective, debt is a means to smooth lifetime consumption. For many people, housing needs peak relatively early in life when we have children. There’s not much point in raising kids in a small 3 bed and then buying a large four/five bed house in your sixties.

Also, 500k doesn’t buy much in the more expensive parts of Dublin. New build townhouses in Goatstown are 800k, for instance.


#69

again not my experience, i have recently taken a mortgage at well above 500k and the standard rules applied albeit my LTV was more like 70% rather than 80%, but the income limits werent at 2x


#70

all depends on where you live and where you want to be doesnt it,

a 500k house where i was looking would have been a downgrade on the apartment im selling, also one takes the necessary precautions against loss of income, illness etc with insurance and a manageable LTV

its all relative, a 500k house in wexford is a mansion, a 1m house in SCD is most likely a recently built terrace or semi d or a gutted 50 year old semi d


#71

Maybe it depends on the bank and the type of income.

In our case it was KBC and Ulsterbank and two self-employed people. We started with KBC and then asked UB to match the offer when KBC became useless.

The budget was based on my own stress-testing with a scenario where we both returned to regular salaried employment.


#72

gotcha

we are both salaried employees so maybe a little different


#73

Is it just me or has a lot of €2m plus property arrived on the market.

…and WTF is this Open Viewing thing on €2m plus houses. If I am selling a house at that level I’d want my buyers vetted.

CO


#74

That’s a bit too rarefied for me but I’d been keeping an eye on €800k to €1m and definitely a huge flurry of those properties in the last couple of weeks. I’d been meaning to post about it, but was waiting to make sure I wasn’t imagining things. The autumn selling season is cranking up, of course, but I reckon there is an additional mood of cashing out at the top of the market pre-Brexit and peak of global economic growth. My interim analysis of myhome.ie also indicates south Dublin asking prices tipping up again after languishing for a couple of quarters.

Final desperate splurge before the next downturn? 8DD


#75

The property section in the times the last couple of weeks has nearly been thicker than the paper itself


#76

Here we are at the height of the Spring sales period but who can judge the current state of the market?

Why don’t the IT and Indo report anymore on actual sales in their weekly property supplements? During the Celtic Tiger years, the weekly auction reports were a key barometer, especially at this time of year. Why aren’t houses auctioned in Dublin nowadays? The atmosphere in the auction room and the subsequent publicity was a major driver of the price boom. Have the banks been told not to extend credit for auctions or have they just learned to be wary?

Paradoxically, after the introduction of the PPR, we have less real-time information about the market.

The sales of 4737 residential properties in Dublin were registered on the property price register so far this year but this says nothing about the current sales because almost all of these properties were sold in late 2018. Of these, 175 are listed at 1 Million+ Euro. About 15 are multiple units and another 20 or so seem mispriced e.g. small apartments. So there are about 140 homes propertly registered as being sold over one million. There are only a handful of houses over 3 Million and the highest price achieved was 4.8 Million for Rostellan on Temple Road, a bargain by Celtic Tiger standards and 400,000 less than asking.
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/rostellan-29-temple-road-dartry-dublin-6-d06-v4h5/4213942

In short, there was a strong market last year for Dublin houses in the 1 - 2 Million range but only very exceptional properties went over 3 Million. Myhome.ie currently lists 77 properties in the 2 to 3 Million range and 43 more properties at 3 million or over (including some POA). I doubt if we will see more the 60 properties achieve in excess of 2 Million with perhaps 10 going over 3 million. That gives a lucky buyer at this level (not LeF3., sadly) plenty of leverage and eventually supply/demand will also begin to shift in favour of buyers in the 1- 2 Million range.