Health and Social Budget overruns - making the rest moot

Source is the fiscal council, and given yesterdays numbers out of HSE this is actually going to get much worse.

Hi guys this is or should be a graph of the overrun we are looking at.

If that continues we are going to see an overrun of +1B , which is going to knock any property tax etc into the high end

This is frankly appalling as the troika stuff is locked. Fuck knows where they’ll find it.

Surprised that the social protection over-runs are so much higher than health. Where are these coming from - I would have assumed they made a reasonable forecast of the numbers claiming benefit (which have been reasonably flat?) Plus they should be making savings from the existing - I reported someone late last year and it still doesn’t seem to have been actioned.

€bn on the Y axis?

Yeah , don’t reall think its €bn … but anyway

here is the link to the fiscal council report … mber-2012/

Now correct me if I’m wrong the budget is predicated on a troika-agreed 3.5bn of consolidation to get down sliced 1.25 in tax increases, and 2.25 in cuts. ( and Kenny, Noonan have said at the moment they only want to get 500 million out of property tax ) - you can get this stuff from from the EAP review.

That graph looks like it will = 1bn by budget. Therefore they will either roll the deficit into 2013 and start ( E.g HSE new budget = (already cut 2013 budget LESS those cuts you couldn’t do in 2012 ) OR we see other cuts OR we see unplanned tax hikes to fix the issue

  • and that’s only to fix 2013 - what do they to to fix the 2012 problem. According to that the DSP and HSE will run out of cash in mid-November so they cannot do nothing.

My guess for 2013 - we will see soon some serious groaning out of Finance and I think the rhetoric around the property tax rate , and any tax talks will become extremely stony-faced. This also has the potential to be a Croke Park breacher unless they get it in check

in trying to figure this out we see that HSE is wonderful and publishing statistics, and DSP is brutal . HSE do a detailed monthly update for the amount of money get DSP should be shot.

Tell me I’m wrong. The only other option I can see is to do a mini-Greece and ignore the problem

Where do you think they will look? PAYE people have been very bad and must be further punished for their heinous crimes of living here and working!

Well I hope no one on this board is surprised - the money is going to

Doctors, Nurses, HSE executives, Agency staff etc. - all being paid 3 - 4 times more than the slovakian equivalents but Slovakia is bailing Ireland out

Also it is being paid to 100’s of o thousands of unemployed people who would be crazy to take ajob for less thatn 40K

Expect a possible supp. estimate soon or the numbers ain’t gonna balance . Reilly and loughlin should really be taking a bullet on this

Welfare will have a Supplementary Estimate (their 2nd this year btw after a revision over PRSI) before year end as it is a demand led scheme.

HSE probably won’t have a Supp. Estimate, similar to last year, where c. 300m overrun for 2011 was taken off their 2012 budget. 2012’s overrun looks like hitting 500m, so chances are almost no non-emergency medical procedures until Jan and the 500m gets taken of 2013’s already reduced budget.

You were right Duisigh. HSE is getting supplementary budget, as now confirmed by Howlin … 02213.html

Extra €1bn for two departments … ing29.html

Snuck in yesterday under the radar.

the welfare state model is broken - can’t be sustained - UK have realised this too late but are now trying to address it.

It will take an age in Ireland before it is addressed as the culture of dependency suits politicians

By my calculations, Social Protection’s spend has been as follows

21.1bn in 2011 (actual)
21.2bn in 2012 (estimate, by adding announced 685M to orginal budget of €20.546bn)
20.5bn in 2013 (estimate)

2012 is HIGHER than 2011 and the Gov says their measures are working!

Didn’t the troika haul them up over this in the unpublished last report ?

"Seriously lads - 400 million over … ? " where do you magic this stuff up from. Half the point of the last few years was to put systems and procedures in to avoid EXACTLY this, and reilly and loughlin swore fuckin blind they wouldn’t go over ( remember this is their first full year and they got a bye last year because they said it was the other crowd’s fault )

I’m not saying it’s not broken… but where do you see the key problem to be so certain of this?

not sure where you go but 33bn in taxes to end of November and SW spend is 21.2bn

Comes a point where people working cannot keep subsidising a lifestyle that is not that much worse than they have

the gap between life you have working and life you have not working is getting too narrow

That all makes sense to me. I was wondering whether you saw it in terms of demographic shifts (too many old people) or social shifts (too many people who never get off the dole).

But many of the people who are on the dole now were once employed during the boom (we had a very low unemployment rate, and a workforce that was even larger than today), so some of them can be persuaded to work it is just a matter of opportunity and incentives. You’d have to wonder how low we would have gotten unemployment if the benefits had been trimmed way back (or simply kept lower) during the boom. As it is, benefits have largely remained unchanged, while work has become harder to find and less rewarding.

Can it become sustainable by reducing benefits (stacking the incentives differently)?

There is one fact that we have to bear in mind - there are no jobs out there for a lot of people. Just cutting the dole and making it more attractive to work won’t magically create jobs that are not there today; it might have the effect of encouraging Irish people to work at menial jobs that we are (still) importing eastern europeans to do. Is this a politically palatable discussion, or even have a significant effect?

I don’t know how to lay out a table correctly but you can see that from 2009 onwards we’ve had 50,000 immigrants from the EU15 to EU 27 states, running at about 10k a year the last 3 years.

NOTE : I am not in any way suggesting that immigrants are unwelcome in Ireland. Merely questioning a country with so many unemployed still importing workers

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 EU15 to EU27 states 34.1 49.9 85.3 54.7 21.1 9.3 10.1 10.4

Source; … able=PEA12

Even assuming we reversed that trend it’s not going to solve the structural issues.

On the other hand If SW was cut and the money saved was put into capital projects that generated employment and created infrastructure there could be a virtuous cycle. Sinn Fein proposed a big plan to upgrade the broadband network, thats the sort of thing that we should IMO be looking at

+1 on that.

There should be more capital expenditure generating more jobs, therefore tax receipts and less dole.

Current expenditure should be cut back to fund that.

Add in what i said on the croke park thread about lower public sector wages but keeping numbers and you get more working, less dole again and probably a better service too.

(it now takes up to 2 weeks to get a response to an email from Revenue - efficenies eh?)

Pity the government are doing everything they can to use current expenditure to maintain the status quo to the detriment of capital expenditure and everyone not inside the golden circle.

Oh FFS sake.

Do count the right things when you compare government income to government expenditure.

You can magic away PRSI if you like, but all you do is give grist to the people who’ll say you haven’t a clue what you’re talking about.

And they’ll be right.

Seems no pot was left untouched to cover cost overruns in other parts of the health services - we really are governed by scumbags: … 54932.html